Member Info for Porky9

Hey, just look at the fundamentals, the SP cant remain this low for much longer. The H1 results will be ahead of expectations and the cash at bank by H1 will be in the region of +£160m
Frustrating Yes, but its about to rally.
Remember why you invested here. Its a solid company, delivering real results, don't lose sight of that.
Take Care now

@crl123
Look most of us share your frustration. SH have had a real bashing and the stock is materially Undervalued against its fundamentals. however, there are a number of trigger points here that could turn sentiment around in a flash. Better to be in here than out. Shortly they will be a MAJOR bull run on this stock. Its going to happen. Seen it all before.

If you have done all your research then use this time to add. If you can't afford to add then hold on it. Seriously, its going to get real exciting here VERY shortly. It will be worth the wait.
Watch this space,

Never felt more confident in Novacyt
Yes, the PR is hopeless BUT the business is delivering, and demand is off the scale.
Highly likely P2 is going to land in some format anytime soon, in which case that alone will reignite Share Holder interest and they will then start piling in but the trigger could come from other directions. A heck of a lot going on here.

Get ahead of the crowd as these prices will not be here much longer. H1 results will also be amazing.
Do not lose sight of the fact that this business is DELIVERING it is the only one shipping goods and making a good margin on them whilst others talk about what might be.
Stock is out of love with SH whilst they chase Rainbows but that is about to change.
Red Hot Buy at 679

Some will not like the following comments, but I do not care, this is our Board, and this is the reality as I see it: -

ODX have an order, one they may make 20% margin on but its worth zero without a product to manufacture and as they do not own any IP, they are reliant on others to provide it for them. Even then they can only work off a manufacturing margin. It will be hard to justify their current market cap and that is if they can get the max order value. Next Feb its lights out. I did consider another “punt” in the hope of a quick SP bounce which could happen, but long term forget it.
Not Buying at 100

AVCT the gift that keeps giving, 9% up today, fantastic Hype, well done if you are in profit, biggest jam tomorrow story on the AIM. 700m Market cap built on fresh air amazing, phase one trials which will likely result in disappointment and an LFT which might not even get validated and even then, it must turn a licencing fee into a profit. That is where the fun starts, one heck of a profit to justify the current ridiculous market cap. Results will be out soon and they will not be pretty. The bubble will burst soon imo.
Not Buying at 274, need proof of delivery to even consider.

You can all quote me on all of the above. I am sure a few will that do not agree with me but each to their own. It will all become clear very soon.

So its Novacyt all the way here, there is no comparison.

Good Luck All

Pork’s

Materially Undervalued - Tick
Stock at Significant Discount to Fundamentals - Tick
Revenues Increasing - Tick
H1 will exceed Forecast - Tick
Still Expanding (30% more staff) - Tick
Major Contracts - Tick
Cash at Bank - est 130m now - Tick
Worldwide Demand Increasing -Tick
Additional Product Lines - Tick
Leading the world in Diagnostics - Tick
Network of Distributors Increasing - Tick
Diversifying into other Diagnostics - Tick
Fallen out of Love in France - Tick
M&A Activity in Sector - Tick
Strength in my convictions - tested but Solid - Tick

Just added and voting for further addition. VERY confident

GLA

Well i had my Zenica Juice on Friday, if i stop posting at least you know its not because i've sold....

I'm Novacyt till i die, I'm Novacyt till i die
I know i am, i'm sure i am, i'm Novacyt till i die....

Take Care all

I pledged to tone down my enthusiasm and not to sound rampy on this board.
It's easy to get dragged into negativity but just hold the faith for now, this is history in the making.
Lots of activity going on. I remain more confident than ever.
There will be a significant sea change in optimism shortly and H1 figures won't disappoint
Two outcomes from here: either the SP starts to reflect the fundaments or AZK make their move and its acquired ether way, i wouldn't want to be short at this level.
Downside minimal, upside significant.
GLA

@ShaunP
Territory Account Manager quoting £ 52m
https://twitter.com/BlackbirdInvest/status/1371009355772989446

Not an exact Science as would imagine London Territory volumes could be significantly larger than some other territories
https://www.england.nhs.uk/about/regional-area-teams/
7 territories at £ 52m = 364m pa from this specific client

Feb Broker estimate was 270m euro for the entire 2021 year
https://novacyt.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/SP-Angel-Update-04.02.2021.pdf

Obviously don't know the exact UK splits non DHSC but as you already identified, high volumes of private sector, airports, will also add so we know it something. Then you have the ROW splits which must be higher in H2 2020 and likely same in H1 2021. It was circa 80/20 in H1 2020. So a very pessimistic 200m ROW puts us north of 600m for 2021 and this is without anything left of field.

Looks to me that based on what we know 2021 year is going to be absolutely substantial.

Finally;
Whilst science data is currently limited its looking like a booster will be required LESS than at the 12 month stage:-
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n664
and https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-astrazeneca-vaccine-lockdown-variant/
So antibody levels MAY drop against the virus over period hence the need for a further booster?
Specific point being that an accurate Antibody test is going to be more useful than we think? You could argue that one shot a year like the flu jab would be enough for most people BUT if the levels are falling during the year for some then a rapid Antibody test could come into its own further adding to revenues.

Interesting Times...

One suggestion on Twitter was that they thought the SP was being being driven down to facilitate a placing at a further discount to enable them to make an acquisition in cash at a higher price than the cash at bank they have available.
I have not fully evaluated this suggestion. It would be more logical to me to either increase debt or pay part cash part shares AND the business would benefit from a higher market cap not a lower one to facilitate that?

Anyone in food manufacturing or a manufacturing field where contamination would just close you down and result in deep cleanse of your plant should go for something like this in their car park. Or even three or four units near each other could co share the costs , no brainier.

More Versa lab the better. Nice find guys...
https://mobile.twitter.com/HarpurUk/status/1370691783219372034

I can be a very passionate Piggy I will have you know :)
LMOL

Only factor worthy of consideration today is the confirmed testing figures out:-
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing

Increasing volumes of PCR testing for validation, variants, now for international travel.

VERY confident that Novacyt 2021 H1 is going to be stronger than 2020 H2. This year they will exceed the current forecasts AND cash at bank will be north of the estimated 278m.

EBITDA for this year will come in North of 173m so anyone who thinks the SP is going to continue to languish at these levels or fall to £ 5, £ 3 , £1 or sweet FA really needs their head looking at. A correction is due make no mistake.

My advise is: NEVER short a stock that's on a PE < X2 the SP direction can turn in an instant.

If your nervous and here for short term and the pressure is too much you should sell and move on. No point in fretting about it.

Alternatively, If you can sit it out or add further at these oversold levels that would be your best policy.

Good luck all for next week, I remain confident.

Pork's

https://twitter.com/OffRecord2020/status/1370407465586720771/photo/1

Kully:-
https://twitter.com/AimTerminator/status/1369943621009559552
Black Rock 5.11% lead
c. 12% in ii hands
70% of Retail trade on Bourse / 30% on UK AIM - Percentages moving slowly towards 50/50

@HarChris
Just shows you what you can get for £6m these days? I am genuinely wondering what ODDO are delivering to the business? What benefit they add? Shorter's are absolutely loving it...
Would Graham have spent this kind of sum three years back?
Await how events unfold here. With a 30% increase in staff they have to be delivering something..... but there is a reason for appointing ODDO

Thanks @gggg21
For sharing the job data Information, keeps it positive....
Take Care

@Kaeren
Yes, there were calls here for GM to go and he is the ONE reason i remain so supportive
However, you do have to question what the hell is going on here...
There are countless things he could do to boost SH confidence but he is not interested???
If they intend to make acquisitions he wants a decent market cap so its in line with peers.
ODDO are paid by £6m the company and acting with them. They know the other two broker notes. There is a reason they agreed to publish this with the business! It was designed to add weight to keeping the SP down and there is a reason for that.?
I appreciate there is a fine line between genius and stupidity and i really don't think he is that much of an blithering idiot to make these constant errors. I really don't. As such i can only believe its totally intentional.

ALSO
See this image today showing increased II positions, including Blackrock at 5.11 %
https://twitter.com/AimTerminator/status/1369943621009559552/photo/1

So why no regulatory note confirming this??? They were previously 3.4% they have a specific duty to declare at EVERY percentage point above 3. They are now at 5.11%

Pure Speculation;

Timing of this and coupled with lack of a) Operational Update b) Lack of any kind of clarity on any orders elsewhere and c) lack of ANYTHING that could positively support the SP, does when coupled with the previous discussion all point to the same outcome that a deal has already been done (off the record)

From my own specific work in M&A there is always a D D period. A deal at VERY best on average takes DD a minimum of 6 months. My gut feeling is that the background work started after the full year results were out. The DD can't be completed until the full accounts for that year are completed. Last year the Final Results were out on 14th May.

IF the deal is with AZK they are already installing staff. By the time of the Final Results are published they will also know the forward trading position which imo will likely be ahead of where we were at H2 - We already know here based on deals we have seen and research into staff appointments that trading is solid - FACT but we might not see the H1 result.

Finally, the fact the forward vision won't be until H2 doesn't add up either, imo its been put back specifically to avoid any chance of positivity and a run on the SP before the deal is announced. Why H2 why not Q2 or at Full Results?

Sadly this all points to a lower ball offer imo. Maybe £ 1bn i.e £ 14 on the argument that its a 45% premium on the managements share options and a significant premium on the SP at X date?

Last thing they want is a run on the SP which would force a higher TO price. Note: What does it matter to GM if the T/O price is £ 4bn or £1bn? If he gets a good earn out deal over the next five years anyway, a massive increase on his £ 4m a year package why would he care?

As at today, if this was not the case there are numerous things he could do to issue positive PR to support the SP but he has chosen not to.

You all know how optimistic i am regarding the future SP, 100% bullish borderline Rampy, so it takes a lot for me to write this but i'm of the opinion we are being played for a reason. Hope i'm wrong and we do see full SP value we deserve but its not looking that way. Nothing is done without a Reason.

GLA

California is one of only five states that do not count rapid tests towards the numbers.
More PCR Testing is required as a result.
https://nbcpalmsprings.com/2021/03/10/more-pcr-covid-testing-needed-to-reopen-businesses-in-riverside-county/
California represents a massive opportunity for #Novacyt

As identified, the decision on the Perkin Elmer $1.7bn California Contract is due next week:

PerkinElmer’s $1.7 billion dollar COVID-testing contract with the California Department of Public Health specifies that the lab must use that test according to the instructions for use outlined in the FDA’s Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). CBS13 has learned the state lab deviated from the FDA authorization, which means the COVID test that is being used in the state’s lab is no longer authorized by the FDA.
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2021/02/19/fda-inconclusive-covid-results-positive/

SACRAMENTO (CBS13) — One day after a CBS13 investigation revealed shocking whistleblower allegations from inside California’s billion-dollar COVID testing lab, state regulators have launched an investigation of their own.
https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2021/02/08/california-covid-lab-whistleblower-allegations/

Originally California State wanted duel tests to protect for the winter flu season, this has Winterplex written all over it, then the lab issues followed.....
"In December, we reported that the COVID PCR tests “are being used incorrectly, resulting in the false appearance of widespread transmission,” according to Dr. Joseph Mercola.
Then, as the Globe reported Feb. 8, 2021, a whistleblower exposed thousands of inconclusive test results coming out of the lab. Now inspectors have found “significant deficiencies” at the coronavirus testing lab, blamed on the rapid ramp-up they required from the lab’s private operator under terms of the contract, KTLA reported Monday.
https://californiaglobe.com/section-2/gov-newsoms-100-million-covid-lab-has-trouble-again-with-significant-deficiencies/

Outline of the heads of Terms Here:-
14mth Contract from August 20 - "state have the ability to terminate the contract with 30-day notice for material breach of contract"
https://dof.ca.gov/budget/COVID-19/COVID-19_Allocations/documents/8-27-2020_COVID-19_Direct_Response_Update-Diagnostic_Testing.pdf

Our Sales Department should be all over this.......