Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African Resources, on delivering sector-leading returns for shareholders. Watch the video here.
Phwoar - fantastic update. $1.2m debt paid down, increase in debtors, reducing creditors and cash up - all signs of a very healthy underlying economic proposition. Based on the current state of play we're a long way short of the real value in the SP not to mention the future growth expectations.
'Good look' is back! Had a feeling Smalley = Quisad
Honestly dont know the motives but suspect its either someone who has had personal misgivings/bad experience with BMcM in the past or maybe as some suggest paid deramp from competitor - to be going negatively at this company (and any other associated with BMcM) come what may for several years now... there has to be a story. I doubt that will come out here.
For what its worth - I think you have to be tremendously 'motivated' to write all that when the facts are; invoiced sales total of 150kt this year, business generating cash, all major capex on core project complete, debt close to nil, forecast 33% growth next year, other projects in the pipeline with a SP that doesn't reflect any of this. Massive opportunity at these prices... I'm also balancing that against the false dawns and failures of the past - I've been burnt here but hanging on in and trust we will all be rewarded in due course - DYOR and AIMHO.
Cash, sales and prospects all sounding really healthy - bank balance is after paying down $1.3m of debt, strong message / Dividends, share buy back and extra director purchases all in consideration. Brian's presentation and style was really good. I'm saying it again but I think we are really past all the false dawns now... I really cant see why the SP wont soon be double what it is now.
Helpful interview in some ways. Good to hear the admission of historic mistakes. There was a 'investors are too bothered with the detail' message - I'm a pretty philosophical person but I for one, really don't think I am expecting too much and TBH it shows a lack of understanding (/empathy) that the mistakes admitted/alluded to have created a greater interest in the detail. For investors like me, those mistakes have been costly - naturally for those of us who want to see returns and believe in the space and to a degree HMI as a business need assurance the business is doing what it needs to - therefore, more frequent, less ambiguous and more transparent communication. Every time BMcM says that it grates... even though I'm patiently holding and supportive... maybe a lesson for HMI in there.
AHInvestments couldn't agree more. The SP is baffling to me - the accounts will ultimately tell the truth and hopefully there are no surprises there. On a P/E of 10 and a modest profit estimate my numbers are that the market cap should be in the order of 2.5x where we are now. The long wait continues...
So pretty solid - moving to 'delivered and invoiced' as the metric to be measured by is a good move in my opinion, but it does make the figures less exciting at 150kt this year and 200kt this year. The SP should be moving north from here... lets wait and see
My guess is 175kt with most of it booked and paid as revenue with a 250kt forecast for 2023 and I'd be really happy with that.
That should give us more than 7.5p per share... but hey, I've been disappointed here before - I'm really hoping the coming RNS shows we've turned the corner. Simple and tested operation, certified product, profitable product, increasing price, increasing demand.... come on SP!
What are we expecting from the RNS - 150-200kt sold in 2022 and 200-250kt forecast for 2023? What does or should that mean for the SP?
My feeling is there may be additional news & updates on investment / other projects also - its been quiet...
Patiently holding as I have for several years now. I still believe in the fundamentals here but its been a tough and on occasions painful wait.
Smalleyus - BMcM confirmed on the call that all quoted sales orders are 2022 fulfilment. It's just timing. Not least, the covered shed expansion would have had to be paid out of cash in full no doubt, so to increase cash through H1 isn't too shabby.
I've finally got up to date, listened to the investor presentation and read up on the Midas share tips. Sorry - bit late to the party... just got me thinking. Reporting in AUD is potentially a barrier to some investors based in the UK - maybe just making life more complicated. Reporting in AUD, day to day costs/sales in BRL and listed in GBP. Presumably the big gain with the existing structures here is the accrued tax losses and avoiding having to pay corporation tax for a couple of years whilst the profits eat away at the accrued tax losses? After that would there be a case to start trading as a UK-listed company and does it matter? Australian CT is 30% and depending on who the next UK prime minister is, the UK tax rate is likely to be lower... it might be lower tax and more straightforward for investors (once the accrued tax losses are used). Thoughts?
I bought back in today - having sold up a little while back - in at 44p, I don't like the spread much! Cant help but be excited about the potential value in Serabi and hoping it may be better sheltered than many from some rocky times ahead in the global economy. Lets hope for good times ahead :)
Name_Mike, totally agree - It would be great if Harvest could split the sales figures clearly into - 2022 Sold and delivered / 2022 Total Orders Received. Both figures are important and there has been confusion around the use of the numbers. For what its worth I wouldn't be surprised if 'Orders' were getting close to the 150kt given the market conditions - 'Sold and delivered' I wouldn't be surprised if that was half that amount. Given in the past there have been some major 'orders' with excited RNS's that have fallen through, you could forgive investors (Like me!) for feeling a little nervous around the numbers without this clarity.
Interesting take John thanks - it is noteworthy management didn't buy in more lower down. My thinking is that cash was burning away and sales came about 2-3years later than the management team forecast. The disappointment of the large corporate deals failing being probably the main issue - the loss of a 40kt per year contract when other sales hadn't hit anywhere near that was pretty catastrophic. My feeling is that they (and investors) knew that cash was slipping away and without significant sales from other channels HMI were in a lot of trouble... In reality the 'significant' increase in sales has only turned up in the last 6 months rescuing what was beginning to look bleak.
Hi Aberville,
There's no significant long-term financing - there was a placing in 2018 that raised the cash HMI needed to get operations going, get certification for the product, get full mining licences and spend time advertising the product/getting it to market. Another thing to note is that since 2020 HMI installed a solar farm to power the processing plant - looks like a stroke of genius now in terms of timing.
I'm invested here because at the higher end of capacity (licence is for 400kt per year) Harvest is likely to be generating circa £8-10m in free cash each year. The current market cap is around £30m. This is not to mention that Harvest own rights to a significant Potash resource, phosphate resource, limestone etc. and the ambition is to become a major player in Brazilian fertlisers.
Largely from here the KPfertil/Arupua risk is very low - proven product / proven demand / simple process and supply chain - potentially the other more ambitious projects could go wrong but the business will have a consistent source of profit in order to give those projects a real go.
Within the next few years I'd be surprised (and disappointed) if the market cap wasn't over £100m
On the 13th March 2018 there was a investor call with BMcM. He stated on that call that if demand became great enough that HMI "Could put plant at both ends of the site" - this would help ease traffic flow etc. Interesting...