Member Info for PL75

Who imagined Avacta would be on ladbible?

https://www.ladbible.com/news/news-boohoo-founder-teams-up-with-avacta-to-create-home-coronavirus-test-20200523

Agreed, thanks again CO, for your efforts and for getting everyone thinking. Mainly because it’s a long weekend and I needed some numbers to look at in the absence of the share price fluctuations. Roll on Tues and hopefully the next piece of the puzzle!

RK, agree with this ‘This is for as long as the virus is active and needs people to self isolate’. I think there’ll be an initial clamour for mass screening, but once the r0 is low, the usage will drop to test coughs and control outbreaks. The ongoing exception would be air travel to reopen borders.

The other exception will be Al when he goes to see the queen to become Sir Al

Not so sure, the UK govt chucked 3.5m dodgy tests in the bin pretty quick. They want the best, fastest antigen test they can get.

Wow RK has gone for 1.4Bn per month! And I said I was bullish on the size of the market.

With a profit of £4 a test, we’ll soon have monthly profit of 5.6Bn, 67Bn pa. On a PE ratio of 10 we’ll be worth 670Bn and will be in the top ten most valuable companies on the planet.

I mean, I’ve read some ramps in my time...

Appreciate your work CO, thanks

Pleased to see the % chance of success has been dropped. :-) I’d add market share % which would temper down the number, but on the flip side I’d be bullish on the size of the global market. As Sir Al said, we’ll need additional manufacturers and demand will exceed supply. Currently we don’t know the capacity constraint though. Lots to ponder until all is revealed...

To be honest lucky I didn’t understand a word of your post, but it sounds like you need to do a bit of research. RichKen has just posted some good summaries / links. Have a read and if you’ve still got questions, we’ll be happy to jump down your throat as that’s what BBs are all about ;-)

That was me, can’t believe you forgot the name... some of my finest work:

Have I got flus for you

Ha! I’m not so sure the efficient markets hypothesis always holds.

As I said your post wasn’t that far from the broker notes, they pretty much modelled the current share price to be fair market value (no, really?) and wouldn’t put any value to the Covid stuff - they either have us on 0% chance of success or they don’t want to risk their reputation saying we should be worth billions. I’m sure it’s the latter.

Interesting RD, have you got a reference? The recent broker notes pretty much just said they wouldn’t dare put a value to it.

Quidel you say? +$6Bn Quidel? :o)

80% is a good starting reference point and given Sir Al’s confidence and the wonder of very small affimers, I’m very hopeful we’ll smash it

Hi Chengdo, I think we’ve had this discussion :-) I should probably check, but I think I went for 80% sensitivity being a useful indicator - but the lower % would have us struggling despite the convenience (Abbott territory), 90% being a game changer (in line with the ‘100%’ Roche test) and 95%+, well, I’d be taking a test to go and kiss Sir Al.

Yup, absence rates have been very high due to the advice to isolate with symptoms. This advice will change to isolate if you test positive with Ava-Gotit

Hopefully that reads ‘2.9m in the UK only’, as in, then think globally. Not ‘it’s only 2.9m’. It’s the largest private employment sector.

Agreed Abraham, I tried psssing on this bonfire, but it’s smouldering too strongly.

The numbers are absolutely silly when you start thinking of potential, but it’s just that, potential. Yesterday we discussed airlines.

Let’s have a gander at retail.. Ocado ordered 100,000 tests and bear in mind it’s an online operation so less risky than others. They have about 15,000 employees. The retail industry in the uk only employs 2.9m. At the same ratio that’s 20m tests as an initial order for one industry. It’s mind boggling.

The other thing that’s missing from the below is the competition, they’ll turn up at some point. That’ll put pressure on margins, so I think the average selling price will fall fairly rapidly. The suggested RRP of £25 will also fall with multipacks, more than halve to companies and reduce further to govts. We might be left with a quid a test revenue. Still a huge amount.

After that mixed bag of waffle I’m not sure what my conclusion is other than margins will be squeezed, we’ll only have a proportion of the market but that the market will be so huge we’ll still earn silly amounts.

The important bit - If, and only if, the test works

I’m pretty sure you’ll be comfortable at £10 :o)

Sir Al hasn’t released any commercial details so who knows. He’s very tight lipped, he must be negotiating some other deals...

Holy crap D9Ber1.... ‘Just for my understanding, does AVACTA's treatment work by telling you if you currently have covid-19 or had it in the past?’

https://avacta.com/investors/documents-presentations/
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5e985bc231da814c9fc6a477

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink

Be aware. The world needs more wares.

Although Boris said stay alert, so maybe we need more lerts.

I just read the same article. Roche claimed 100%, I’ve said it before that an antigen test below 100% still adds value in reducing the r value but here’s hoping we’re as close as possible.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-phe-laboratory-evaluations-of-roche-and-abbott-antibody-tests/

PS, I’d imagine Cytiva are going to be pretty upset if they’re not getting anything.