Good stuff TL. Just managed to find this... Prototype within weeks and for sale in September, so similar timeframes.
OraSure’s test will utilize a long swabbing device that resembles a miniature canoe paddle. A porous pad at its tip will be swiped between the cheek and gum, then placed in a tube with a preset amount of developing solution.
‘ Demmer acknowledges it might be a pipe dream, but his vision is to have these sorts of rapid tests at every hospital and health clinic and even at the door to every business for employees and customers alike’. ‘ Even if rapid tests meet all of these criteria, they are likely still many months away. Of the antigen tests, for example, David Walt, a professor of pathology at Brigham and Women’s Hospital, told CNBC that he expects it would probably be four to six months before they would be given FDA authorization.’ Written a month ago. Many months? If only they knew...
MrSpeculator’s moan inspired me to do some further research, so credit to him for saying we’re at risk of losing early mover advantage and we need to get a move on or we’ll be overtaken etc etc, grumble, whinge.
Scroll down and you’ll see a graphic containing logos of the other companies that have developed or are developing a rapid test. Google them. Please. Just in case I’ve made an error.
I can’t see any other company on the planet that have developed or are anywhere near developing a pregnancy style saliva test. There is simply no competition and zero risk of falling behind. All the tests listed need swabs or bits of kit.
Awacta are the only company developing a test capable of mass screening. Let that sink in.
Awacta have also tweeted that a test that meets the guidelines of 80% if deployed frequently enough would beat PCR testing for effectiveness, especially considering the issues with swab samples. Now imagine a 90% LFD. Or even a high performing 95% test. Then consider if it’s worth being patient.
I’ve always felt that we wouldn’t get a huge proportion of the LFD market, that competition would emerge. That list suggests otherwise, we’re currently at no risk at all of missing out or of not becoming the dominant player. The scale of the opportunity shouldn’t be underestimated.
It’s great research, it shows that regular LFT testing of at least every 3 days pretty much reduces community transmission to nil. Best revisit your calcs for demand... if Trump agrees, and he desperately needs to do something as it’s rampant in the US, that’s a lorra lorra tests. Add in the rest of the globe. Mass screening of populations every three days. That’s well over 1.4Bn tests a month ;-)
Be in no doubt, the only constraint to Awacta’s ability to bring in huge sums of money is manufacturing constraints.
RE: Yet another interesting AVACTA tweet...14 Jul 2020 14:33
Put the two together and what have you got? A high performance test that needs to be deployed frequently to reduce community transmission. Commercially fantastic and also fantastic for the global population.