RE: Sunday Backside Driving Exercise4 Nov 2025 10:42
Oh and SocialistB, I think you chronically undervalue hemo car t.
HG CT 1 is applicable to all AML diagnosis that express FLT3. Which is around 80-100% of AML. (Not just FLT3 mutations - its pan-applicable to all FLT3 expressions). Which means the likelihood that HG CT 1 could be brought forward to front line treatment, not just r/r. Currently around only 30% of patients qualify for bone marrow transplant due to health and age issues. So what happens to the other 70%? There are zero alternative longer term solutions. All approved treatments are bridging treatments to get patients to to the bone marrow transplant - after which relapse swiftly returns. HSCT is risky in itself with most patients not fit along with high risk of infection during the treatment.
The application of HG CT 1 has a very high ceiling. At a fee of around per treatment of £350k-£400k per treatment and up to 20,000 patients diagnosed per year you can see why the potential income is monumental. Considering all of the bridging treatments we are intend to replace, those pharmas will quickly understand how that income could just disappear and they will all be considering the next best thing. I can see £200m+ upfront with significant milestones payments as we conclude phase one and then phase 2 and royalties off the back end on approval.
If you are a prospective buyer of HG CT 1 what are you waiting for to buy it now? imo its only one thing. CDMO sign off to begin manufacturing. Then everything is in place for commercial production of CAR T and the trial can move along as quickly as possible within the protocol parameters. DSMB external verification of the trial so far provides any big pharma with the assurances they need at this stage. Prospective buyers will have analysed the pre clinincal data in detail and see how the treated patients to date are likely dropping in line with that data and moving to the full recommended dose will have clear targets projected from pre clinicals.
The peds trials is pivotal. If we are allowed to begin treating the children before any offer comes in (who we know tend to react better on the whole to such treatment) then the price tag will skyrocket week by week. On a half dose we know it is safe in adults. If adult p4 passes safety on full dose and the first peds patient passes safety on the half dose, then for me, that is essentially proof of concept confirmed. Maybe I have a lower bar for what qualifies for POC but I am assuming P1 (2 and 3) remains alive in this assessment.
Feels fair to say we're in the window now. Vlad has confirmed he's speaking to big pharma, its not made up.
I remain as happy as larry and am enjoying watching things unfold. They can fiddle with the SP as much as they like but I will still have the same amount of shares.