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Gold is probably due a correction - it was overbought, and articles were appearing in the mainstream press. Plus the 2k price is a major hurdle. But the US banking system remains dodgy so I think gold will continue its upward trend but a 5 percent correction isn't off the cards in the meantime.
That the Newmont deal has gone through is very good news for condor. Could signal the start of more acquisitions in the juniors.
A lot of m and a deals in other sectors have collapsed this week. Sp seems to bounce up around the 30p mark.
It would be nice to have a pre-set timeline, but I imagine the board are happy to ride the increase in the POG in the meantime. A case when a drawn out negotiation is potentially an advantage to the seller, whilst the POG puts a floor under the SP at a time of low volume.
Agree the range is 30p upwards. SP had a good run but that was on the back of the announcements of 4 non-binding offers. It will just hover in the meantime. SPs don't double in price then continue to climb without something to encourage further momentum.
Marc Cohodes the short seller who helped take down the last 3 regional usa banks is now short the whole sector but concerned the US is planning a ban on short selling. If the latter were to happen the pog would hit the roof. Hedge funds would pile into gold. Definitely feels like the gold bugs are being vindicated and the moral hazard of the bank bailouts is entering end game territory. Crypto will also sell off in such a scenario and the yellow stuff be vindicated.
Good for the condor sale.
Re JM and the 15p warrants as that is what we are talking about here. Context is everything. The warrants were announced when the sp was at historic lows? So why wouldn't you want that esp given the nic sanctions which at the time created huge uncertainty. Also at a time when the pog had corrected the months previously.
I still think the warrants could be exercised (as date is end of this month) we still have a couple of weeks left in May thus there is pressure on getting this done and dusted before the month is out.
Some people have taken the agm change negatively. Has it ever been moved before. No. MC is probably in Nic now and hands will be shook on the deal IMHO.
Big Jim had quite a lot of attention from the guardian paper after brexit so he will be ensuring all is squeaky clean. He is loaded anyhow so missing out a bit on warrants is no big deal.
I think we are close to a sale. I originally thought late May and am sticking to that. I take the charitable interpretation that the agm was changed as MC has to fly out to Nic again and at short notice that suggests a deal is ready to be done.
I hope you get a good sale Connect. And ASAP too.
IMO Condor was always marketed to investors as more of a risk free investment than any junior explorer is. JMs involvement gave it some credibility then MC and his polished public school accent and military background boosted confidence that here was a great opportunity that you could bet the house on.
But if it looks like a gold junior, talks and walks like a gold junior, it is a gold junior and hence a highly speculative investment.
Infact all Mellons stuff is highly speculative so I tend to avoid it all these days. I'd rather put money on a horse. He is a gambler who stacks the odds in his favour.
But his macro commentary is sometimes useful though he ignores his wrong calls (wasnt the euro supposed to have collapsed 6 years ago!,)and over exaggerates his good one's. At the end of the day I wouldn't want to be seen dead hanging around with the likes of Aaron Banks.
Hi JT, I think it is indeed a question of research; and then frankly, luck. In the US, there are some newsletters/subscription services, which do extensive research on Juniors and advice on buy and sell strategies. I haven't found an equivalent service for UK listed miners. John Cornford runs a regularly updated analysis of gold miners on the Master Investor site. There are also events in London where you can meet the people from various juniors although normally they want to meet fund managers rather than retail investors.
Growth can hide a multitude of sins, however, and during the last gold bull market lots of big miners regretted buying some juniors later on as they hadn't done proper due diligence on what they were buying.
The main reason I'm opting for UK listed stocks is I think London shares are generally undervalued, plus I don't want to expose myself to currency risk. Pan Africa, Hummingbird, Shanta are the ones that spring to mind, Hum has been on a tear of late a few people on here own some of it. But I really think it's like betting on horses at the end of the day - you hope you score big on say 1 out of 5 of them to cover losses at the other 4. So definitely "risk bucket" investing!
Good analysis. Yeah i think 65p is top side. Pound territory very unlikely. The ceo of one of the big miners recently said they are not going on a buying spree as they did 15 years ago and they got burned. 55p a realistic price. Stick your condor profit in the bank and invest it in well run juniors then you could be kicking back in Barbados in 5 years time.