Member Info for Pmoran1969

I hold these in a sipp with ajbell and an isa through Halifax. Took my allocation in each and the ajbell shares appeared in my sipp on 23/12 but still nothing showing as of this morning in my Halifax isa. Not intending to sell so no skin off my nose either way but disappointing that Halifax have not been on the ball.

I don’t know about the rest of you but if you are offered a job somewhere you probably do your best to check the place out. I once did a stint in recruitment for a short time recruiting senior management level and if we had a candidate for a role we would use whatever contacts we had in the industry or at their previous employers to check them out.

Now imagine if you were Andrew Reaney and your old pal John Lyttle rant you up to discuss a role in his company boohoo. How do you think that conversation might go?

John:- Hi Andrew there’s a role over here with your name written all over it, director of responsible sourcing or such like.

Andrew:- feck off John they are all over the press about that Leicester stuff and I’m not really sure I need to be associated with that malarkey.

John:- Andrew that’s why I need you, we are in the process of sorting it out but this lot need a strong board that can move them to where they should be. Seriously old kamani is even thinking of bringing in some retired judge to independently oversee some of the stuff we are doing. He’s got big visions of growing in the us, aus and is even going to have a bash at conquering Dubai! And boy you want to see the bonus that’s up for grabs when we get the share price to 6 quid.

Andrew:- yeah but will they Achieve all that and really £6 they’ve hardly moved the damn share price for the last couple of years and it’s been up and down like a tarts knickers.

John:- I’ll tell you this much Andrew my friend, I wouldn’t be sticking it out for the long haul and I certainly wouldn’t be bringing expensive fellas such as yerself on board If I didn’t think it would get me to my bonus.

Andrew:- ah well now since you put it like that John sure sign me up.

Now I may have taken a bit of poetic license there but I seriously do not think Lyttle or Reaney would be on board if they thought boohoo the business or the share price was going to remain stagnant and whilst I’m not so keen on judges or naive enough to believe their ethics are beyond reproach I also think levenson wouldn’t tie his colours to the mast unless he thought he would be allowed to be truly independent and believed they were going to make a damn good fist of this agenda for change.

So the question is how do we think we performed in sept, Oct, nov? Did we do the same as previous years and continue to track jun and sept with year on year revenue growth of 44/45%? If we did we should expect an update before official Jan update.

We know Black Friday was good but that’s just one day in the quarter. We know November all the high street was shut but Xmas was in doubt so would that affect our sales? But we also know that if you wanted to socialise in sept Oct you were most likely mixing outside so did we sell a lot of jumpers and coats etc?

My money says we did ok and are tracking the +44% revenue growth seen in the jun and sept update. Even allowing for possible house arrest lockdown in jan feb I still reckon full year growth of +40% is likely. Remember we are not just a U.K. company and USA growth and even the novelty aspect of new brand in Middle East will help bolster revenues regardless of lockdown effects.

I think they could get away without an interim guidance update based on all the covid uncertainty but if we do achieve +44% in jan update and anything like +40% for the full year I really don’t think I’ll be rushing to sell the day before results in the hope I can buy in cheaper the day after!

So I had a look at this whole will they or won’t they issue an update in a bit more detail.

Boohoo issues official quarterly trading updates, April (final results), June (q1 update), sept (interim half year results), jan (q3 update). Each trading update provides results and comparison to previous year as well as guidance as to where they expect to be by year end.

We know there have been December updates in the past to say we’ve had a great Black Friday and are on target to meet guidance but these have been by choice. There’s been one guidance note in the past outside the norm in sept 2019 and this appears to be in order to adhere to the aim rule that they must tell the market without delay if they are doing significantly better or worse than guidance previously issued.

Summary of last couple of years updates (all percentages are revenue)

Jan 2018 (no update issued since sept 2017): 100% up yr on yr, guidance stated full year growth expected to be circa 90% up from the previous guidance of 80% (in sept 17 update)
Apr 2018 (no update since jan) revenue up 97% guidance 35-40% growth for year ending feb 2019.
June 2018. Revenue +53%. Guidance 35-40% for the full year.
Sept 2018 Revenue +50%. Guidance 38-43% up from previous of 35-40%.
Dec 18 update to say good Black Friday comfortably in line with expectations.
Jan 2019. Revenue +44%. Guidance 43-48% for full year up from 38-43%
Apr 2019. Finals revenue +48%. Guidance for yr end 2020 revenue up 25-30%
Jun 2019 revenue +39% yr on yr. guidance still on target for 25-30% growth.
5th sept 2019 we are ahead of expectations and now expect full yr growth of 33-38% up from previous guidance of 25-30%
Sept 2019 +43% revenue growth. Guidance fy 33-38%
Dec 2019. Great Black Friday new brand integrated in line with expectations
Jan2020. +44% revenue growth. Guidance 40-42% up from 33-38% previously advised.
Apr2020 +44% revenue growth for the year. No guidance issued due to covid.
Jun2020. +45% growth. Guidance +25% for the year.
Sept 2020 +45% growth. Guidance +28-32% up from 25%

So historically if June and sept revenue growth has remained constant it’s led to updated guidance and been a good indicator as to what the full year growth will be.
Boohoo have beaten the upper end of the target by 5/6% without the need to issue an interim guidance note and only issued one in sept 2019 because they were tracking some 13% above the upper end of previous guidance.

So the question is....

Rag/harchris, I don’t think we ever got to the bottom of what would warrant an rns under the aim rules..

We agreed that previous updates that referred to Black Friday had merely stated hey we’ve had a great Black Friday and are comfortably ON TRACK to meet previously issued guidance.

We agreed that boohoo had issued an trading guidance update prior to their official update in the past to say hey we are doing well and need to let you know that we are TRACKING ABOVE previously issued guidance.

We agreed that the aim rules state that If anything changes in the company that could affect share price (including doing significantly better than previously advised) that under AIM rules boohoo must update the market without delay as soon as they know,

We have seen them not issue an update and be slightly better than the top end guidance previously issued in previous results too.

So it all hinges on what constitutes significant in terms of beating previously issued guidance and also when boohoo could reasonably be expected to know and therefore be under obligation to report.

Once the November month end figures were in and verified boohoo only have dec, jan and feb to go until year end so in theory they could have done so well in November because high street was shut coupled with a fantastic Black Friday that they know they will beat the 28-32% revenue growth forecast by end of feb (year end). However because of covid it might have taken them longer to get all the results in for all countries and brands so they may only just be learning that they are going to be well above. Alternatively they might look like and think they will be well above but have genuine concerns about how trade in dec jan feb might go because of tiers and possible post Christmas lockdowns etc so be able to justify not issuing anything without falling foul of the rules.

My best guess is that if we hear something this side of Christmas it will be a we are On track update. If they are tracking well above I think they will be able to justify waiting until they get decembers results so will issue something early jan to say we are doing better than the 28-32% previously issued (that’s what they did a couple of years ago with the September update, issued a guidance note in early sept to indicate that the official sept update Due a few weeks later was going to be a good one). Also note the 28-32% y/e revenue growth guidance (up from 25%j issued in September was supposedly conservative/cautious due to uncertainty around covid.

So in summary I’ve used a lot of words there to state we just don’t know!! Danl90 over to you matey.

As usual rag trade I often find myself agreeing with your posts. The one thing that I picked up yesterday in terms of the team dynamic was that Andrew Reaney interrupted with his gentle ‘I’ll come in there if I may’ or ‘I would just add to that’ when in reality he was either saving Kamani from himself or effectively shutting down the question and answering the one that should have been asked!

If kamani can stand Reaney and Lyttle running the show so to speak and is capable of just remainIng in the background for the day to day, giving his vision of where he wants the company to be and allowing the team to get them there the right way I think he could stay and enjoy his role as executive chairman.

If kamani can enjoy cutting the ribbon on the new factory, dreaming up the next country to conquer or which brand to add to the stable whilst trusting the team to deliver. If he can do the odd rags to riches I am so proud of the company and the team and I am so proud we have been leading the way in fixing Leicester despite politicians and governments agencies reluctance to do so over the years interview and leave Lyttle and reaney et al to court the city then I see no reason why he won’t be setting another bonus to get the share from £6 to £10 in the not too distant future.

So forget an auditor parting ways with boohoo or an institutional investor deciding they no longer want the shares the red flag for me is whether John Lyttle or Andrew Reaney stay because I get the impression that they will only do so if kamani does exactly that.

Not sure about his mental state but even though he’s been very annoying at the end of the day he’s pretty ‘armless’!

I think the important thing here is the press haven’t gone for blood as would have been their approach in the recent past. However they haven’t yet got to the stage where they are prepared to be properly positive about Boohoo and to be fair that stance may take some time. My view is that it will come and we will ultimately see reports that refer to ‘boohoo having turned the corner‘ or ‘cleaned things up’ etc and we might even get to the ‘boohoo leads the way’ type article from the likes of the trade press or the times. The daily hate will flip flop and pick the most sensationalist approach as always and I fear the guardian will only ever do a positive piece on boohoo if kamani moves back to the flat above the shop that his parents ran, let’s asylum seekers live in his other properties and buys Philip greens yacht off him for the sole use of bringing illegals across the English Channel!

The times piece attracted 3 comments so far.
Don't Call Me Al
3 HOURS AGO
A lot not said here. If Boohoo's audit procedures revealed 64 suppliers who were non compliant, how many were, what percentage of his suppliers had fallen by the wayside. In their reviews how many had been breaking the law, what had Boohoo done in reporting their findings where necessary to the authorities, what confidence has Boohoo that their supply chains at least through Leicester operate in a socially responsible way, what changes in governance have been made to prevent reoccurrence

Alfred H
5 HOURS AGO
Can’t fix their own problems in their supply chain as they have 8k employees and need collaboration with ‘authorities’ as they don’t know what goes on. No red flags there then.
AnotherDevilsAdvocate
6 HOURS AGO
Edited
Owner should be in prison, not in front of a Commons committee meeting.

Copy of times piece

Boohoo cuts 64 suppliers over workplace conditions scandal
Mahmud Kamani said Boohoo’s rapid growth had meant its audit processes of suppliers hadn’t kept up
Mahmud Kamani said Boohoo’s rapid growth had meant its audit processes of suppliers hadn’t kept up
JERRITT CLARK/GETTY IMAGES
Ashley Armstrong, Retail Editor
Thursday December 17 2020, 12.01am, The Times
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The founder of Boohoo has told a Commons committee that the online fashion retailer has walked away from 64 suppliers in Leicester since the controversy over the mistreatment of factory workers and unsafe conditions.

Mahmud Kamani, 56, executive chairman, told MPs during an environmental audit committee hearing into the fashion industry that he was as “concerned as everyone else, we need to make it good”.

An investigation revealed that workers in Boohoo’s supply chain were paid below the minimum wage while their health was put at risk in the pandemic. This prompted a review, conducted by Alison Levitt, QC, which found in September that the allegations were “substantially true” and that Boohoo had inadequate monitoring in place.

Mr Kamani insisted that Boohoo did not own any factories and said that its rapid growth had meant that its audit processes of suppliers hadn’t kept up. “What we are guilty of is we didn’t put processes in fast enough,” Mr Kamani said. “Some of them don’t play with a straight bat,” he added of rogue sub-contractors.

Andrew Reaney, Boohoo’s sourcing and product operations director, said that the 64 factories had violated Boohoo’s code of conduct with serious breaches.

Philip Dunne, chairman of the committee, questioned how if Mr Kamani had worked with Leicester suppliers for the past 25 years he could still have been “shocked and appalled” by treatment of workers, particularly as there had been numerous previous exposés.

Mr Kamani said that as Boohoo had grown to 8,000 employees he could not “possibly know everything in this business”. He said Boohoo “can’t fix all these problems on our own” and he needed collaboration from the authorities.

The online retailer uses UK factories for fast turnarounds so that it can respond to trends quicker than its rivals.

Ben rum - I don’t understand your point, care to explain?

Sure enough MK comes across as a market trader made good but at the end of the day that’s exactly what he is.

But you have to love his response to Caroline about meeting with the union - I don’t want to join the union so I’m not meeting them!!

Andrew reaney could easily have done the whole meeting on his own but in a way I think it was good that he had kamani there because it really did fit the message that we have an agenda for change and look at how good the new fella is.

On the whole I am ,eft with the impression that the EAC would have liked to skewer boohoo but didn’t quite manage it. But if Kamani went there on his own they would have.

I think you might be right webba. We might look like we are miles apart but one thing our politicians and those in europe do have in common is that the lazy bar stewards will mot want to be recalled during the christmas break just to ratify a deal that could and should have been boxed off by the end of last month,!!

Kallumama do you even own ABf shares?

I do so am familiar with their business and the fact that they have been challenged by share holders in the past as to why they do mot offer primark goods for sale online.

They are not anti online and in fact did list products online with ASOS a few years ago. However the margins were too small to make it worth their while doing it en masse.

Their only problem with doing primark online is the additional costs associsted with it. They recognise that to do fashion online you need a slick delivery and returns process that can get returned goods quickly examined and prepared and back into stock. Given returns can be as high as 30% for online fashion sales you either have to be selling at a higher price point than primark (eg next) or be a pure online business without the high cost of. Highstreet presence (eg. Asos or boohoo).

If abf could buy a ready made sucessful online fulfilment and returns set up at the right price that would enable them to service their customers and not take a hit on margin they would go for it.

They have always said online doesnt work for them at their price point and stated thats why they dont do it. They have never said they wouldnt do it under any circumstances. Abf are a well run operation that is effectively still a family owned business and if they do go omline at any point you can bet it will be because they ha e found a way to make it work for them alongside the bricks and mortar operation. If that ever happens it will be a time to buy more abf not sell it!

It has nothing to do with Leicester. It’s about Boo planes for protecting the environment

Definitely going to see some bad press next week if our presentation consists of protecting the environment with planes!! Lol sorry slipperz couldn’t resist it.

Anyway give it five minutes and beam me up Scott will be posting that he bought a plane last Christmas with his boohoo profits so he truly does have a boo plane!

Hopefully he will also tell us what colour it is.... not the plane or the Audi, the moon on his planet!!

K- John Lewis do free returns and so do next and also Lakeland, i know because my wife uses them. I can’t tell you the name of the danish company that my son ordered trainers from (online) recently but their returns were free also. And I can assure you the last return I sent to amazon was also free of charge.

Stop spouting pseudo “facts” that you’ve simply made up Because they suit your argument you are just making yourself look silly.

K thanks for doing the research on returns for me but the link you pasted refers to items purchased in store.

Onli e purchases can be returned for a full refu d, just one of the many advsntages of onli e shoppi g i guess.

As you clearly cant research properly yourself ill do it for you extact of sports direct t&c as follows

'Once a refund has been issued you will receive a confirmation email detailing the amount which has been refunded and the item(s) Sports Direct has received back. If a refund or reimbursement is payable to you, SportsDirect.com Retail Ltd. will transfer the money using the same method originally used by you to pay for your purchase. SportsDirect.com Retail Ltd. cannot refund via the original payment then a cheque will be raised to the address on the order (except in the case of a full or part purchase of items using a Gift Card, as detailed below).If any product purchased with a Gift Card is subsequently exchanged for a product of a lower price, any money owing will only be issued as a Gift Card. If your purchase was partially paid for on Gift Card and a refund is payable to you, your Gift Card will be refunded up to the card's original value, and any outstanding balance owed after this will be refunded via the other payment method originally used for your purchase. If you no longer have the Gift Card used to purchase the returned item(s), Sports Direct will issue you with a new Gift Card to the value payable to you up to the amount of the card's original value.Sports Direct aims to process all returns as quickly as possible and you should receive confirmation of this within a week of having returned the item. Please note that if you have been provided with Sports Direct's freepost address then due to the extra time it takes for freepost items to be delivered it may take up to 14 days to receive confirmation of your refund. Please note that at busy times of the year such as public holidays, these times may increase.'

Like i said i admire your tenacity but your arguments are flawed!

K, Shopping centres did not just magically appear overnight having been built by the shopping centre faries. They were built using finance that needs to be serviced. The business model for a shopping centre is based on having a certain amount of occupancy paying a certain amount of rent.

Flagship stores are often granted prime locations within shopping centres and are often able to negotiate rental terms that are better (relatively speaking) than other retailers simply because they can attract a certain footfall and other retailers and that benefits the shopping centre. They usually have to take a minimum square footage for a minimum lease term to get the deals though.

Once upon a time If you could bag a Debenhams or a Marks and Spencer’s or a John Lewis as a shopping centre operator the remaining retail space would be easy to fill. In recent years the Debenhams and marks and Spencer’s of this world haven’t been getting the footfall and in many locations the presence of a sports direct or a Primark or a jd sports or a next is more likely to attract customers to the shopping centre.

Mike Ashley is without doubt a master deal maker but to suggest that a shopping centre will give him indefinite free rent is just ludicrous (about as ludicrous as suggesting sports direct don’t allow returns!). How would the company who owns the shopping centre make money if it gave free rent to retailers? How will the retailer continue to trade in their rent free location when the shopping centre owner cannot service their financial obligations and the shopping centre itself goes into administration?

We are in strange times and it’s possible that shopping centres will do creative things like agree a rent package based on turnover just to keep the retailers and the shopping centres trading but if they did and you are right (which I seriously doubt) about the massive shift to shopping in bricks and mortar instead of on line then the turnover will go up and with it the rent and therefore the retailers costs.

I admire your tenacity but the simple fact is your argument is at best flawed and smacks of straw clutching!

I would have thought if we were getting anything by way of a trading update it would have been issued prior to market open or after it closes. There’s still time for Morgan Stanley to tell us they have increased their holding by 0.01% though!

Oracle you make a fair point. I got in here after the supplier issues reported in July because I thought the drop too severe and I was after £4.00 to sell out most of my shares and just let the initial stake ride on.

Although we did hit £4.00 very briefly (which I missed) the momentum prior to the September results was soon lost and pwc announcement pushed the sp back down. I’m still comfortably in profit with an avg share price of £2.57 but the recent non exec appointments and my expectations for the full year are what keeps me here for now.

I’m pretty ambivalent about what we may or may not go for/get from the Arcadia collapse but I am keen to see how we are performing in the USA and wether we will be opening a distribution hub there (especially Interested given the two us institutions that have taken a position).

In addition to boo I had thrown some money into ezj, barc,mks,cna, bwng, nex this year as my recovery plays so I’m fortunate to have seen some nice growth among these and the recent vaccine news has actually played out well for some of my other existing holdings too.

i usually do a quarterly review of my shares and make decisions as to wether I want to keep add or reduce but this year (it being a strange one) I’ve been doing a monthly review. Whilst I understand your frustration each time I look at boo I find more reasons to stay than go so I’m still holding.

Never mind the grinch what we need is an angel called Clarence to show us what the board would be like if they had never existed in the first place!