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As sad as it may be I am looking forward to 'closure' on the BPC story.
It has been a great journey and superb learning curve.
I will miss it when for better or worse the final hand is played but I will be pleased to see it out to a conclusion.

very good post Bryn.
I did however post a SP guess. I have chastised myself for doing so but will look for a suitable birch branch to ensure I am motivated better in future. I did caveat it and give a spread, however I was not clear that it was a hypothesis price for my what if scenarios.

for newbies or prospective newbies, or just those new to AIM. I would suggest looking at BBs of AIM shares that experience significant SP moves to see how the nature of BB posts changes.
Before I get posts saying that posts to a BB do not move a SP, I agree the impact is minimal but can increase liquidity. For some traders that play in the margins game that is all they need.
I am not suggesting ignore them, just try to understand the motivation. There are one or two who amidst the posts of 10x by tea time or no substance to the rise and it will be back below a penny by breakfast there are some genuine knowledgeable posts.

Dutch, that is both fair and unfair.
has SP been over paid? I think he has.
has SP delivered value for shareholders? to date, I do not think so.
has SP worked to get BPC to where it is today? yes, I think so. I am most pleased that he has acknowledged his short-comings in terms of deal making with the appointment of Macquarie.

I also suspect he has made giant strides in his golf handicap and his sun tan.

Has he achieved as much as I would like? no.
but he has done more than nothing.

sorry Bryn, and for other posters who read my post as a price prediction it is not intended as such.
It should have been clearer. The end price could be anywhere with a deal. We simply do not have enough information to have an educated estimate.
It will very much depend on any terms the major imposes, and at this stage of the game I do think the major is in a place to dictate terms to a degree.

What I would say is that any holders who have read deep enough into the post history or those who have been here since the birth of the dinosaurs I no longer have as much faith in an 87p party as I once did.

I do have a plan to top slice if we see a decent RNS and associated SP rise, I would be happy to discuss it but my plan will and should be different to everyone else's plan on the basis it is highly unlikely that our holdings or financial circumstances and targets are aligned.

My suggestion is to have a fair idea of what you plan, but keep it fluid as the news flows and the SP moves. Run through various 'what if...' scenarios and make sure you are comfortable with how each may play out for you personally. Be ready.

Oh and I predict the SP for a stock you have never heard of XOXOXOX will 10 bag from here based on maude the cleaner reading an article in her glossy tv mag that said in 10 years time we will all be living on Mars and eating freeze dried insects. You heard it here first.

I agree, on news we will be past 6, 7, 8 in no time.
There are many private investors who have been part of the BPC story but left out of frustration at timelines that would flood back in. There will be a raft of new money just because of the share price movements (day traders).
It would not surprise me if this alone took us back to the 8+p range
There will be the true value shift over and above this. Depending on the deal we could be anywhere. Living in hope rather than expectation of an 87p party.
More realistic 20 - 50p range will do very nicely.

I get the frustration Scsiborg. I understand it only too well.
Do I have anything to add in terms of new news? No I do not.
I suspect that BPC are in the same place, they have nothing new to share.
Talks are probably ongoing.
They are either progressing well or they are not.
I do not see what new news they could release at this stage that would satisfy the masses other than that the talks have concluded one way or the other.
Everything else is BAU.

Bigoiler: how long is a piece of string?
P_I: still twice the length from the middle to the end.

How long till SP says to his team 'ok, release the RNS' ?
It feels like twice the time from the dawn of time to now.
There is probably cave graffiti comparing the speed BPC make deals at with the slow plodding nature of a 3 legged diplodocus.

when talking near future you need to think of the context of the subject matter. Near future in retail probably has a farm to fork cycle of days or weeks.
Oil is by its nature altogether slower. Thousands of millennia in the making, I am OK to wait just a little longer. (weeks and months now Mr P not years anymore.)

I will however be devastated if all we dig up is parsnips.

tap out?....never.
I am either going out like a champion or out on my back.

sorry if this message now appears twice. Looks to have glitched.
I like the wishful thinking.

If there is a desire from BPC to make a big news announcement at the AGM I suspect it will be a case that the AGM date is pushed back to accommodate the news rather than the news being suppressed to coincide with the AGM.
A delayed AGM is one of the positive signs I am looking for. Not a normal positive.

I also agree that the back end of the year is more likely. November would be nice, I have said before December feels more likely.

just a note to highlight the general demeanour of the BB for BPC.
I find it very refreshing that the most recommended post I have seen here for some time is Molokai sharing his holiday experience.
Faith in human nature restored for another day.

Ray Hoy? Author of the Jack Frost books?
kudos.

congratulations on getting the balance correct. There is a time and a place for fact finding and research.
From experience rum is a great tool to release creativity and genius, it is not however known for helping when it comes to research or fact finding.

No matter how much oil we find - even at the top end of estimates - with all the wealth it will generate for members of the board and for the people of the Bahamas the best export from the region will always be rum. The happiest alcohol in the world?
(I exclude Wray and Nephew from this as it just makes me fall asleep, needs more fruit and mixers)

I have an answer on the length of the string. It holds true in all cases I have tested against so far, however, that is no guarantee of future correctness.
To date, I have observed that all strings are twice the distance from the middle to the end.
As for BPC, to date the wait has proven to be twice the time from the middle of my holding period to today. This is further complicated if I look for the weighted average time.
I am assured through reading that the answer to all questions, life, the universe and everything is 42. (and thanks for all the fish)

I suspect that the unit of measure may need to be adjusted to make this true in all cases.

I am just looking forward to the run of days where BPC sits top of the share movers board.
3 or 4 days like the one at the top today would be nice for a start.
5 or 6 like Thomas Cook today would be a good show.

Still believe there is a chance for us to see those days here, would like to have them sooner rather than later but do not expect much before November.
For now I will make do with amusing myself with random poor humoured posts from time to time here. Add in a handful of other holdings to keep me on my toes and that will do for me.

I agree with the end of December as a target date. If no news by then we are getting close to dreams of what might have been.
The only way I can see Q1 2020 is if the Rig is in place (behind closed doors) with a full drill programme ready to go and assured of Govt approval to proceed.
Then the real fun begins.
Shorters talking the most ridiculous tripe.
Rampers with promises of £2.00 by Wednesday.
Environmentalists with concerns about how drilling for oil in The Bahamas will cause the extinction of a Butterfly only found in Tasmania - but not seen in 70 years.
The Church raising objections on how drilling will delay the second/third/n th coming of the Messiah.
And Angry Mavis of Hove (note the distinction not Brighton and Hove) writing to the rant of the week column in her red top rag of choice about how if they can drill for oil in the Bahamas it is only a matter of time before they can start Fracking in Liz and Phil's back garden in Windsor.

I might sell out at that point and invest in a new venture selling unicorn hides, Panda Livers and pickled dolphin babies.

i'll buy more at 1p.

Jim, whilst I agree that the words of a BB warrior is not going to move the SP more than a change in wind direction will, there are those amongst holders that are easily spooked or easily taken in.
I think if the BB warriors do any damage it is more to create liquidity within the market allowing them to mop up or sell out more readily at the prevailing SP...

As for my royal heritage, potato is a new one, but I have been called a right royal pr..k on more than one occasion. I think that is one of the more positive views of me.

as per most on here I keep an eye on other prospects in the oil and gas world. Some I have an active interest in others just as a casual observer.
This week I have mostly been a voyeur on a BB where I hold no stock and have no plans to change that.
They had a 100% plus rise on a day earlier this week on an RNS so a positive story.
Having had posts removed on this BB previously for cross share chat I will hold off the name but they are linked to a very picturesque island closer to the UK mainland than BPC famous for the wonderful potatoes.

Now whilst the reason behind the shift in the share price was interesting the reaction and posts to the BB are the bit that I was interested in.
The tactics used by posters clearly looking for a quick return. Both rampers and doomsayers.
Those with time to spare it is well worth a read as I expect something very similar to happen on the BPC board when our time comes. I have no doubt that some of the posters on the board were influenced to make decisions they would not have done if not for the posts.

Book in early, should be standing room only*. Based on the BB activity here over the past 48 hours.

*on the basis they hold the AGM in an old red phone box.

POC.
One of the biggest BPC fears I have is the lack of clarity on why the major ended the exclusivity.
We have all read the postings here but I doubt any of the us has inside knowledge on this.
We can suggest that it was concerns over Bahamian Government commitment - and this is a valid option. Equally there is a risk that having had 4 months to appraise the data in depth the major felt the play was not for them. Risk too high / reward not as high in their view as the reported seismics.
We may never know.

Whilst BPC are under an NDA in terms of that exclusivity deal it would be most reassuring to hear that the major with whom they had an exclusivity deal was still unnamed but involved in the negotiations. In the absence of a deal RNS that would be the most positive thing I could hope for.
That would put to bed the stories that the major had walked away.
It would remove the doubts that the major had a different view of the prospect.
It would almost certainly spark a bit of a buying frenzy here.

Do I expect it? Sadly not.