Risk vs Reward for Kistos11 Mar 2026 10:30
Hi all,
I’ve been doing some research to try to understand the situation for Kistos’ Oman assets and wanted to sanity check it with you all please, as I’m new to this game.
What I understand is:
- All of Kistos’ Oman oil gets exported from Mina Al Fahal, which is about 250 miles south east of the Strait of Hormuz.
- the Mina Al Fahal port is still operational, albeit loading tankers at a ~30% slower rate currently due to the crisis
- the Oman oil price is currently approx double its normal rate (~$120 per barrel vs recent avg of $~65), which Kistos will be benefiting from
- Kistos get paid once oil is loaded into tankers, so they will not be impacted by elevated war insurance costs for oil tankers
- Given that the port is well away from the Strait of Hormuz, tankers will continue to export oil from Oman (albeit a bit slowly) unless their infrastructure itself (port, refineries or pipelines) are damaged.
- Oman are likely to accelerate their strategic move towards exporting from their south coast (Duqm) - although it’s likely to take at least months maybe years to achieve these new pipelines.
- Iran and Oman have a good relationship and Oman are neutral in this war, so it is unlikely that Iran will make further direct strikes on Oman. But this is obviously a risk and would be very bad news if it happened.
- All in all, it seems like Kistos will benefit from this crisis given the elevated oil price and strong strategic position of Oman, geographically and politically. And of course meanwhile Balder and UK gas trading will be doing even better.
Any comments? Have I missed anything?