RE: "A Happier Year for Petro Matad in 2025" - Progressive Report!20 Dec 2024 06:59
Here is the summary of the Progressive Report. This is a report that is valid and sets a true picture through a professional investment report.
Please remember that the majority of posters on this BB have their own private squabbles against one another, they are amateurs who try to guess what is going to happen in the future and have the mind set of kids in a play ground.
Here is the true picture.
Heron development
We detailed the development plans earlier, and these are unchanged from previous assumptions. For the base-case scenario we have assumed capital expenditure of US$251m, which covers the drilling of the wells (US$160m), the facilities (US$85m) and G & G/Seismic (US$6m). The operating costs once the field is up and running are expected to be US$10m per annum. With the target upside development, we have increased the facilities expenditure to US$135m to leave total capital expenditure at US$301m. The operating costs on the field are expected to rise to US$15m. We have also assumed that the company has spent US$57.7m on the field, which will be paid back through cost recovery.
Asset valuation
For the asset valuation, we take the value of the Heron Base Development, as there is still some uncertainty with the Heron Target Development. Although the reserves are in place, there are questions over the ability to get the recovery rate higher. We assume that there is a 50% chance of achieving this. As such, we add 50% of the incremental value of this development. We do not add any risked exploration given that we believe management is concentrating on building up oil production at the Heron field in 2025. We adjust for the balance sheet, with the company estimated to have net cash of US$2.5m at the end of 2024.
The following table details the asset value we derive for Petro Matad. For the Heron Base Development, we derive a value of approximately 9.3p/share The Heron Target Development and the cash balances add a further 2.6p/share. This gives a total risked valuation of 12.0p/share.