Member Info for Pk73

@cebo, I’d add a third point in that it allows the money from a sale to leave Russia….. and possibly a fourth in that it avoids a haircut as it’s listed in a friendly jurisdiction rather than a perceived enemy….

What were thie bits he could divulge @gall?

I guess we'll find out in 31 days....

They would need to declare at the very least that it's been sent, but how much detail is in the RNS I don't know. Obviously they have a responsibility to inform shareholders of anything material which would allow us to make decisions on our invetments.... but they could argue that the details are not able to be discussed while they are in arbitration.

I am not sure what rules are there, but surely at the very least they wold need to nail an monetary amount to the mast as this info clearly affects the shareholders.

I fully expect some smoke and mirrors somewhere along this journey

Our think our Soc was ready to go a long time ago. I recall mark saying they initially ready to release it in December… but I think they’ve held off because the price of gold was rocketing.

I can’t think of any other reason for delay.

But there is certainty, @Gall, that there’s only 5.5 weeks before our knowledge of what we dealing with here increases exponentially….. time is a-flying! It’ll be on us before you know… and before trumponomic tariff pause is up (again)…

FIVE AND A HALF WEEKS….

Also something to note is that Greenx went to an MC of c.300m on an award of 252m on resolution of their 737m claim...... Apply that to PAT going to 50m more than an award of 34% of 1-2bn.....

Jeepers.

Time to sit on the hands for 700 days.....

I've fallen down a research rabbit hole.

This time looking at MC (On the basis that we are now fully funded and don't need any more placements until arbitration completion - so circa 245m shares) which negates any placement dilution.

On SOC date Greenx had an MC of around 50-57m. After Arbitration completion at it's peak it hit just over 300m valuation. This is simplistic in that ignores anything else going on in the comapny, but essentially it 6 bagged.

Their claim size of £737 resulted in an award of £252 - so 34%.

If our claim is, say 2bn and we are awarded 34%, so £680m, negating any other business conducted in africa etc, this would be £2.80 ish sp. You can obviously extrapolate up or down on that claim size estimate to your hearts content - But owais valued it north of 10bn in their bid..... Even if you half that 2bn example and go for base levels as per Marks interviews, it is good.

Greenx started their process with a greater MC than us, have a claim of much less than we expect, so in summary I would expect our rise to be signifanctly more than a 6 bagger as a result.

They now sit at an MC of £216m... we sit at £21m... all looking good from my perspective.

Hmmm... thats slightly disappointing and I wish I hadn't done that...

Looking at Greenx they issued their SoC on 9th June 2021, and the SP went from 0.218p to .278p. Then the SP bumbled along rangebound between .175p and .347p until November 2022 when over the course of 2 months it 4 bagged. The trigger for the main raise was the completion of the Arbitration hearing RNS on 28th Nov 2022. A final boost to the SP was after a suspension and then a placing, oddly.

My feeling to this is that GreenX was a frontrunner in the arbitration asset class and ducked under the radar, so the pattern we follow could/should be different... If this is the norm, then I have to say that history shows that the SOC release wasn't the catalyst I had hoped it was for movement.

If, however, the world now accepts the arbitration play after seeing several successful BITs come in favour of the company (especially one as clearly open and shut as we appear to be), then we could see that meteoric 4-bag plus come on issuance of SOC.

Hope thats the case, but I'm tempering my May enthusiasm now, just in case it doesn't happen like we think it should.

As a long term plan, though, which is my strategy, I'm not overly concerned when the ineviatble rise starts....

PK

I actually think not because of isa reset because many of those large unknown trades are over the 20k limit. I think they are just larger investors or investment companies taking position before mid to end of April. Word on 16th may is out there, and it would be interesting to look when other arbitration cases started seeing sp rise in relation to Soc release.

I’ll have a Quick Look today if I get chance.

I fully expect we are on a well trodden path here.

Pk

Me neither. It’s just AIM…. But it’s a good observation about ISAs… I wonder if an influx of new ISA money (as long as not coming from a bed) will release the brakes on this in the run up to may?

It’s neither here nor there for me what the sp is at the moment. I’ve built a pretty reasonable position over the last 4 years here, and apart from a small top slice if this hits half a quid so I’m on a free ride, I’m fully planning on long hauling it…. I’m lucky in I have now foreseeable cash calls, and have enough to pull on in other stocks if one pops up… I’m super confident in the two year or so potential here and will let it play its course…

I don’t think anyone on this bb right now will be in the red whatever they chose to do come may or June-ish.

Pk

No news inbound… but a sea of buys yesterday (a lot showing as unknown but the price strongly suggests buys - including one of my own despite me thinking I was happy with my stash!).

Yet the sp dropped 10%…. Go figure!

Less than six weeks to go to the big reveal (assuming they need to publish it rather than just say it’s been delivered to the court)… surely the inevitable re-rate isn’t going to wait until the 11th hour?

I mean, surely if the claim is north of 1bn, then the current market value of 22m is tosh? Pricing in a 2.2% chance of success is nothing short of bonkers….

Have a great weekend… pk.

“ Putin has suggested an interim government in Ukraine under the support of the UN, and adds that elections could then be held to hand power to a "capable government" to begin peace talks.

The Russian president suggests the UN's supervision would be in place "in order to hold a democratic election [in Ukraine], in order to bring in a competent government trusted by people".”

Seriously? You see the irony, right? Try replacing “putin” with “Zelensky”, and “Ukraine” with “Russia” if it helps you to understand how ridiculous this is…. Chief Russian apologist trump and his history-denying sycophants will jump on this idea no doubt, but anyone capable of critical thinking who isn’t chunks-deep in the far right wing propagandist machine, as most on here seem to be, can see straight through this.

Sick of this war as the next person, but perma-sucking off the Kremlin’s dictator isn’t the way to bring lasting peace…

Happy Friday…. Roll on the Astana listing for a chance to get this sold….

Sure as death and taxes, the 16th May will come round…. And the SoC released.

Two things… 1) expect churn and sp shenanigans to start at some point in the next 6 or so weeks and 2) I can’t foresee a future after 16th of May where the sp is less than where we are today unless point 1 is taken to extreme… if it does drop significantly from here, my hand’s straight down the back of the sofa and side of the car seat…. Kitchen sink time.

Pass the yoga mat, @gall, I’m pretty zen about it too.

@geng, it took a while but your prediction is spot on of next resistance level, and how it got there with no barriers.

What is your interpretation of the next movements? Notwithstanding a gamechanging piece of news in the pipeline which might skew the charts.

Be interested to hear if theres any clear indications.

Pk

Crikey, @Bash.... how long is your piece of string???

My tuppence is 20x plus... But happy with whatever really... I don't think my investment here is going to go red.

Max….

….or sooner……

Yep, GLG…. But the question was about sp and not market cap… just pointing out the sp has been higher than 60p!

July 1998 was when it dropped below 60p. Before that it was much higher than that!

Reading all your comments, it’s super healthy discussion.

For my tuppence, I’d be very happy with everyone’s lower estimates, and my happiness then goes up in direct correlation to Nelson’s upper estimate.

None of us have a clue where it’s going to be pitched, but the fact is…. Even the lower end is multiples of where we are today…. Very happy indeed here and counting down the days… 7 weeks??

Pk

Russian state has claimed assets worth $28.7 billion, prosecutor says - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-state-has-claimed-assets-worth-287-billion-prosecutor-says-2025-03-19/

2nd listing in Kazakhstan can’t come soon enough….