Member Info for pijoe1212

face to face at the investor show in april..i could not resist the opportunity while he was standing looking a little lost on the stand!

over the last few years i have commented here. very often i was shouted off this BB by uber rampers. i told you it was sour gas (CO)..oh no was the response (wrong) i told you it was tight gas and hence flow rates would not be stable and established for some time..oh no i was told (wrong) i told you the certification of the gas export line was an issue..oh no i was told simple matter and would take only weeks (wrong) i told you the ippc would take ages and ages..oh no i was told tomorrow..(wrong) now i predict: even with ippc the capex to put in ammie plant and proper dryers can not be financed based on current production experience. the dryers are not working to the level that enables the current export line to have a "long " life due to acid drop out (now what is long?) the resi is tight ..cap ex will be required just to stand still and who would put in the cap ex? and to what level of dilution? i loved CH's face when i put these points to him last month.. so "strategic review" means what? any option other than current i would suggest. anyway shout me off as before.

i agree 100% there is far more to factor into a valuation than simply TCF. but i think if you look at matters on a factual basis, using market valuations of 2C and prospective gas, you will reach the conclusion that sou remains massively over valued. only my opinion and i am not looking to buy in! (one has to admire mr parsnips for pumping sou so high!)

you called for change of management here. it happened. you pleased? (by the way i lobbied for ceo change 3 years ago behind the scenes!)

what response would you like? how to value 2c oil and gas or what? by the way dont forget ophr have oil in production (flowing bls and 2p reserves) which the market has put a value to.

mike GP your assesment is based on �1.50 per share / tcf. given sou has approx 1bn shares that means the mcap should be �1.5bn per TCF. now if you look at ophr. they have 2.6tcf in fortuna (of which they have 34% - call it 0.9tcf) and also have 20% of 15tcf in tanzania (call that 3tcf)..so about 4tcf..so they must be worth 4 times your �1.5bn per tcf valuation (�6bn mcap) .they have 706M shares in issue so lets call that some �8 per share. but you can buy ophr shares for 60p..so thats about 8% of your valuation basis. where as sou are at 86% n the same basis. do you think your valuation model in wrong? i do! (not even started on the capital to put the asset into production and the comparison between the cos).

no correction i see to the RNS..yet.. given the number of correction RNS's over the last 18 months, can anyone believe anything in any MSMN rns?

GL..back very soon i hope

i read the situation is the "engineering study" as being the assessment of the engineering to effect production via scott. FEED is the detailed design of the changes / facilities into procurement and construction design definition. in broad terms the current study would define the FEED scope and inputs. i think SOB is correct to highlight the lowlander addition into the "engineering pot" (i think lowlander is higher h2s?) and the AGR resi study as two further inputs to the process. of course we also know outline tenders are in also for the FPSO option. it looks to me that pmg has two potentially viable options to take pdl forward. it is not a simple choice either given the engineering issues and cost issues and the control "v" 3rd party involvement. (i think this last point is more material to TC than it would be to most).

ralph. oil price does impact rkh - at over $60, the chance of SL going ahead is real (i would not see it happening at sub $60 oil). the further over $60 it is the better the chance. so i would suggest oil price is material to rkh. i think you are largely correct about the rise being PI driven but i would not not discount II's buying also as both short term and long term holdings. i would also make the point that post FID (and i agree with you comment about next news is bank news not fid!) rkh would have a value based on NPV of the 2p oil (or the value of the 2p oil whichever way one wishes to view it) which would be far higher than current value. clearly the cash at bank has a value and so does the current production. the mcap is higher than the cash plus current production value- the difference is the "SL & other fkl asset value". in effect the market is putting a risk % to the post FID value. i would suggest the move from c.20p to current sp could be viewed as the SL chance of moving ahead moving from 5% to say 20% (approx!). now is 20% a fair risk? with regard to pmo, i will not comment on the history other than to note the frustration and issues that resulted. this key matter to me is will pmo take this forward? i think they will as the they need to (production declines looking forward over 4 years) and have sunk much cash into SL. clearly the "imminent" bank rns is key both to short term sp (it will continue to drift i think) and in moving the market "risk" % on sl fid.

Not again- after my prior specific letter to the fca / aim regulation on the subject of Msmn rns containing material in accuracy�s. Once again Msmn put out a factually inaccurate rns! Mind blowing incompetence! Bet they correct tomorrow pdq!

i do not know. the potential tax change was not flagged to me as an issue prior to this year- irrelevant or lack of knowledge? my view is pmo have used the ukcs tax change discussion as part of the process of reducing sl costs and getting fi gov to review tax and cost..

i hear various things from several "mates" about oilers and rkh specifically who are very well connected. i do not post as when i know they are fact i generally can not post (not inside info but too close in my view!) and when it is "hearsay" i do not post as it could be wrong and hence could miss lead! i did however post back before xmass i was expecting finance news between april and may (not before as many hoped) and that view has not changed.

not posted this before but for what it is worth a comment was made to me a few years back about a bloke in Salisbury who was as keen as me on oilers and bb posting etc..i was told his wife worked for rkh on the admin side...(comment from a then senior town council man)..never meet the bloke referred to but it had a ring of truth (believability?) to it. anyway in my experience bogroll has cost peeps money in the past. i think he is now taking the *iss out of the ii posters.

of the 36 oil stocks i track, 29 are down and 1 is unchanged. oil price not really moved..perhaps traders are taking money off the table after the us oil build? (pmo / cne / sdx / sia all moved down by similar amounts)

bogroll has got many "predictions" wrong..do you recall the posts while the last drilling was on going? made a positive call one friday pm (humpback drill i recall..oil in the shakers) ..that was when i dumped fogl and started to buy into rkh. i think what we are seeing at the moment is nothing more than a few pi's selling as they are board and some profit taking - it is close to bagging from the lows and 50% up in a matter of weeks, so no great surprise. i remain with confidence...

is it just me or is his command of the written English language as bad as mine?

lol..i think that is an lse problem! not sure if it is a relist of a prior co? but low freefloat (c.50% owned by the dirs) and hopefully oil production in next 6 months - sufficient to cover costs i think..

prd listed today..looks interesting to me..taken a few

Ops...!!!