Member Info for PL75

Maybe he's enjoying the sunshine? Who cares.

Interesting find, slide 9 is a cracker

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Avacta’s test used by the govt army of track and tracers, they can quickly get them out to people and use them to firm up the current protocols. They are only testing those that have had contact with someone with Covid if they show symptoms. Everyone should isolate and I completely agree with you, but you can imagine the scene... ‘but I feel fine....’

Oops, RD described. Apologies RD, credit where credit is due.

Yes, and there’s always that option to have additional PCR testing as RK described. As Avacta’s test is suitable for mass screening, it would make sense to have some follow up testing. Avacta would discover the asymptomatic who would be less likely to take a positive Covid result at face value.

Hopefully we’ll find out Avacta’s %s soon and we can consider how it might match up in the real world against the competition, balancing the potentially lower sensitivity against the improved sampling of drooling rather than swabbing.

Not a statistical biologist.

Thanks for explaining

If anyone is looking for a bit of ISA advice, you should ask Umar Kamani.

As well as the LSE Awacta board and GSK (why?), he also had a tab on ISAs open :-)

Evening David, just to provide the full illustration of why our test has been condemned as apparently useless. You can then make your own mind up. Using the exact example given.

If there was a population of 100,000 then 270 would have Covid = the prevalence of 0.27%. Of these, all 270 would be found as positive as it is 100% sensitive. That leaves 99,730. Of these, we would get 200 false positives using a specificity of 99.8%. This equates to the positive predictive value of 57% as stated = 270/(270+200).

My view. The suggestion that isolating an additional 200 people out of 100,000 would render a test useless, whilst capturing every true positive, is complete and utter nonsense.

CONWERTED

The might as well have just screamed ‘do you know who I am?’ and flounced out there and then.

I asked why false positives are an issue. Simple as that and next thing up popped an episode of This Is Your Life. RK provided a smashing example of why it’s irrelevant and I’m more inclined to believe Sir Al than some lowly statistical biologist.

ST, I must correct you. He didn’t pull rank, he tried to. My stats knowledge is perfectly fine, I’ve got qualifications and everything. I chose to ignore his profession d*-k swinging.

Incidentally, if the affimers are as highly specific as Sir Al has said they are (100%?) then the entire argument of false positives disappears as there are none.

Enteleon, my opinion fwiw is that immunity passports are the stupidest idea possible if the govt wants to protect the NHS. Putting aside the debate about how long immunity, if any, lasts - the instant anyone with antibodies gets any kind of preferential treatment, you’ll find Covid parties everywhere and the r value will surge a lot higher than 3.

Certainly a strong finish. Said the nurse to the bishop

Don’t forget that we were informed, as an absolute matter of fact, by an anonymous poster over the weekend that there will definitely be news on Tuesday

I’ll keep trying... quercusrober, where did the Zurich Ticket post come from?

I don’t think Statto can help. I think you’ve answered your own question. The more of the virus the easier to detect in an antigen test, likewise the more antibodies the easier to detect in an antibody test. What’s stats got to do, got to do with it?

Not Tina Turner.

Lunch tonight? Doesn’t make any sense

And a house builder.

Wouldn’t mind some income shares too. Then if Avacta has got high enough to find them I can retire... nice to dream, we’re not all mole catchers.

Quite like the risky ones... Carnival raised a bunch of cash so should be solid and have a huge way to go to get back to their previous levels. I’m pretty sure testing on cruises will be a key market for Avacta :-)

Also thinking about hospitality, maybe IHG. Hollywood Bowl for entertainment perhaps. Dart group for travel. Plenty out there. Likewise, no recommendations here, just ideas for now.

This is turning in to a cracking thread.

Agree Hants, that’s my plan, once Avacta have put Operation Sir Al Saves The World wheels in to motion I’ll consider looking for places to put in money that will hopefully recover well. Anything that’s suffered most but isn’t riddled with debt would be my starting point.

Chengdo, love it and fully agree.

Chuck it all in Avacta. I think the current main market rally will be short lived as the true economic fall out hasn’t hit home, the measures have just delayed it. Never mind the threat of an incoming second wave - which will be fully averted thanks to Sir Al, saviour of the universe