Member Info for poloshirt

I seem to recall taking a bit of a haircut with FRES a few years back.

Pretty much none of the minors, juniors, mid-tier, or seniors, have performed well in terms of SP over the last few years.

The main reason: they've been in a bear market, despite the POG generally going upwards. This holds for US listed miners as well as UK ones.

Saying that Condor hasn't been perfectly managed but that's the case with most prospective juniors.

Maybe the tide is turning and the long awaited bull market will materialise. If so, the FTSE will start to do well again and all these companies threatening to move to the US like Shell will stay.

Seingred, I certainly hope you are right. Interesting to see stock markets are now getting wobbly given the interest rate cuts may not happen given uncertainty over the oil price.

Gold has held up well so far. I have a lot of my pension in senior gold miners so hoping the price of miners will start to catch up to the POG.

Lots of unhappy Shanta LTHs. They have been shanta'd on.

I'm in two minds about the recent rally in precious metals. Whether it is the start of a long term bull market or a fool's rally orchestrated by hedge funds. Saying that, the miners look undervalued even if the POG receded 10 to 20 percent. The Shanta deal price is very low for LTHs that's for sure.

Difficult to tell with Precious Metals at the moment. I suspect they are overbought, maybe some older investors trying to chase the gains that btc has made. But it's just as possible that gold and silver can collapse as well as btc. Looks overcrowded esp when you see hockey sticks on the charts.

Saying that Fres is relatively low in the grand scheme of things. Probably worth a punt. But as PMs have largely gone up in value over the last 20 years, esp POG, they can seduce investors into thinking they are less volatile than they actually are.

Mellon is a trader/speculator he will be trading until the final bell tolls. Mark on the other hand I expect wants a nice retirement.

Mellon makes the final call. My preference would be cash. Over the last year the Chinese have been heavy buyers of gold, partly because the property bubble there is collapsing plus geopolitics. I like Calibre but would prefer to put the money in more established miners via my pension. But each to their own. GLA. Hopefully some news this month.

Unfortunately there is no meaningful Plan B, i.e. production, so no leverage if there is only one meaningful bid. Hopefully Calibre have raised the 100million to buy Condor; and even better would be if a Chinese company also wants the assets.

I don't know, maybe 60p later this month GLA

It's a case of who blinks first. Mellon may think the bids thus far cheeky, but the bidders know that as time passes, the company's cash reserves start to run out and Mellon may again have to inject more of his own money back into company.

It seems there is little appetite for a bidding war, which is what Jim and Mark were hopeful of.

Gold has done very well but that hasn't fed through into the share values of gold miners especially juniors so there is no uplift from there either.

This is why the inability to actually start mining is a real drag. Looking at this whole sale process, it just seems weird now, it's taken far longer than expected you wonder if anything is actually going on.

I agree, lots of upside. I owned this share a few years back, then sold out barely breaking even, but at this price, it's very tempting. I see Stanley Druckenmiller has moved some assets into precious metals and started selling off some tech stocks.

PM stocks have acted similarly to biotech over past two years, basically been very neglected.

Gold leads the way. Near all time high. Big disconnect with silver price, and gold miners and PM miners in general. Either gold price falls or silver and miners go up. Situation can't stay this way forever.

Any one know what Mellon's long term average is in this share?

Interesting chart in a recent FT article shows gold miners lagging behind the gold price rally - a big disconnect.

Either gold price comes down or miners start heating up.

Maybe Seingred. The two things which have boosted the recent btc rally are ETFs and the halving. Those are baked into the price and the question will be where does it go from here? It's also highly correlated to the nasdeq and that looks toppy to say the least. Who knows, but I'd always prefer gold to such a highly speculative asset (if it deserves such a name) to btc.

Also in regards to the gold price, there is clearly something going on and the bull market seems to be gaining traction.

I think the trade of the year would be to short bitcoin vs gold, as the former has doubled in price in a month, very bubbly.

I admire your optimism! I think if there is a sale, then yes at least double the current SP, maybe treble, a good position for newbies to get involved. Clearly the issue is over the price and hence why this has dragged on longer than expected.

China economy not exactly firing on all cylinders, the days when they would happily throw billions at projects with minimal due diligence are over. Maybe Big Jim needs to realise this. My preference now is they just take the best offer and move on. Also age is not exactly on Jim or Mark's side, no chance of them going back to plan b and producing themselves, as the Chinese know.

Big Jim wants a certain price. The question is will the market give him that price. I've no idea what his overall average is, but it must be fairly low. His projects have always been highly speculative, he is more a gambler than a Warren Buffett type. If time is running out with the Nic Gov then he will have to fold his hand and take whatever is on the table. All the bidders know that time is on their side, there is only so much Mellon is going to put back into the company; it's a waiting game but I still think we are looking at a sale between 60 maybe 100 million. Anything else at this point in the sales process is highly optimistic. Time is Real, and it is against Condor.

Yeah I think this will force Condor's hand in the end. The company will be sold, it's just a question of price, unfortunately the longer it goes on the more likely the price will be lower. Maybe 60million, who knows.

I'm not sure I'd read too much into Condor not exhibiting this year, they don't seem to have many exhibitors compared to previous years in general.

Even a lot of the content on the Master Investor website is nearly a year old.

But who knows, it could be a good sign that a deal is being done.

Depends on one's timeframe but if you bought this share 1 year ago you'd be up around 40% (today that is! Could be back to 0% next week).

Really, how low can this share go for a newbie buyer? No such thing as a dead cert but a good chance of some kind of sale over next few months.

I see Big Jim is still promoting Master Investor, but he's stopped writing his market commentaries. I may go this year just to hear about his latest plant-based AI lithium mining German property startup.

No, nothing pure speculation. We will see but as I say little downside for new buyers.

This is a good share for new buyers. Who knows what will happen but it seems a sale is in the works. There is little downside coming in at this price., if it retraces to 15p then still not much of a loss. For long term holders, it's obviously been a frustrating ride. Calibre surely the main buyer here and the issue is the price.