Member Info for ppywgda

A good start to the day. It’s so quiet on here!!

To my untrained eye, these results look fantastic!

And a positive Motley Fool article for a change - they've finally caught on 😆

https://www.fool.co.uk/2025/10/20/could-this-golden-oldie-soon-rejoin-the-ftse-250/

A handful of shares traded at 278p, is that likely to be significant?

The transfer of policies over 12 months is a separate thing to the unwinding of the negative working capital over 90 days: the working capital piece is due to the timing delay between premiums IN from customers and premiums OUT to the underwriter - if we believe the 2024 interims Q&A this "broadly" cancels out the £80m.

Whereas the gradual migration of each policy from Saga to Ageas over 12 months on the renewal date will I guess be positive for Saga in that they'll get a commission (we don't know what % yet) upfront for each policy that is renewed, and they'll also by the end of the 12 months be able to turn off whatever system was used for the admin so save that cost.

Great article! 8/10 value for money will get those Telegraph readers salivating 😄

Yeah, tbf that info is a year old now so things could have changed and he leaves it vague by saying "broadly net-off"... so hopefully there will be a bit left over from the £80m so they can do another "ahead of expectations". 🤞

I've rewatched the 2024 interim results call and think I understand what's going on now...

Currently Saga benefits from negative working capital due to insurance customer premiums, which they hold on to for between 45 and 90 days before passing those premiums on to the underwriter (which they've now sold).

When the Ageas partnership kicks in, that benefit will unwind over the first 90 days, as the most recent premiums received will still need to be passed on the the underwriter.

The CFO says that "broadly the £80m [from Ageas] will net-off that working capital outflow".

So the net cash for Saga (and Ageas) at the start of the partnership is actually zero, and the £80m cannot be used to pay down more debt, instead it will be paid back to Ageas over the first 90 days.

Which explains why the £80m wasn't trumpeted in the 2025 interims.

Thanks rupans

Am I right in thinking that the £80m being paid by Ageas for the partnership deal will be completely cancelled out ('netted off') by £80m of working capital that will need to be provided by Saga over the first 3 months after the deal is complete? There is some discussion of this in the 2024 interim Q&A bit I'm not confident I understand it.

Falling interest rates won't help much actually, most of the debt is fixed rate. But might help longer term I suppose if and when they refinance.

This is a lovely setup - lots of investors have got bored of this, yes there is still a lot of debt but it is coming down and there is now a credible path to recovery and growth. This will rerate nicely over the next couple of years imho.

I like that he points out the patronising quote from ii "well done to holders who got lucky with the recent rally"

Maybe next time I should just stick it all on red and hope for the best!

Thanks I will read that later.

This is the sweet spot for Saga I've been waiting for - where business recovery is obvious, market perception is improving rapidly, share price momentum is stunning, and share price is still pretty good value. Not sure it gets any better than this for any investment? (Genuine question!)

Nice one aspers.

Impressive patience!!

Thanks Greyhair for the encouragement!

One post. Mic drop. Love it :)

Thanks jetstar, very interesting indeed!

What a week! Great presentation by Mike - you can sense his confidence growing. Just a brilliant recovery playing out now as the share price starts to re-engage with reality.

This is all tremendously exciting!

Unbelievably the IC have given it a HOLD rating today! Article title is "Saga’s turnaround gathers pace but debt concerns linger"

I guess its this level of "investment insight" that allows such deep value situations to happen 🙃

Not at all bad!