Member Info for pickedpeck

Quite a number of trades after the bell today including the 10m share one. I do keep having to look at the value rather than the number of shares involved though!

Besides, if I had the influence to affect the price of a £4.5Bn mkt cap company then I wouldn't be wasting my time here with you lot :)

July last year it was over 170p . Is the business better or worse since then? Subscribers up or down? Payment numbers up or down? The only possible argument is they have overpaid for 5G, and remain vulnerable to currency fluctuations. Otherwise it is hardly a ramp saying its going to trade within its 12 month range.

Why are we arguing over analyst predictions when exactly zero of them predicted the current price 12 months ago?

https://knoema.com/ydolvrc/nickel-price-forecasts-long-term-2021-to-2030-data-and-charts
'The World Bank, in its commodity forecast report, estimated that nickel prices will fall to a low of $16,000 per metric ton in 2022, but they expect the average spot price for nickel will grow slightly further after the correction, reaching $18,000 per metric ton by the end of the year.'

December 2021 https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/base-metals-investing/nickel-investing/nickel-outlook-price-gains/

'Sharing his thoughts with INN, Andrew Mitchell, Wood Mackenzie's head of nickel research, said that, broadly speaking, the nickel market performed as expected. His firm started the year with a 2021 price forecast of US$19,400, with prices now likely to average around US$18,500 for the year....
Looking over to prices, Wood Mackenzie expects nickel prices to remain strong at about US$19,800 in nominal dollar terms. Similarly, CRU expects prices to remain at high levels.'

I particularly like this one:
'On 1 December 2022, ANZ Research forecasted nickel to average $25,130 a tonne in 2022, falling to $22,575 in 2023 and dropping further to $19,225 in 2024.' Making a full year prediction with only one month of the year left is hardly valuable insight.

I thought Wood Mac, ANZ, and the World Bank would be enough to illustrate the point. There are dozens more. What they all share is getting the market wrong by a long way on pretty much every forecast variable for 2022. Expecting the same people to do better in 2023 is silly.

Macro factors that could swing in multiple directions will enormously influence the price for the next three years. These people making predictions are not stupid, it is just very very hard to predict:

1. The war in Ukraine is dragging on more than anyone expected. Sanctions on Russia may well eventually affect base metals as well as oil exports, and also affect machinery maintenance by Norilsk. Even if the war ended tomorrow, its after effects will go on for years.

2. Global recesssion. Just as everyone gets their head around there being a future global recession we may in fact already be emerging out of it. Energy prices have retreated which were the primary driving factor. As oil and gas prices fall the knock on effect for industrial energy production and transports will start to reduce inflation, with a lag time of 6 months. If we are indeed over the worst then global recovery will boost demand cycles for all minerals towards the end of 2023.

3. China, Indonesia, Philippines. Export bans, ability to ramp up, environmental credentials, sabre rattling over Taiwan, and even balloongate mean no one in the west wants to solely depend on China for supplies anymore.

4. LME instability and dwindling stocks. SMM is currently trading at a hefty premium to LME after the debacle of the spring,

Why not wait for 143p then you will have 20%. Even better wait for 156p and 30%. We will likely see both those figures inside 12 months.

No, but the difference isn't as big as it was.
From the Interim results Mon, 24th Sep 2018
Interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2018:

Financial highlights

· Revenues of $59.1 million (H1 2017: $67.9 million)
· Gross profit of $33.5 million (H1 2017: $35.2 million)
· Adjusted EBITDA of $20.9 million (H1 2017: $22.8 million)
· Profit before tax of $16.8 million (H1 2017: $19.5 million)
· Interim dividend of $6.5 million or 3.0040 cents per share (H1 2017: 4.0226 cents per share); and
· Strong balance sheet with $51.3 million of cash and short-term investments to be deployed in further acquisitions for future growth

From last weeks trading update:

The Group expects its full year consolidated results for FY 2022 to be in line with expectations, delivering revenue of approximately US$73.7 million (2021: US$66.5 million) and Adjusted EBITDA1 in the range of US$16.1 million to US$16.6 million.

In 2018 a half year EBITDA was bigger than the current FY forecast. There was a large dividend, and a lot more cash in the bank. However I would argue 2018 was the downward turning point where Ory Weihs was overpaying for acquisitions which proved to have less value than expected. The company spent that cash pile creating a diverse and unmanageable multiheaded monster.

Now I'd say the focus on sports betting in the US is more likely to deliver sustainable growth over the next 1-5 years, a return to solid profitability, and who knows, even a restart of dividends.

So maybe its a smaller and currently less profitable business, but also one more focused and with more chance of achieving growth targets.

In fact in April 2021 this was 67p. A lot happened in between obviously, but it is fairly easy to argue this is a better business now than then. Less diverse, more focused on key growth market.

Up more than 12% from the last post. The underlying business is growing and strong, that has value that is starting to show. Looking for a recovery to 145-155 over next 3 months.

41p within the last 12 months. The numbers are better now than they were then, growth and revenue up, exceptional charges done, profit returning, markets opening up.
Yes its a good price to buy at.

Another tidy sized delayed trade posted mid afternoon today. £235k buy at 159.50 from Friday close.

03-Feb-23 16:30:01 159.50 147,300 Unknown* 154.00 156.00 234.94k

A quick glance at the three month chart shows when institutional interest (re) started. HZM has gained 70p a share since early November, this isn't being driven by PIs.

I agree any potential in bound offers will come when there is production and a minimal time to payback, but I also expect a strong rise between now and that point as it becomes increasingly obvious what is going on. I'm still backing the second quarter of 2024 as the most likely first point for an offer, but it could come anytime from today onwards.

It's interesting the comparison between Vermelho and Araguaia. Vermelho was drilled intensively by Vale. It's a large area at between 2 and 3 thousand hectares. Vale drilled hundreds of locations to prove up the resources.

Araguaia on the other hand is ridiculously large. It's more than 50x the geographic area of Vermelho. Right now the company is opening up Araguaia South, but Araguaia North, with no current development plan, is as big again. The vast majority of Araguaia is undrilled right now. The company doesn't shout about its land bank ever for some reason, but around 25 concessions with over 300,000 acres is a nickel district not a nickel mine.

You want round numbers, see the delayed trades for today just posted.

Interesting that the MMs delayed some relatively smaller trades.

I thought I had better look how it worked... :-)

They analyse every listed company every day using AI and produce a standardised report.

Here is a video by the founder describing it but skipping the fact it is all done with AI and automation. https://youtu.be/nx6hso9B-z0

Its done periodically by an AI bot pre-programmed to churn out articles. I doubt anyone pressed a button with an agenda in mind. If you wanted that kind of conspiracy it would be far better to look at broker coverage, which incidentally has been astonishingly quiet given the evolving situation of the company.

Wasa, I would prefer it if they could buy around 16 HZMs personally. What would be more interesting would be them buying Glencore, which even more weirdly they could almost afford out of 1.5 years profit.

It may be targeted and timed, but the AI output is still **** poor and irrelevant. The bottom infographic says it all : 'Solid balance sheet with moderate growth prospects'. That's not exactly insightful is it?

Bad quarter, good business. The underlying business is solid with customer base continuing to rapidly increase and sustained profitability.
Drop is over done.

PGE,
I think it's a mistake to think of VAG as a European manufacturer, their factories are distributed globally including in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines plus lots of other locations. Particularly relevant here though is Volkswagen do Brasil with four factories and 22,500 employees, the largest auto producer in Brazil.

The EV market in Brazil is tiny, only passing 100,000 vehicles in 2022 and 2.4% market share. BYD forecast that market share to quadruple by 2025. As a result VAG have to start making an EV offer there beyond the tiny truck production volumes from Resende. The ID range is currently not built or offered in Brazil - but could easily be.

I can see the moves by Indonesia and Philippines to limit Nickel ore exports being replicated by Brazil, particularly with Lula moving to protect Brazilian workers.

Brazil is perhaps a natural for EVs, with extremely cheap, clean, and plentiful hydro electric power combined with sprawling urban centres where traffic pollution is a big problem.

All of which points to a potential local market emerging for Vermelho nickel production, with VAG a more likely partner than Tesla.

Just thinking out loud.

Weird how today's intraday chart and the 3 month chart look almost the same. Trends on both only going one way at the moment. Adding in the special dividend this is going along quite nicely on a consistent rise gradient.