Member Info for PL75

Wow, you managed one whole positive sentence. Congrats, every journey starts with a single step.

Ncyt doesn’t concern me in the slightest, PCR is a separate much smaller market. The board are very aware of putting their eggs in one govt basket, I’m sure that’s why we’re waiting for an independent CV and CE marking. The global demand is effectively unlimited.

I discussed fair value earlier today, it’s probably about £1.50 and rising each day as AVA6k nears. The share price will fall if the test is rubbish, I’m aware of the risks and can afford to lose the money I have invested.

As you’ve focussed on the negative (what a surprise) ... let’s talk about the potential.

How much do you think the price will rise if the CV matches the evaluation? How large do you think the market is? What price to you think we’ll get to with the govt contracts?

Have you got anything positive to say about the company you’ve made money from? What do you think the potential is?

Yawn, the same old whingebags bleating on about the same old stuff. Leave them to it. It’ll turn up whenever and if the numbers are good all will be forgiven as they add to the profits they’ve already made from the company they enjoy moaning about. Utterly pointless discussion from start to finish.

We didn’t get a test out by the end of summer, well, blow me down with a feather! We haven’t had any contracts yet, no way! It turns out that investing in a small aim biotech is risky, well I never ever did! Thanks for the multiple daily reminders. Yet zero conversation about the potential and the reward side of the equation. The main benefit of the test coming out isn’t the share price rise, it’s that they’ll finally stfu. Anyway, I’m off to dress up as a Jehovah’s Witness and have some more interesting arguments

MrA, we wouldn’t have got a cut of that contract if we’d CE marked on 56 samples. It wouldn’t be equivalent to PD. So they’d have wasted time, money and effort and then gone back to doing what they’re doing now

Templar, the house jibes are more embarrassing than ever. He could have had a bigger house as the share price has risen by about 50% since then. It’s been made clear all along that they weren’t going for a quick win. Time has been taken to ensure that the test is as robust as possible and risk has been removed as much as possible. If they’d pushed to launch months ago we might have not been at the standard of Innova. We’d have shot our load and there’d be no chance of displacing Innova. In your scenario, we might have got a proportion of the £4bn. The chances are that it would have been short lived. By taking their time, they’re now trying to get all of the £8bn. I know which one I’d prefer.

Great post I&B. My only ‘concern’ was the use of the vague term ‘summer’. I’m still waiting for find out when that is. I agree that the value that the share price is underpinned has risen due to all the various deals. Sequoia Flooring invested at £1.20 and a lot has happened since then. Premier Miton had suggested £1.20 was fair at the time, since then... expanded partnerships with Daewoong, LG Chem, deals with Astrea, Point, Abcam and affyXcell funding. With that list £1.50 seems conservative.

Good of them to remove them in a chunk rather than backdate it properly. Idiotic decision for data integrity. Anyway, yes, our exquisite specificity should have an impact here. In fact, it could prove the case that confirmatory PCR testing is a waste of time with the real game changer.

It still wasn’t procured through the DPS, so there is still £8bn

It wasn’t procured through the DPS, so there is still £8bn

a) about £2.65 per share
b) £200 per share

Less and more.

No.

Do I win a prize?

Spain was about 18000, fell to about 6,000 and currently about 9,000. About 800 hospitals so about 11 cases per day. So at the start we were looking at potentially 28 a day (22 Spain, 6 U.K.) for both countries using broad averages. If we were after 1,200 samples that’s 42 days, so just over 6 weeks. All lines up with the suggestion of around the end of Q1. Now we’re at a run rate of 13 a day, which is 90 days. Assuming a linear decline and taking the average, about 65 days, just over 2 months from mid Feb.

Oh, ok, 17th April after all :-D

Bottom line, it shouldn’t be too far away so why worry about precise timing. Just add on the dips (if the brokers let you)

Listen to him today when he said be patient, it’ll turn up whenever. There’s no deadline, it depends on access to samples. In the time since the full clinical validation the number of cases nationally has fallen from about 12,000 to 3,000 per day - so 1-2 cases per hospital on average. Then you consider how many will have the required viral load and if permission is needed and it’s not a stretch to understand why validation can grind to a halt if the prevalence falls. Patience needed, not fake deadlines

Toaster has the accurate link for his exact comments, but PresAl pretty much said they were having to tweak things to fit with the ways of working during the trial. The condor work by Paul Weller looked a right faff so whilst it’s probably an excellent assay, it’s likely best suited to research than genuine high throughput. Given it’s been repeatedly ignored by the share price, my thoughts pretty much amount to...meh. If we flog it, marvellous, if we don’t, whatever. Alongside the Elisa test, it’s useful for showcasing affimers if nothing else

There’s something to be said for an independent CV and thorough basis for CE marking. It gives govts and private firms the world over the confidence in the product. I’m sure that the ambitions are greater than just supplying the U.K. and I’m sure that they’re extremely aware of the risks of having a single route to market - mainly because David ‘it works’ Wilson said exactly that. We’re in safe hands

Nailed on with Velcro, just in case it needs nailing on again the week after? I agree with the sentiment of not being out, but there’s nothing nailed anywhere.

Best go again then... You missed a bit on that plate and don’t forget the mugs in the bedrooms.

You did well if you got that through ig, I had the same experience as invest121

Dip over, normal service resumed, well done if you got more

Just got blocked by him for some reason zoom, he beat me to it. I’ve seen him littering all the usual hashtags with his nonsense so I was always going to get rid. Enjoyed it while it lasted

Blimey! I eventually paid £2.65, but wanted £2.55

It was a brutal update, small Q1 revenues from the product the govt don’t want anymore and a dispute over Q4. Normally I wouldn’t care and I might even muster some sympathy but there’s so many folk that love to try and sick the knife in that it’s just impossible to resist schadenfreude