Member Info for PrivateRyan

And it would also explain Hurricane's warrant position .

Maybe I am clutching at straws.........but it would fir in with the year or so discussions that were going on with potential partners running up to the FDA meeting- motif were clearly planning some kind of partnership because they had decided not to set up their own sales team.

Whether we can achieve the plan in our current distressed situation is the big question.But I think there is still hope ,particularly if there is a potential future income stream to factor into the valuation of the company .
YOURS
DR PANGLOSS!

I think they are definitely seeking a partnership and a retention of interest in future iclaprim assets as deferred consideration /partnership income ,together with an initial lump sum.Some extracts below .Would fit in with previous graham utterances about being in talks with global pharmas to commercialise

We believe that the most efficient way to generate future value from iclaprim is for a partner or other entity with a lower cost of capital to complete the HABP/VABP Phase III trial and commercialize the asset globally.

Motif Bio plc is proposing a corporate restructure ('Proposed Restructuring') that we believe will allow the shareholders of Motif Bio plc to benefit from the monetization of the iclaprim asset (above the amounts owed to Hercules and other obligations of Motif BioSciences Inc.), while being relieved of the liability and guarantee for the Hercules loan.

Motif BioSciences Inc. is expected to immediately wind down operations and hire an advisor to facilitate the sale of its iclaprim and other assets, ideally by transacting with a company that intends to develop and commercialize iclaprim;

Hercules will benefit from the future success of Motif Bio and potential upside in a successful monetization of iclaprim.
would have the benefit of any potential upside from the sale of, or development and commercialization of, the iclaprim asset once Hercules receives repayment of the loan, repayment of other liabilities of Motif BioSciences Inc., and costs of sale and/or wind down of Motif BioSciences Inc.;

The Proposed Restructuring would mean that the existing obligations under the loan facility are better aligned with our strategy, namely to bring one or more assets into Motif Bio without the burden of the debt obligations to Hercules, and for Motif Bio to be able to benefit from any upside from the sale of, or development and commercialization of, the iclaprim asset once Hercules receives repayment of the loan, repayment of other liabilities of Motif BioSciences Inc., and costs of sale and/or wind down of Motif BioSciences Inc.

Based on the CRL and further communications with the FDA, the Group is of the view that significant funding will be required to advance the iclaprim asset. The Group is also unlikely to be able to fund the advancement of the asset without a partner that has a materially lower cost of capital and other synergies with the iclaprim asset.

The Group continues to believe that a regulatory pathway will be available. However, there remains uncertainty whether the path forward would be economically viable. The minutes of the meeting are expected to be received within 30 days

Hercules will receive a warrant for an additional 20% of Motif Bio's post capital raise outstanding ordinary shares at an exercise price of 5 pence (subject to adjustment). With this warrant position, Hercules will benefit from the future success of Motif Bio and potential upside in a successful monetization of iclaprim

oops posted without finishing
What I have included here is an extract from RULE 15 of aim
The point I was going to make is that under that rule MOTIF can retain some interest in the assets proided it is not substantial- it doesnt have to sell the whole asset to be a cash shell company .
I read the half year report again and will post some extracts in a minute which leads me to believe their plan is to sell he asset to a partner but retain some interest in the future income from the asset .

Where the effect of a disposal is to divest the AIM company of all, or substantially
all, of its trading business, activities or assets; and/or
— Where an AIM company takes any other action, the effect of which is that it will
cease to own, control or conduct all, or substantially all, of its existing trading
business, activities or assets (in which case such action should be notified without
delay and include all relevant information that shareholders may require)
upon completion of the disposal or action, the AIM company will be regarded as an AIM
Rule 15 cash shell.

Taking into account the keep the lights on share issue ,and assuming the 600k raised is used on expenses, we currently have 484 million shares in issue.
The liability to hercules is around 5.6m sterling
Current share price is 0.006 p which indicates there is a market assumption there is positive value after paying off the loan
That assumption leads to a monetisation value of 8.5m sterling in total.
At a 20m monetisation the share price would be 3p
At a 30m monetisation the share price would be 5p At that stage the warrants could kick in and provide a further 4.8m asset on a share injection of 96 million .(20 per cent of 484 million)
At a 40m monetisation,and assuming warrants exercised I reckon the share price would be around 6.7p
Each extra 10m monetisation would add 1.7p to the share price.
So 100m moetisation should equate to 17p
I make no comment on what the value should be or will be ,but this should I hope give an indication of the financial impacts of different values .

You do not understand. It is clear from your post. Nor does l b 28. I am not patronising you I am telling you the home truth. You haven’t a clue and are pretending you have

My own view is that the FDA performed poorly in dealing wih us on the phase 3 trials ....but we should have had a contingency plan.
It would be great if we had a partner but we are in a distressed situation so odds may be against us....
lets wait and see and ignore the chaff eh!

agreed Ivy- I note the board were happy in the interims to talk about the FDA latest meeting without the minutes but didnt say anything last time until the minutes were received as that would not be form.....
I have lost a packet here but it was down to me wholly-the right call that went wrong. it happens.
I will do some work tomorrow to figure out what valuation of iclaprim we need to break even after paying off hercules and what the effect of different valuations might be. nite

I share your disappointment Godfather! idiots on here now either certain of huge gains or the death of the company- no thought going into the posts .
eg Rosie saying the cash shell is low risk- obviously doesnt understand there may be no cash left!
LB and stocktracker have no shame - keep ramping the same old ****e every day without reference to the stock price actuality. day after day ramping here and elsewhere and to NIL EFFECT .
Then we have the derampers - god knows why they bother -little left to glean at this level of share price.And no discussion of the potential that there might be residual value .
What the value is we do not know - but all these posters do not know they do not know.Just fools wasting their breath and out time.
We are where we are and it is pointless to spout all this drivel until the next news event - the minutes i expect.
But the fools will continue because they think they make a difference.They dont

no Latino- it is grammar- you have a "warrant over" something

This board is more polarised than Brexit debate!
The plain truth is we do not know what the value of iclaprim is - how could we .And he certainty on both sides is infantile.
The value of the shares depends on the residual value .full stop.We have to wait and see.
BUT I would say we may not have to wait long as 600k is not that much money!!!!!

As i speculated yesterday it is only a keep the lights on fund raise to buy the time to organise a sale of the asset.
I would rather a dilution of this size to get a much smaller proportion of a much bigger pie than get zilch .
the next step is the sale.
someone is happy to spend 600k so there must be a channce of a better outcome than going bust- who knows what that will be .Starting to look like this was not knee jerk but a contingency plan.Have they already talked to potential partners about htis potential outcome? Lets see how it pans out.
ps ignore all the deferred shares stuff -it is purely mechanics.
slightly more hopeful now there will be some value going forward.
But I wouldnt be investing if I wasnt already in here btw

ps I agree with genghis about the crux of the matter ,all I am doing is saying there might be different ways other than a straight sale

ivy can you remember how much the previous incarnation of iclaprim was purchased by motif for?

Odds are well against this but some hope I think. GL did say they were talking to many potential commercial partners in exciting jurisdictions such as Japan. So maybe an auction for the sale or maybe a joint venture with several drug companies?
Secondly if you look at the RNS it does say they wish to sell iclaprim preferably to a partner who wants to develop and commercialise ,and also mention in point 2 upside from the sale of , OR DEVELOPMENT AND COMMERCIALIZATION OF ,the Iclaprim asset.. So they may be hoping they can keep some interest in future income. Thoughts welcome but whilst I dont think he has the courage at some stage GL shoud really do an interview to clarify all this -the legalistic paras do not help

idiot- I have oodles of these and I retain them- you dont know what you are talking about

shorters have already sold- they then hope to buy back at a lower price and return the stock to the original group that loaned them the stock in the first place- you dont understand shorting so keep your mouth shut please rather than waste everyones time with nonsense.
too many bull****ters on b boards

market makers mark the stock down at open but there is no selling pressure and no volume just small p i s conservinng their capital
Its a keep it going fund raise at a price we would have been happy with pre fda clearance and with minimal dilution
I think they see cash coming in from transactions over the next year and that will mean no further raises/dilution.

Maybe they have only raised 500k because they dont see a need for more?

sheltie-agree totally- I always ignore that opinion box-new investors should not be buying this unless its a gambling punt

Ivy ignore that idiot

its gambling- not sure that you have go that analysis right- i think the intention is that hercules will be repaid from proceeds from a sale of iclaprim ,and the fund raise is to keep the lights on until it can be sorted - we hope the proceeds will give shareholders an excess over that liability.Still think we are stuffed but there is a slight hope.