Member Info for pomander

GMCC- you may find this helps explain the situation - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4486734/ In short, IP related to new manufacturing or formulation technology may arise after the commencement of the contract with BARDA, the really important IP is the composition of the active drug substance and that remains with the developer - Summ.

Prof - I did not say that, as there is no doubt that the delays would have cast doubts in some minds that Recordati may walk- indeed Alq claimed just that. I am simply saying that Recordati have remained steadfast throughout in their view that Fortacin represented a serious commercial opportunity for them, if not with all the shenanigans that have gone on and the loss of exclusivity, they probably would have walked. The previous high of circa 70 cents should be very achievable short term when we get the announcements - and then upwards as the global footprint expands and the production issues are now history.

Are you really suggesting that investors with no brains will now invest?

good for you and I hope it delivers more I started buying at sub 5p as it was then - I shall say no more

Bignose- I only have a small residual holding left- I sold out years ago with a handsome profit on this one, still not recovered to those levels. JM is still a shareholders but he also sold into the rise pre the NASDAQ listing. I agree with Alq on the prospects for C-Diff and DMD is a massive challenge to find a cure, but let's hope they do. Pharma is all big numbers, big costs and big delays and often the dreaded complete response letter.- as an investor there is always money to be made on the way but knowing when to exit is the holy grail. I don't think I have ever invested in a pharma company that has not gone up, but I have sold quite a few at a loss. There was a very nice pharma bubble a few years back, but right now its a sector I am no longer investing in.

Prof- Recordati have always remained interested- they don't have the biggest pipeline so any blockbuster that might emerge is worth the wait. The launch has been delayed purely due to the production issues which the last announcement must now have all been resolved. The six dose we will never know what went on and who said what to who. I do find it difficult to believe that JG would have made the original 6 dose trigger announcement without good foundation to so. His mistake was not updating on a timely basis. I agree on the amended terms ( which could actually revert if sales are as originally projected) as pretty immaterial - any well run company will take the opportunity grab a few million back if the opportunity presents.

Yeep- we have suffered enough stings so lets hope there is no sting in the tail. I am pretty confident on the license amendment, I know JG has been premature before but there are o/s readouts awaited so I don't think JG would have made the announcement if he had any concerns. I still eagerly await something wjhch might give a steer on the trading volumes post Nov 2016. As they say, making money is not meant to be easy !

Good sniffing- if you get lucky and hit a home run that's great, although I do give weight to the old adage that it is better to travel than arrive. For me, the attraction of RP as an investment is the current mkt cap (circa €64m) viz-a-viz commercial potential. We don't need to shoot the lights out to achieve a significant and deserved multiple. The headline figure for E5 (which I take with a pinch of salt) is €41m in milestones plus royalties - clearly huge current disconnect with today's share price which must close. Add in US and rest of the world and potential is clear for SP appreciation.

Prof, I think you are a little premature, but if needed I can sort you with a little canister of snake oil which should do the trick! Although I grant you, with EU launches and hopefully others in place in place, the SP should, all other things being equal, run up well ahead of the US launch.

Appleman- I would very surprised if there is any substance behind LeKings claims. AZN sold its antibiotics business some time ago to Pfizer and GSK fairly recently announced it was closing down its antibiotic department. Acquiring a C-Diff drug would not seem to fit their strategic plan and current business model The same would be true for a DMD drug- as drugs fall of the patent cliff, big pharma has moved away from spending billions on R&D preferring instead preferring to acquire another pharma's with drugs at a later stage in the approval process, and at a premium if necessary. There are always exceptions to this but until DMD P2 readouts are available I doubt the risk/rewards are yet to stack up for a bid. My view is that suitor interest may well arrive if P2 readouts are stella they can step into Sarepta's shoes in respect of the in force license and then the horse trading will begin with Summit for the other territories. Access to capital will be key as several thousand million dollars will still be needed to get a DMD drug to market and co-operation of insurers which could also prove a thorny issue. The King choose two very poor pharma's to try and support his t/o speculation, and I note despite several requests that he has also failed to provide any links to substantiate his comments.

yes I do, but quite easy to circumvent the HKEX disclosures rules if a non HK domiciled company. HKEX does not carry force of law 5 years ? my theory began in early 2016, firming post Nov 2016 UK launch on the huge volumes. There is clearly very little liquidity as shown by the sp / volumes ratio over last 3 days 8.5% fall on 23 m shares traded- with 1.7 billion in issue perhaps it is just some day traders after all

you need something for sellers to sell into - whether it be the UK launch/ amended license, but you also need a willing buyer.

Prof - if there is a stake builder they will have to take advantage of any increases in liquidity -

exactly - and importantly it refers to the E5 launch expected in all countries in early 2018 and not just France or Germany with further launches after a year of patient feedback, as has been suggested. All things being equal, it should get back to its former high pretty quickly

news was that agreement had been reached on the amended terms which were set out. Once legal formalities complete ,expected to signed off before end of Sept and the reduced milestone of €4 m paid promptly thereafter.

not sure there is a positive correlation between events at RP and Summ - but you are correct any suitor would simply step into the current agreemenet in replacement of Sarepta. My takeover theory, and note the word theory was predicated upon sound logic and events and was shared by many and I don't seem to recall putting anyone down, but perhaps you are just a very sensitive soul. The takeover theory here is simply based at this point in time on a fictitious rumour disseminated by a self proclaimed AIM investor guru, who given the companies named as potential suitors would seem to know very little about the pharma sector generally- quite different.

It could be far simpler than that- any suitor would make an offer for the entire share capital of Sarepta and in so doing would step into the current collaboration agreement in replacement of Sarepta. This would be good for Summit as Sarepta will find it difficult to raise sufficient funding form its own shareholders, that's why the deal was in my view a cheap hedge for Sarepta.

And no pun intended Prof - I don't believe so but could be wrong - it has already been announced and whilst the legacy Ple shareholders may view management with great suspicion, the circa 90% of HK investors as we are lead to believe now own RP outside of JM are probably far less suspicious and a delayed E5 launch in 2018 is not such a big deal for them. Volumes are decent but I quite like the strength into the close which is a good sign that not just day traders buying.

There is nothing negative about my posts, just realism and my opinion which is allowed in a democracy. Its also kinda rich coming form someone who has posted a completely fictitious rumour about a buyout and posted his prowess on other stocks as some kind of reference to his abilities. Cuts no mustard for me. My view on DMD is not negative and as for C-Diff there are many posters on here that were expecting a deal a long time ago and that has yet to materialise. Perhaps you could explain why ?

As I thought, buyout rumours are just that. I cannot see any buyout ahead of DMD P2 read outs. If they are stella the most likely buyout will in my view will occur via a take out of Sarepta. Deep pockets will be needed to get this to market if P2 is successful and that is a big if, for my money. As for C-Diff, I still see very little appetite from big pharma to get involved - the returns are just not compelling enough for a number of reasons which have already been discussed on here.