Member Info for Porky9

I can't imagine there being much now to report on until early March when we see what the H1 trading figures to end of Dec 23 look like. So this is a period for them to get their heads down and prove they can deliver and get this business to break even.

Myself, i can't see them reaching Break even in this financial year. In addition to trying to secure more contracts they need to get the diversification into Biostats going but the appointment of Dr Venkata Putcha, as Head of Biostatistics only happened recently and i bet he's a 100k+ appointment so if anything we will see the cost base increase further before we see revenues adding from Biostats and this will take time to establish. Two months in the job to the end of H1 wont be long enough and i suspect he would need longer than the H2 period, even hitting the ground running, before he can turn in a profit from Biostats work.

Meanwhile, the simply wall street news article i don't think will have helped the share price either. The share price adjustment yesterday could be a rebound from that article now that all AGM resolutions have been confirmed as passed at the end of last week and there was no kick back to the salary levels being paid on the previous poor financial performance:-

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/shareholders-may-object-pay-rise-050424361.html

So in all, this looks like a period now for them to prove they can turn this around but its going to take time as i see it and past track record hasn't been great has it.

GLA

Closed -10.6% down and that was following yesterday's-3% down close.

I don't consider suzy,s basic salary of £160k to be low, frankly its significantly higher than many of the posters here risking their hard earned cash on the shares the board refuse to purchase.

@Aberystwyth

For clarity: PYC is a consulting business, as such it earns consultancy fees for modelling in respect of set period projects. Hence why every year they have high client churn with projects finishing and have to fight hard to win new ones just to stand still.

It’s a long hard journey not made any easier against the sector back drop when reductions in biotech spending are a necessity to survive and external consultancy fees are the first on the list to chop or put on hold.

It is what it is

@Semantic

I'm in total agreement

This is why it’s getting harder to raise cash on the AIM, why we have the current biotech funding drought and why when many come back multiple times for more working capital raises the discounts have to be brutal. As you say you can now get over 5% on deposited sums with no risk to the capital whatsoever.

Crazy situation with some of these lifestyle companies that list on the AIM.

I mean, if you had say a small business, registered as a limited company that you started up with your own cash, friends and family perhaps even a bank loan and it was losing money EVERY year, would you still carry on with it?

But moreover, let’s say you thought ok, I’m going to run with this, borrow more cash to keep trading and you did £600k of sales but lost another £500k in doing so, would you go on again and repeat the same for the following year? In addition would you pay yourself £140k knowing the business can’t afford it or would you take a pay cut and reduce costs to get some balance?

This is the situation isn’t it, I’m fast of the opinion that in many cases being on the AIM means you can chuck basic business commercial acumen out the window and do what the fudge you like because as long as investors chuck cash at you, there is no need to illustrate any need to try and make a profit, just take what the hell you like?

It goes unchallenged?

The ramping here just like over at VAL is off the scale again!!! Give it a rest @Riddler

Look, forget acquisitions and magical money pots landing, its dead simple:-

Jim just needs to build out the mathematical modelling side, try and get the biostats new side going to add to revenues and work to reach the break even point.

IF Jim can get to break even he doesn't need anything else, the rest including the share price will take care of itself. He has a window to do that. Burning question is can he do it?

Most likely, he will need another raise Q1 2024 and the back history has not been great. but the business as it stands cant continue forever making losses. This next 18mth will be fairly key for the business IMO.

See how it goes.

@HD

I read the boards and agreed to step out short term. My intention has never been to upset anyone it’s been merely to debate an alternative view.

You meanwhile are “emotionally” invested and not thinking commercially, that’s your business

But if you want to keep disrespecting me because I have a different opinion on events, I’m quite happy to rejoin the debate here and give my opinion.

So in the nicest possible way stop with the insults.

@Sniper88

Exactly

Other issue is that its not like they can crack on at the second drill location as still awaiting drill repairs. So could still be a few weeks before they can start it.

If they are trying to raise yet again it will be brutal, they need to raise from positions of strength NOT weakness

Interesting that despite the drill purchase proving to be a perpetual lemon in the end with all the issues, all the updates about waiting on drill parts were fairly meaningless as they have effectively decided to give up on the main location and move to the second site. Clearly the site is a duster and they knew this based on the drilling that had been carried out so far and didn't need the drill repairs to drill further to confirm more of the same.

So onto the second bite at the cherry with the new location, that's providing the drill parts arrive to do so... yawn..... but lets be honest here, looks like game over to me now. A small glimmer of hope that the second site could deliver helium but we probably would have better odds buying a lottery ticket.

Exploration plays really are a 100% gamble

PS. Suspect the BE revenue figure will be higher in the current year as Pete was taken on, not sure what his deal is but even if it were £40k or whatever similar to Jim, we would need to break £1.2m of invoiced revenue in this year to break even.

That means they need to deliver more than double the revenue they delivered last year ie £600k more yet their best ever year only added £130k and really revenues have been static averaging around £800k every year but slumped last year due to the start of the biotech funding squeeze.

Going to be tough and take time to turn this around

@Laura2022

Ignoring funds, boutique investment houses, family offices and any other II or similar entities that won’t Back this business in any shape or form, heck we have very little declared holdings private over 3%, the entire shareholder base is all small traders and Private investors.

As such these private investors will be going to the likes of Hargreaves Landsdown and similar, looking at the published financial analysis on there and it doesn’t make great reading. They are unlikely to dig through every RNS to see what grants are awarded in addition to earnt revenue. The figures I stated are the PUBLISHED headlines issued.

Relying on grants to run your business is not a long term strategy is it? And as for Horizon, come on now even Jim said there were zillions of applicants across Europe. We are are in a major biotech funding drought, can you imagine the application numbers?

Just taking the headline numbers reported over last five years.

Income Statement: Last Five Years Published to 30/6 year end: £ (Millions)

Year........................................2023*.......... 2022*.......... 2021*.......... 2020*......... 2019

Revenue:................................0.60.............0.83..............0.70.............0.80.............0.72

Operating Profit / (Loss):......(0.57)..........(0.36)............(0.34)...........(0.13)..........(0.20)

The best the year they have EVER had was back in 2020 which resulted in £800k of Revenue generate and £ 130k of operating loss.

So the Revenue Required to reach break even point for each of the last five years is:-

2023 - £ 1,170,000

2022 - £ 1,190,000

2021 - £ 1,040,000

2020 - £ 930,000

2019 - £ 920,000

It is a fairly big ask assuming zero increase in overhead costs to increase revenue from £ 600k to £ 1,170,000 in this current year. Really need a lot of new contracts to come off and the new biostatics services to hit the ground running.

With respect @Laura2022 AKA the Riddler, you are the Perma Bull here and my opinion is not overly harsh or deramping or anything else going on in your head. It’s my opinion.

This stock board is to discuss this penny share play, good or bad. I like the CEO he is an honest broker, do I think he is doing a good job YES with the resources they have, do I think they can diversify YES but will take time for solid revenues of same, do I think they will BE in 2024 No, do I think they will need more investment support YES, do I think it will be a quick fix, No, it’s a journey and I really wish them well with it. Actually I would like to help Jim more! This will be a VERY slow burn for now, it’s how I see it.

Now stop just jumping to attack anyone that dares to challenge your perma bull view. Not interested. I am only interested in analysis good or bad. I have added my view following Friday’s presentation.

Agree with your analysis @DeBull

You can tell from Jim’s body language and general persona that he’s not comfortable with these probing video presentations and the two of them together are like two Uni science mates working on their next science project. They have the science knowledge but selling it to us/ average investor requires a whole new skill set.

Horses for courses and all that, you can’t not fail to like this guy but he needs help for sure. They desperately need to diversify more and the current business model is so so heavily dependent on Jim, the business would be well fooked if something happened to him that’s for sure.

The high gestation period for new, new accounts didn’t surprise me, this is a high touch complex sales process for sure. The key benefits are not quick to identify without a detailed consulting sale as I see it. A 25% conversion from tender stage probably is market average but there would be a heck of a lot of cold to warm prospect work to be done before you got to the core tender stage. He’s an honest broker and when questions came in on conversion rates, I bet in his head he was thinking “bugger off, you don’t have a clue how hard it is to win these accounts over”. I totally get it and he gave a considered reply whilst trying to avoid percentage rates. The clarity on the sales funnel is the best we have seen from the business to date imo.

I was surprised about the business being 50% new 50% existing, that actually is quite telling because if you flip it from the other side you are saying your churn rate is 50%? So you have to win a big chunk of new accounts each year just to stand still and make up for the accounts falling off the other end or have finished their project duration.

I could feel his frustration over the grant work and he went over the points in circles a bit that he had the staff here so the grant was helping pay for them but not reading the room so to speak that what the questioners were really asking was whilst staff are diverted to the grant project they are not then fully committed to working on other new paying projects we desperately need to add to get to break even.

We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact this is at core a “Consulting Business” and as such once “Consulted” a new target project needs adding. Continue building out the a) modelling side I agree BUT far more expansion into new area b) and c) essential . As it stands this will remain a slow burn as I see it until they can diversify more fully.

We haven’t heard from George or Satu with his “man the lifeboats” posts, I miss them, lol but they always played the panto horse Dobin, think George was the rear end, come to think of it :)

Out of here, Pork’s x

Yes, done

Take care

@OP

No fair enough, I wasn’t being negative and sorry it was taken that way, and I did say @JasonPugh was not to be trusted and wait for official news.

If the telegram ramping crew are giving it a break from ramping, I will say no more until the official news is confirmed.

Take care, Pork’s

As it’s outside trading hours:

Nothing to add other than to say that the halfwit @JasonPugh claims he spoke with Frank and there are Due Diligence issues with the deal which will delay it. As a result he expects VAL to place due to timings.

You all know my thoughts anyhow, totally predictable as THX are a total waste of space however, in the balance of fairness, @JasonPugh is a swing trader and not to be trusted so probably making the whole thing up.

I would await the official update and make judgement then.

@OP

A fair point made from a respectful top guy and noted

Pork’s

@OB

I feel that it’s massive wasted potential that can’t be put right with the current BOD and until Adam steps up and removes the deadwood or supports shareholders to make changes at the next AGM we are stuck with it being run as a lifestyle business.

Meanwhile, we have to endure this nonsense of never ending raises, the raise, spend, raise, spend, consolidate cycles and ridiculous business decisions from a BOD that I feel lack any commercial acumen. Harsh maybe but it’s how I see it, the dealings of 201 a specific travesty and IMO SH are being taken for fools.

But as I say @OB that’s only my opinion, some posters here are fans and I have to accept that. The next few weeks will be telling, I have my view of how events will unfold as you know and I don’t think I will be proved otherwise. Hope that explains but this post will likely be removed before you have chance to see it.

Take care, Pork’s.

Ps. Don’t do yourself down, you are a top guy and i have maximum respect for you as you know. These forums are a mere pantomime half the time.