medium term oil is going up128 May 2018 08:46
Found this on advn from Mount Teide:
�Biggest Ever Change�� In Oil Markets Could Send Prices Higher - OilPrice.com today
hTTps://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Biggest-Ever-Change-In-Oil-Markets-Could-Send-Prices-Higher.html
'An upcoming regulation that analysts have called �the biggest change in oil market history� and the �the most disruptive change in the refining industry� is lurking just around the corner, and experts say that it will drive oil prices higher as it will fundamentally shift the demand pattern for fuels.
�This is going to be the most disruptive change to hit the refining industry in its history,� Chris Midgley, global head of Platts Analytics, said. �Unlike other specification changes seen by the industry, this isn�t a little bit of tweaking.�
The regulation will send demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil soaring, and refiners will have to shift some of the products they will be processing from crude oil, analysts concur.
The stricter regulation on the fuels used by the shipping industry will result in booming demand for middle distillates that would boost crude oil demand by additional 1.5 million bpd, potentially sending oil prices to as high as $90 a barrel in 2020, Morgan Stanley said last week.
In fuel oil prices, the forward curve has not yet fully priced in the new regulation, according to research from S&P Global Platts Analytics last month.........
According to Rick Joswick, managing director for downstream oil analytics at Platts, the forward curve for middle distillates currently shows little change between 2019 and 2020�underestimating the impact of the new rules. �The market has not appreciated yet the degree and scope of these changes,� Joswick said.
�While there has been breathless attention paid to prompt Brent prices climbing to $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014, what has received less attention is that the entire Brent forward curve is now trading above $60, including contracts for delivery as far out as December 2024. This development is an important psychological milestone for the oil market. The market is, in effect, saying that �lower for longer� is dead,� Sen and Elguindi wrote.
Looming shortages of supply and strong demand will combine with the marine fuel regulation in 2020 to put additional pressure on the physical oil market. Demand for diesel and ultra-low sulfur fuel is expected to jump by 2 million bpd-3 million bpd, Energy Aspects analysts noted.
�Nothing ever moves in a straight line, but the broader oil market is perhaps not prepared for what will happen to oil prices over the next couple of years,� they concluded.'