Member Info for pijoe1212

evening AA. i have seen it as a jam tomorrow stock from day one of list. (very much like saffron at much the same time). too small for plc costs and small crappy assets - potential to 2 "sell a story" prospective assets. does the chairman / ceo (sefton) not have interesting history? not one for me as in my view a momentum play only. i would call it a sell but i am guessing.

� & $ ..mix and match.. bu the the principle remains plus iphone typos!

lol..i am pls to comment on a hur matter. that of if and how oil price interlinks with hur sp. (i hate poo as a term..) i have posted before and will post again there is a key metric - that of EV (Mcap + net debt / cash) to flowing bls. if you look at listed oilers you will find a relatively narrow range on this (about $40K to $70K with only a few outliers). as i have posted before "the market" is a collective view and it tends to a central point on average. so the small range should not come as any surprise. if you look at history of cos that have brought oil into production in recent years the EV / flowing bl moves from lower values at project inception to "market value" once the scheme reaches first oil. i have simplified a blend of oily cos on ths point as projects have set backs / oil moves in price etc, but the principle remains. now if you look at hur on an EV / flow bls basis i remain of the view the base case is the 17K bls/ day. i would take the EV as the mcap plus the conv bond value less say $75M (free cash is nothing goes wrong). lets say $900 +$220- $75..so about �1,05bn. lets call it $1.3bn. using $60K / flowing bl this gives a target EV of some $1 bn. so one could say that some 20% of the current sp reflects the "non 2p eps bls valuation". all great i hear you say..but what has that to do with oil price? well it is simple in my view. it is not about what the rest of the oil is "worth" (as that depends on when and how fats it is produced) - it is all about the chance of it being monitiesed (farm out / sale / direct production). i think hur has a tipping point on oil price when the EV moves at a higher % rate than oil price does (which all oilers have - called the breakeven point!), which is different to other oilers. the resource is very (!) large but until EPS "proves the techy case" will the non-EPS oil reach this tipping point? now no one can "value" the non-EPS oil as an absolute in $ / bl but in fact the market does / has and is via the SP. but is that valuation correct? what makes it move? ricefle made a very valid point about what happens if oil goes to $1 /bl. i would suggest the same the other way.. there will be a tipping point at which the oil "bulls" see hur 2C oil as "valuable" and price this into the mcap.. but does this need the EPS to be proven? i think it does and that is why the 2C is market valued at cents/ bl but that will change with oil price after a step point..

ijwt..just to prove a point (in response to wellwell's comment). i posted this between xmass and new year 2017 on a bb that runs a "share pick of the year comp": "put me down for PMG (would go for rkh but i think Q1 2019 for the big move!) cheers guys for keeping track every month or so (and i enjoy as it forces me to think 12 months in the run up to christmas!)" anyway that is far enough from me on this BB about other stocks..

Run your slide rule over the post foil numbers for rocky. Of course then risk the answer and discount for time..then get a bigger slide rule for phase 2. Seriously the investment case can be compared to Hur. Very different mcap. Then check out the ev on Pmg and the investment case. Not ramping either- they are different investment cases to Hur, but give how the long term holders here like risk (! Must be true given the drilling risk etc!?) could be of interest. As always dyor ( homework as I call it!)

Junior been playing on your pc again? Lol

Sorry for delay- no problem answering polite (?!) questions. I am not invested , went into Rkh and Pmg very over weight to my normal limit between jan and April and it remains the same. Now before you again accuse me of just making it up by looking at history, there is a poster on here who knows this - I told him several times over recent months! The reason I did not get back into Hur was the potential for cb conversions capping the sp.

The statements on Ophr are a sick joke- shockingly poor jurno work

Pmo rns clearly unsettled peeps. To me it said something very clearly I did not expect. Pmo have always said debt reduction was key. I don�t think peeps realise vendor financing is largely for plant and export finance is very much for plant and equipment. Sl needs kit but also needs labour and services for install and commissioning- I find it difficult to see how that can be export credit can be used to pay for the non- equipment bits. Pmo have made it clear equity (c.$400m I recall) will be needed. I think that has always been for the install and comm costs. Now what was very interesting was the statements about ebitda falling below 3x by end of 2019. I believe the creditor approval for cap ex which is currently in place fails Away at this level. So to me Pmo have effectively said sl moves forward as stated previously and Pmo have the capability of sanction and fid as the time between lender block on cap ex (should they wish to block of course!) and time when equity input is required is now comfortable. What has changed is the oil price and the ability to lock in some of that via hedges. I was not expecting that 3x timeline to be as close as it is!

LOL..!!

i bought on a cd175 honda for �5 in 1982..did work and sold for new set of tyres for Z750....um?!!!

thks for the pics..so we know its not a con the AM is where Doccy T told us LOL...but your shoes? what the F!..we need missdosh to advise you PDQ...or wellwell ?!!

you get my tips..LOL..poker calling i know!

doyle "80p nailed on before news as the market wakes up to the sheer potential here." so you all in here then? or just a wish?

SF..it was isengard who wanted out..good luck to him i say as clearly out now and i know him of old..not a bad lad.. i no longer post my buys..but i often I do sales...too many trolls..LOL

will find myself in my spare time!

hi Zen i think this was discussed last year on the sp BB. i use $55K / flowing bl as a key metric...at least i did as it seams to be moving up with oil price ..more like $65K now. the key thing is such valuations are based on flowing bls, which includes the cap ex. one also has to think about the time discounts (NPV10..etc). now pmg has to get the 2P into production and that will take either cash or farm down or a "scott fee".. but what has changed here is the investment climate in oil and NS and the potetnial means to produce via scott.. so i do not disagree with your $ / flowing bls (LOL..why would i given my prior comments on the matter?!!) regarding the 2p valuation.. GPA would not have got 2p certification at sub $50 oil price in my view (sour & fpso). it now justifies 2p undeveloped valuations (which i take at $2 to $5 tops). any news on scott off take materially changes that in my view. anyway..i have increased my holding here since last dec (mainly in jan / feb)- to 5 times what it was..

anyone else noted still low level of placings since Beaufort & pals exposed by the us rozers..?

if you change your mind..!! lol.i love working with oak..got meters cubed of the stuff..floors / wall panelling / even make skirting and archive in solid.

if you are a little bored and needing to keep your tools up to speed..i have 2,000 foot sq (added to 600 foot sq bungalow) in need of second fix joinery / electric / decorating etc etc. managed to (almost!) finish bathrooms 2 and 3 in last 2 months....