Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
@Pj666
And you believe this to be a realistic possible outcome because….
Now as most here know I’m not afraid to voice my OPINION on this penny share but I’m just not convinced we really have full clarity from the BOD regarding the 201 positions. I’m not suggesting shareholders are being lied to, I’m suggesting that like a lot of AIM companies the BOD are not necessarily volunteering all information so SH can form an accurate view.
Perhaps the resident bulls would like to contra any of these points because I think anyone considering buying this penny share needs to consider them, it could also be a factor why Suzy herself wont make a meaningful investment : -
Regarding the THX and EUDA merger: 1. The due diligence period ended before the end of December. 2. The EUDA update did not mention talks were ongoing. 3. Even if now they merged, they still must go on and raise cash no guarantees 4. The new created legal entity would have the right to re-negotiate terms with VAL further, they would owe it to their new SH to do so. 5. In current market conditions and on the basis that they would need best part of £25m to fund phased trials for 201 the new entity would be within their rights to request success only payments and no upfront cash. The market conditions have changed materially in that period.
Regarding the licensing of 201: 1. The drug will soon be 15 years old and likely now well superseded by other drugs. 2. The IPR rights on 201 according to GS expired and new patents have not been filed. 3. 201 likely needs re-patenting and/or re-formulating now in any event 4. During the last two plus years as far as I know VAL have neglected to do point 3 unless anyone has evidence to the contrary 4. IF VAL left this with THX to do it, where is it registered and who is the registrant? 5. IMO 201 is not in position to be licensed by a new EUDA entity in its current state.
Now obviously you can ignore the above points, its only my OPINION as I say, I could be totally wrong, but I think come the AGM these questions should at least be raised, the BOD should give SH full clarity. IF 201has been left without a patent on it, anyone can copy it IMO rendering it next to worthless and I would want to know exactly what the BOD have been doing with it the last three years. What have they done to protect the IPR and SH interests.
Finally, yes, the statement “Suzy sees no reason why the Euda merger wouldn’t go ahead” is probably factually correct. BUT has the question to EUDA been asked; “are you still in talks with THX to proceed with the merger.” Is 201 still in a position to be licensed now that its previous patents have all expired. The decision made to partner with THX really has proved to be a total shambles IMO and its tragic the BOD are still allowing the situation to continue.
Pork's
This stock is on my watch list but I just can’t quite get to wanting to add it to my portfolio. Happy for the resident bulls here to try and convince me otherwise.
What’s holding me back from buying is my gut feelings on risk/ reward ratio. You see I’m looking at this thinking;
Pros - love the tech, it’s advancing in a very important sector, new versions brilliant, more advanced and better than anything else in market, massive worldwide potential, without doubt will ultimately get brought out, tick tick tick.
Cons - growth rate slower than expected. exiting tech in hospitals does the job albeit not as good as this tech but no rush to spend to update what they have hence why traction slow.
Massively loss making and burning cash at right rate of knots and my gut is telling me they won’t make break even without another raise not with the current traction rate. I cant understand why the cash burn is still this high at this stage? And finally I’m thinking the MCap is £114m no way would someone pay to acquire this at that price with the losses they are making so I’m thinking any upside to the SP is more than already priced in. Possibly I missed the boat at the 20p raise although I can’t help but feel if they do come for more cash I might still get opportunity later in the year back in the 15-20p range anyhow, can you see my problem here?
@HD
You can pray all you like for THX to get funded to complete the 201 deal but it will NEVER happen. 201 is now so outdated that Suzy is effectively trying to sell a perpetual lemon and hanging on to a p@ss poor decision she made to try and "save face". Total farce of a situation and it needed time calling on it two years ago.
I understand she sent a letter recently to Mr Roarke at Fantasy Island and even he had to reply declining it saying it wasn't possible to fulfill a fantasy that big.
@Viera
There is absolutely no correlation between job security and the share price. IF Suzy wanted to raise another £1.4m to top up the old spends, its simples. Push through 70m shares at 2p raising another chuck of cash to see in 2025, Do another consolidation event, say just 10:1 this time and voila we are back to 20m shares in issue at 20p where we started. Where's the problem? who exactly is complaining a few pesky shareholders that don't matter?
If punters are mug enough to keep playing this game and keep averaging down more fool them. You would think the penny would drop by now. DO AS THE DIRECTORS DO. Good grief, Suzy doesn't buy this junk for good reason; she has her family to think of, she has already told you that silly. Further, much better to draw £180k out the business and put some of that into safe investments like her flat lets business than put money into this never to be seen again blackhole, who's the smart one here?
Sorry but until you get BOD changes its simply business as usual. See you at 2p
@PM2022
Look, only on AIM would a business that has delivered zero revenue in 15 years, had 17 capital raises and three 125:1 consolidations, whilst paying its BOD top salaries and package benefits get away with this. ANY company in the private sector would have closed long ago or at the very least got both cash burn under control.
Let me put it another way, today at the current share price 4.4/4.5 the market cap of this business is circa £ 6m - IF you had £6m in your pocket and i said to you, go and buy Valirx, it hasn't delivered any revenue in 15 years, its burning £2.4m a year to keep its Board and Staff in employment, it has one pre clinical asset CLX it got for free from a UNI that it intends to build on over the next two years, it has three other legacy that are now so outdated and no cash expected anytime soon BUT it has a great start up lab that it hopes to get to break even over the next few years but that will need more investment to do so - would you buy it? especially knowing that at £6m you would still need to find another £2.4m to extend the cash runway by another year. You wouldn't touch it would you? and that is precisely why Suzy is not buying shares in this business yet has full control over its direction.
The stock remains totally uninvestable until you get a total BOD replacement and change of direction with cash burn under control.
Stella Directorship finishes on the 15th April I bet she is counting down the days to when she can offload her 333,333 Shares she owns. AGM should be fun end of June.
@Viera, increasing the number of shares in issue is absolutely no problem for the board, it has zero impact on them as they have no skin in the game, all they need to do is another consolidation event, no problem.
17 raises and three 125:1 consolidation events what’s another raise and what’s another consolidation event as long as lifestyles are maintained, that’s the most important thing. SH are being treated with utter contempt IMO
Unfortunately, SH need to go through further pain before it gets better IMO.
Firstly, nothing will happen with THX and 201, Suzy won’t ask the questions to avoid telling the market it’s that simple. What is more likely to occur is EUDA will either be delisted or if pushed will confirm the talks didn’t continue after the Due Diligence evaluation period. By end of March either way you will have the answer confirmed that 201 is a dead duck. The SP will tank to about 1.75 to 2p by my calculation. A Mcap of £2.25m.
Secondly, yes agree with Nick she needs to go but let’s be realistic, would you give up a job in this climate on an £180k package with benefits - be real who would! At end of March on news on 201 being a write off the SH TG group might have a second go at removing her. By the time we get the vote, allow three months redundancy period you are talking end of June anyhow with two to three months cash left.
So in conclusion, the best you can hope for is a discounted raise in a few weeks to back a new BOD which would be possibly worth backing or worst case she digs in, it remains uninvestable business as usual, and she goes for discounted raise to keep the payroll going or even worse takes death spiral finance via a CLN from Sanderson or equivalent.
Sorry I can’t be more positive but I’m being realistic, the sooner the BOD go the better until then it remains a pure traders play and the SP just drifts. There is nothing left here of any value imo apart from CLX which is 18mths to 2 yrs off being positioned.
@Paperprofits
Sorry, i don't remember appointing you as my company accountant, what would you know about my "overall record" you haven't got a bloody clue.
When the BOD get replaced it might be worth considering.
@PJ666
To effectively "Ramp" something there needs to be some substance behind it or at least a good story that "punters" will buy into. As it stands with VAL there is nothing to get excited about.
@PaperProfits
"......no investment or don't plan to invest.." you say, hmmmm
I don't rush into positions, i watch the SP movements over period and how the BOD perform and i invest where i believe I will see a financial return. Its calculated. I don't get it right all the time, just hope to win more than i lose on especially with high risk penny shares like this one.
As at today, i consider this stock to be totally uninvestable, you are right i won't be investing at this point, i consider the way this business is run and the poor decisions made to date not least the shambles concerning the handling of 201 to be nothing short of a utter disgrace. The ONLY thing this BOD is good at IMO is raising ever increasing amounts of cash, paying themselves fat salaries and bonuses and wasting your hard earned cash. I see the SP going to 1.75 to 2p a mcap of £2.25m in relative short time as that's where i value this at this point and i see a further raise based on that valuation later this year in September.
However, should the BOD get replaced and a recovery plan put in place, a direction shift led by people with Business Acumen then my position could well change. I actually consider that will happen here it just needs to run its course. In the meantime i will continue to monitor until that day arrives.
To be crystal clear, until the BOD is replaced i see absolutely zero chance of the Share Price recovering. The time to buy here is during its recovery phase NOT now at this time trying to catch a slow falling knife. Sorry but its how i see it.
@MAJWandCo
Your analysis here has been spot on, got to hand it to you.
The admin expenses on this one are absolutely obscene, I find it totally staggering the number of boards enjoying champagne lifestyles at shareholders expense.
A few here assume they will place at small discount, my view is much darker, the way markets are currently raises just for WC get absolutely hammered if supported at all.This will either go into administration and assets sold off or get lucky with a raise at a discount so high it will practically wipe SH investors out. How much more cash? 35m for just 12 months extended runway to then raise again? Sorry but can’t see it
AGL at the recent pro active pitching event looking for new investor support
The next placing can't be that far off now?
I'm just waiting to see what price this one comes in at or if its worth opening an account with Berenberg to get in on the placing? Berenberg have not been appointed as the sole broker in December just for the fun of it, they will have a job to do IMO they will want fees.
Company state cashflow runway for another 12 mths doesn't mean they won't bolster cash reserves earlier
For now remains on my watch list
@PM2022 (or whatever staff member you are)
You are taking comments of mine from PRE the giving away of our crown jewels, namely our best 201 asset which was our best shot at getting licensed, she gave to a two bit start up. The outlook now has materially changed for the worse and that p poor decision has cost everyone, patients, shareholders, everyone massively.
Back then we thought it would go to AZN or a major with cash, not a bloody potless start up and since then the handling has been nothing short of a shambles. Lost time we cant get back and lost revenue. Boat now sailed IMO.
I hated the decision she made to give 201 to this outfit the day she announced it, i sold 1m shares of my holding that same day as a result. My only regret was not selling my remaining 750k holding that same day. Absolute joke.
So don't quote posts that are now two and half years old because the outlook is nothing like it.
Pork's
Utterly convinced based on your recent posts you do work there - i don't believe ANY shareholder anywhere would remain so pro Suzy and the board with the amount of business blunders being made here. It has to change
@Livinhope
I had thought about that but seriously, the mcap is way way to high at this level. As at today its £ 6.42 million yet the Business is not worth anything remotely close to that. Its a sub £2m value at best. Once the 201 deal falls apart the value will come crashing down just a matter of time. Anyone that still thinks THX will deliver is seriously deluded.
There is actually nothing of value here left now just a cash eating start up lab that will take years to establish and more cash and CLX its only decent remaining asset which needs more work and is at least 18 mths off going anywhere. Plus you have a totally incompetent board draining the cash out the business in the meantime.
I can only assume those mug enough to be buying a few today are trying to support numbers to get the vote numbers up but they will lose money for sure. We now know the resolution had nothing to do with Adam. If Suzy stays you are looking at a further 2p raise later and if she goes you are looking at similar as new team would need to pay off liabilities and need to raise to drive it forward on the right basis.
BUT we must go through that pain barrier and have a new BOD to get the required change for a stronger future. That's how i see it.
FAO Andy
In a funny way this will work to your advantage, IMO the resolution was too early whilst you have idiots like @PM2022 still holding out for her. Push the resolution forward in a few weeks time, first week of March so that the 21 days will result in the EGM meeting end of March.
You can pretty much guarantee that THX will not complete in that time line, even @PM2022 will realise it’s a dead duck and you will have more chance of these floating voters backing change.
Good luck to you. It’s totally the right call.
Ok so the Coup has failed at first attempt on Validity
The requisition notice has to have confirmed shareholders equal or more than 5%. So we now know this was NOT Adam but a separate investor group.
This is tragic on the one hand, the BOD without exception need to be replaced however on the other hand I think the timing was just off. I believe a few more weeks wait would be beneficial on this. THX is dead IMO but it needs closing off and Suzy won’t be in a hurry to do that. So it needs to run its course. In a few weeks time the THX still won’t complete and hopefully the SH action group can get Adam on side and go for it again. It will then secure the backing required IMO.
Good luck guys but you are stuck with her a while longer unfortunately
Look the main event here is what’s in the Resolution and can the SH Coup work or not? It has to happen before this stock has any possible hope of recovery IMO.
I think everyone knows THX are never going to deliver but it’s those on the fence that may vote to give her more time that are the issue here. IF they vote for her to stay I’m not sure how long we have to wait for a second challenge.
Meanwhile the Sanderson TR1 could be votes for her to stay? It’s a private individual buying using a Ltd company shell. Go to companies house and look at the PSC. A number of investors I know have similar set ups. Then again, it might not be anything Sinister could just be a punt from early Jan when they thought THX might merge and get a bounce and now find it’s not happening. I just hope they are not going to be votes to keep her.
Timing of the resolution still remains key, when the vote takes place. I just hope SH do Back it. Doing the same thing here and expecting a different result is plain madness.
Good luck
Ps. I also am starting to question if @PM2022 works at the company. Nobody but nobody can have that much faith that Suzy will still get THX to execute 201 over the line. Come on...
Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/08203248/filing-history