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Specialist100 as you appear to be a detail fan I make it 24.975.

to get to this figure I used a simplified calculation. I used your 25p and subtracted 0.025p for the sake of it.

87p...party.

I think that was an Uncas/Fatal debate many years back on ii.

5p?

I would suggest that technical are out the window here. The next RNS will be defining one way or the other. If it is a bad result then we are unlikely to stop at 5p. Two negative hits and we will re-test the lows of 2p.
On the flip side a positive conclusion on either of the next two RNS will see a floor re-set above 10p, good news on both and we could well be north of 20p.
Neither event can be worked on a technical analysis as the outcomes are as yet unknown (or at best known to a select few and awaiting validation)

I have worked on an operational efficiency of 98.5% for the rig allowing for both planned preventative maintenance and exceptional maintenance. If anything I think this puts me at the upper end the spectrum given the location and weather disruption risks.
I am happy to be corrected to industry standards to revise the estimate.
I am also willing to point out an error in my previous post where I took the $3 and used £3 on a 1:1 exchange.
the rate 8 - 9% whilst valid broadly at the moment will change if/when they become an oil producer, and within the retained profit calculation used I would expect the debt to be addressed unless the rate of return on future projects was greater than the rate of finance.

@ Stewart3250
worth noting that the royalty due to Bahamas Govt is based on the production volumes.
Also without offering a counter value to the analysis from the self proclaimed specialist there is a danger in over inflating the SP as the analysis assumes full value is realised in the short term.
If we work on the 2.45bn est and a production rate of 200k bpd you are looking at c. 34years to recover the oil.

If we go down the route of self sufficient extraction and 200k bpd with £3 pb profit (bottom line profit) that gives c. £216m p.a available for distribution to shareholders (dividend).
If we work on 50% retained for future business development that gives £108m p.a.
Again no challenge to the dilution rate at c. 4bn shares in issue that would give 2.7p per share as a dividend.
If you work on a range of 3% - 4% yield that would give an SP between 68p and 90p.

ATB

Fatal had a Charm about him...
Uncle Uncas was a well informed person.
I would like to think that they are both here in some way, shape or form.
Good to see you Noble (findme)

it is pretty good here.
82f (28c) dry and (mostly) sunny with a bit of a breeze.
perfect weather to take a ride up into the hills. Fingers crossed we are not playing the follow on by the time I get back later.

play nicely today

- Mark@1973 -
I did put together a working model in a simple excel format that let you plug in multiple variables. I have no doubt some were missed or over simplified for a purest - If you keep it simple it is easy to throw together.
After running through a variety of scenarios - both ends of the spectrum in terms of upper and lower bounds on variables with outputs for total asset value and operational values with dividend rates, I pulled the plug.
It becomes a bit of a fools errand because there are/were so many unknowns.
I came to the conclusion that if there is a commercially viable outcome the most likely end game in my mind was a major buy out.
If that assumption plays out it will be a number way below the full value of the asset but realised in much shorter timeframe.
I do not see BPC taking the prospect full term even in my most rose tinted glasses.

Scsiborg, I know, I shouldn't. It feels a bit like puppy kicking.
I too recognise the name and the tone of the poster. However, LSE records show them as a newbie. I do not bother with the filter as even a stopped clock is right twice a day. But I will avoid further interaction with them, clearly a wind up merchant.

best of luck finding a trader to fix your volar barton fracture when you are in Verbier over winter.
I'll look out for you and offer to drop your snowboard off for recycling.

no matter the quality or validity of the message it is often lost if the delivery is poor.

LTH take heart, the arrival of the less civil posters often indicates additional share activity, for better or worse is to be seen. Some will be here for a quick profit and will vanish again as soon as they have their fill. Others like empty vessels arrive, make a great deal of noise and have little content of value.

Even great traders need doctors, teachers, lawyers, emergency personnel, logisticians and even refuse collection people. Happily they will need you long before you need them.
Me, I am clearly not intelligent enough to be a trader. I am however happily retired long before I turn 50 so maybe, just maybe it was all blind luck? Or, maybe, not all smart people are traders.

Thoughts and prayers go out to the people of The Bahamas at this time.

"I going now 2 make real money"

do you have all of the crayons you need for that?

to day trade?
not suggesting that is the reason, just that it is a possible reason.
Everyone makes money in a way that works for them.

Do I object to day traders? No.
Do I object to shorters coming in and making money when the SP is volatile? No.

The only element I object to is the disingenuous actions employed by some elements of both day traders and shorters.
It would be great to see a shorter post that they have gone short here, or elsewhere, give a reasoned argument for why they feel the SP is over inflated and have a grown up discussion on the merits. Maybe if us LTHs enter into the discussion without just shouting them down it might help.

Happy to debate the merits of any short?

He went off a little early there. I hope it is not a common issue for him to fire off just a tad too soon.
Nice to see the day traders back on the board.
Are you going long or short I wonder....

RNS:
mixed view, we have a back up plan in place.
Does the back up plan and the RNS act as a trigger for potential farm in partners to get a deal done or does it exist because the farm in prospects are not as good as we would like?
Share options - ouch.

of all the things I have lost whilst watching and waiting for the BPC tale to unfold I miss my marbles most.

Over the past 10+ days BPC has exhibited many of the traits of a good blue chip share.
stay with me on this one.
Share price has been very stable trading within a predictable range retrospectively.
Almost zero volatility in terms of spread. At no point in the past 10 days has the spread been wider than 0.2p.
No mention of BPC or any BPC employee in any of the UK Tabloid press for anything not related to BPC business.
Dividend payment stable year on year.
Dividend payment more than covered by current assets.
BOD interests aligned to share performance. (OK so there is still an argument that Basic Salary is a little on the high side - but much more can be made from share performance)
Great cost control - operational costs falling YOY over the past 5 years.

OK so there are a few key elements of a blue chip we are missing but let's not fall out over the small details like achievements met against objectives set, or profit, or comms, or shareholder value add, or...or...or...

OK so BPC would be a rubbish blue chip. I take it all back. I thought I was on to a winner at first.

(Much like the BPC story)

Share price was looking good.
23rd August 2019 would be a good day to drop an RNS just for symmetry on the SP.
Go on BPC drop the big one on Friday.

(still not expecting it much before the end of 2019.)

locally sourced oil readily available....soon?

Thank you Spirite and Parpaing, no need to apologise for doing a bit of reading and digging for the good of the BB. Great find, interesting even if not directly BPC related.
Bahamas are open for business if nothing else.
If they think that is an economic game changer wait till BPC starts making royalty payments for all that oil....I hope.