The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Marc Cohodes the short seller who helped take down the last 3 regional usa banks is now short the whole sector but concerned the US is planning a ban on short selling. If the latter were to happen the pog would hit the roof. Hedge funds would pile into gold. Definitely feels like the gold bugs are being vindicated and the moral hazard of the bank bailouts is entering end game territory. Crypto will also sell off in such a scenario and the yellow stuff be vindicated.
Good for the condor sale.
Re JM and the 15p warrants as that is what we are talking about here. Context is everything. The warrants were announced when the sp was at historic lows? So why wouldn't you want that esp given the nic sanctions which at the time created huge uncertainty. Also at a time when the pog had corrected the months previously.
I still think the warrants could be exercised (as date is end of this month) we still have a couple of weeks left in May thus there is pressure on getting this done and dusted before the month is out.
Some people have taken the agm change negatively. Has it ever been moved before. No. MC is probably in Nic now and hands will be shook on the deal IMHO.
Big Jim had quite a lot of attention from the guardian paper after brexit so he will be ensuring all is squeaky clean. He is loaded anyhow so missing out a bit on warrants is no big deal.
I think we are close to a sale. I originally thought late May and am sticking to that. I take the charitable interpretation that the agm was changed as MC has to fly out to Nic again and at short notice that suggests a deal is ready to be done.
I hope you get a good sale Connect. And ASAP too.
IMO Condor was always marketed to investors as more of a risk free investment than any junior explorer is. JMs involvement gave it some credibility then MC and his polished public school accent and military background boosted confidence that here was a great opportunity that you could bet the house on.
But if it looks like a gold junior, talks and walks like a gold junior, it is a gold junior and hence a highly speculative investment.
Infact all Mellons stuff is highly speculative so I tend to avoid it all these days. I'd rather put money on a horse. He is a gambler who stacks the odds in his favour.
But his macro commentary is sometimes useful though he ignores his wrong calls (wasnt the euro supposed to have collapsed 6 years ago!,)and over exaggerates his good one's. At the end of the day I wouldn't want to be seen dead hanging around with the likes of Aaron Banks.
Hi JT, I think it is indeed a question of research; and then frankly, luck. In the US, there are some newsletters/subscription services, which do extensive research on Juniors and advice on buy and sell strategies. I haven't found an equivalent service for UK listed miners. John Cornford runs a regularly updated analysis of gold miners on the Master Investor site. There are also events in London where you can meet the people from various juniors although normally they want to meet fund managers rather than retail investors.
Growth can hide a multitude of sins, however, and during the last gold bull market lots of big miners regretted buying some juniors later on as they hadn't done proper due diligence on what they were buying.
The main reason I'm opting for UK listed stocks is I think London shares are generally undervalued, plus I don't want to expose myself to currency risk. Pan Africa, Hummingbird, Shanta are the ones that spring to mind, Hum has been on a tear of late a few people on here own some of it. But I really think it's like betting on horses at the end of the day - you hope you score big on say 1 out of 5 of them to cover losses at the other 4. So definitely "risk bucket" investing!
Good analysis. Yeah i think 65p is top side. Pound territory very unlikely. The ceo of one of the big miners recently said they are not going on a buying spree as they did 15 years ago and they got burned. 55p a realistic price. Stick your condor profit in the bank and invest it in well run juniors then you could be kicking back in Barbados in 5 years time.
MC was also posting a clip front the US version of The Office on twitter so maybe he is just bored or needs something to do during squeaky bum time aka the sale process. Also he obviously wants to try to keep upwards momentum on the share price and no one likes radio silence, well at least he is enhancing his social media skills in the meantime.
I was reading the other forum. There are some conspiracy theories on there eg the assets will be sold for 50m and cash split between management. It seems none of the posters on there can write fully formed sentences, however, so may use that as a guide. My feeling is the truth for this company is in the middle of the derampers there and the rampers here. But I do think the outcome of this sales process could be a good indicator of whether we are at thevstart of a gold bull run for juniors or not.
I had a vivid dream last night that MC announced something but I could not get phone reception thus I can't tell you what he was announcing.
Yes I'd eat my hat if Calibre were not one of the non binding bidders. How on earth would they not want it! I suspect their offer however has been low ball so Condor obvious need to get other bids going but I imagine Condor would favour a sale to Calibre at the right price as the logistics and handover would be simple.
POG rocketing at the right time potentially creating a gearing effect on the bidding.
As predicted the FED indicated this is the last rate hike. Good for gold. US banking issues very good for gold. Now the pog firmly settled above 2k.
Juniors were sold off as the markets waited for confirmation now they will tick up nicely and at a faster rate than the pog.
Can someone ask Elon to shut down the condor twitter account? It's a RNS the markets want and ASAP!
As discussed Hannam and JM are calling the shots on the sale, these tweets are irrelevant. Bring it home big H!
And my opinion is that the FED are now terrified of more banking problems so will indicate this will be the last rate rise. That will be the sign gold miners have been looking for to move up once more whilst the price of gold stabilises long term above 2k.