focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Only just listened to the interview, very very good. I agree, it's unsexy, no frills, solid profitability focussed, the kind of stuff which very much appeals to me. It doesn't look like any significant risk is being taken. Sales growing, product prices increasing and operating costs per tonne reducing. Simple product, simple production and growing local market take up. Solid liquidity, cash at hand to at least double through this year. A strong message that there will be no placing. If it is all legit (and I see no reason why its not), sooner or later the numbers will speak for themselves.
T1995 - agree with that sentiment. I've been invested for a similar amount of time. An over-optimistic use of the 350-450kt numbers is a failure... which ultimately did ramp the SP - Investors, I think, became fed up of that over-promise / under-deliver axis on the pace of growing total sales, in reality its taken 4 years to get here rather than the maybe 2 years I feel some of the communications suggested at OR maybe just investors hoped for...
My (probably rose-tinted!) reflections are that the slower growth is more beneficial in the long-term to grow confidence in the the product organically (pun intended). The 150kt forecast for 2022 seems both realistic and encouraging given Harvest delivered the 2021 target - clearly they have a number of 'substantial orders' this year already that gives them the confidence to quote this level. If Harvest meet these targets and deliver some 2021 accounts that don't have ludicrous directors/consultants fees - I'm sure confidence in the management will grow and the SP likewise.
Positive news here, was on board when the price was quite a bit higher and I've hung on in there. Glad to finally see some positive news/ambitions Re: 150kt and see the SP respond. Still have concerns that the overheads, particularly consultant costs seem to absorb most of the oft quoted operating profit, the next financials will be very interesting...
Is circa £14m at these levels...
The results are pretty poor, sales, the geo impairment and 'consulting fees'/expenses deserve some serious scrutiny if anyone is at the event today.
Sales namely the publicly stated 86kt worth of contracts and where they are up to in terms of delivery etc.
With a market cap of £14m, $11m in the bank and a fairly clear sales pipeline/ profitable product, unless HMI seriously mismanage cash and recklessly fritter away on 'consulting fees' on people who notably already hold a sizeable chunk of shares - I cant see how the mkt cap could be much lower.
Sales are on a trajectory, just doubling the interims, the annualised rate of sales is about 34kt and moving upwards - anyone who thought HMI could hit 320ktpa in the first year or two was being unrealistic. 320ktpa is a lot of product - over 5,000 truck loads or around 20 loaded trucks every working day of the year. It is a huge operational undertaking.
Hi D, apologies if my wording was awkward. £10m is just over half what they are stating is their target. In short my sums are;
Product price $60 per tonne
Operating cost $7.50 per tonne
Annual target production 400kt
If they deliver 250ktpa sales and deliver on the price/operating expenses, that's how I work my below figures - I cant help but add a large dose of caution, hence only 250kt and P/E of 10. Some are being far more optimistic and saying $20m profit in cash a year...
Again worth stating that this is one project, on whuch they are currently focussing. Harvest has several other opportunities and potential for future growth. A board with skin in the game and experience in growing a company to $400m mkt cap.
Like I said - personally I am cautiously optimistic and I suspect if promising H1 results are revealed we will see some significant SP action as this could be massively undervalued.
To be fair to BOPD, he always said he was looking for an 'in' - which is strange given the weight of negativity, deramp?
The fundamentals are still very strong, even on a Net profit of £10m per year (slightly more than half current quoted figures) and a modest p/e of 10, based solely on the current active project (I suspect, there may be advance on other projects over the next 2 years). We are looking at a very cautious Market Cap of £100m and thus a near-term SP target of about 50-60p. HMI remains compelling, assuming the market for the product is there...
Patience is the name of the game - H1 figures will be very interesting and I suspect we will have some SP movement prior to and on the release of those figures.
Hi January, it seems to me (see RNSs of 23rd March / 29th March and 13th April) that SRB are saying the big fundraising operation for the expansion is complete. That's not to say a further placing wont come about but certainly as it stands the company is saying that the pathway to 100,000oz production (for the time being) is funded.
The share price is very slow and has drifted consistently for about a year now - so its either due a rerate when significant progress towards 100,000oz is made OR continued decline if there are further delays and disappointing results. The SP reflects a level of caution, present mediocre profit and unexciting quarterly production reports for the last year.
Good news for securing the future of the mine and hopefully increasing the productivity levels.
The SP feels very inactive and slow and lost some ground since consolidation. I'm hopeful that the news flow over the coming months will peak interest.
John4242,
The opportunity is simply put, enormous... the project is almost completely de-risked with significant orders rolling in. The SP is just not reflecting the value. I cant help but think that even interim results may be the trigger for some significant SP movement. Given that the first 6 months of the year have seen approx 100kt sold, the results will be very interesting. Some big capital investment with the plant commissioning but expect a decent set of revenue results.
Goodness knows when the re-rate will happen... but like MAPA... it will happen, its just a case of when. I'm going nowhere - The next 6-12months will be interesting! Just a little more patience required...
Ah Optimistical1.... one of the other accounts.
Absolutely, Aggrecerado are selling the product now... have been for a few months, will be exciting when they come back for more!
The other sales including the 50ktpa order announced most recently is immediate sale as I'm sure you know - for the benefit of those who may need fact NOT just euphemism.
So MAPA is valid for 5 years at which point... it stops and the whole project comes stuttering to a halt?! Of course not! Quisad be realistic here... this is not a 5-year project - its huge, if they can sell, which it looks like they are doing a pretty stunning job of at the moment.
This is not to mention most of the sales to date were without MAPA...
Thanks - will continue to DMOR and recommend other investors do likewise and understand quisad only has one agenda here...
Not even with the most pessimistic spin would the asset only be 5 years... for anyone looking in - check RNSs, interviews and all the comms. The quantity of product will not be a problem in our lifetimes.... besides quisad, I wouldn't have thought you would back HMI to sell 2.25m tonnes of 'dust' (/stone-meal) in the next 5 years?!
Thats an NPV of $100m even at your '5-year' project... quite compelling from the current share price I'm sure you'd agree!