Member Info for pickedpeck

I did the opposite to Strummer I guess. In old. Oney at the time of the deal I had 8m shares at a 3.9p average, 400,000 ish new.

After the price fell post deal like many I was disappointed, but did the numbers and still believed enough to hold what I had as I was sure it would recover sooner or later. By that logic I thought 85p and 91p were bargains, so added a couple of hundred thousand. Now bang on 600,000 shares, haven't worked out the new average but they are in ii's numbers.

I'd like to think I bought DJryans shares, he was selling at the same time as I was buying, didn't say much at the time though.

My holding will fluctuate, I'm in the market for a replacement boat and if the right one comes up I will likely take some out to pay for it.. Oney is for spending despite how nice it is to look at sometimes.

FWIW I also hold RR., LGEN, BME, ABF, ECOR, PAF, QQ., AAF, and XLM but HZM is by far the largest.

We are not seeing the real market that's for sure.

Interesting that most of the posters here have decent sized holdings. I think BwanaMakubwa made the point that if the large majority of retail investors are now holding on for a bid or even dividends, anyone wanting to buy in now in volume is going to be met with a shortage of available stock and the price will move quickly should there be any serious buying pressure.

12 months to first metal?

Just to summarise everyone's guesses so far:

strevs a) 600 b) 480
ihowells a) 580 b) 460
Soundbuy a) 560 b) -
Oilyrags a) 520 b) 450
LawrenceH a) 500 b) 600
Nthof theRievr a) 500 b) 400
BwanaMakubwa a) 475 b) 400
D220 a) 426 b) 368
PickedPeck a) 420 b) 380
TopGun333 a) 400 b) -
DanInvestor a) 300 b) 230
Contrarian123 a) 85 b) 80

Did I miss anyone? Just a reminder that a) is the forecast take out price, b) the price June 30th 2024 if we are not taken out.

Excluding Contrarian by his silence, the average forecast take out price is 480p , the average price forecast for June 30th 2024 is 418p. Either would suit me, but I genuinely think the numbers will be lower, I thought I was being optimistic with my below average forecast!

The A1 NPV is currently thought to be inflated by the current nickel price, consensus has Ni falling back to the low 20s making the NPV a fair bit lower. Working with 23k Ni instead of 30k is probably fairer. Having said that, consensus has been sonsistently wrong on Ni so it could go anywhere.

Just out of curiosity does anyone really understand why A2 NPV is lower than A1? Same forecast production level, lower amount of finance needed, a lot of work done already reducing build time, cost, and scope. That's without even thinking about the secondhand equipment.

A non-exec appointment and no obvious trades driving it, so what's occurring?

Charts have their place. I just doubt they are relevant here.

Today's traded volume was below 100,000 shares. I know of quite a few PIs that hold a lot more than that. That means that one large PI could shift the price on days like this. A chart can't tell you if today is the day they want to buy a Porsche or a yacht. With relatively low liquidity the share price here is subject to individual investor whims.

OK, a PI is not going to move the share 40p, but Helikon just did. Institutional decision making here is very unlikely to be chart based either. They are buy and hold for the most part based on balance sheet forecasting and underlying value realisation. The institutions are not trading this in any meaningful volume.

In the trades today, and pretty much all days, there were no A trades here. In the bigger volume shares chart algorithms are a self fulfilling prophecy as the bot trades analyse the data in real time to make optimal buy and sell decisions. Even the AI based ones have had some training, almost all based on related chartist theory. Which came first, the bots or the charts? Where you have millions traded, in thousands of transactions, and want to achieve a 0.05% better trade margin, charts have a place.

In general I believe trading this share is a mugs game. Its too low volume, too driven by individual emotional and unpredictable decisions. Investing, where value enhancement shifts the share price over the longer term, is a much easier route to profit.

Wow.

So let me get this straight, you think somehow it is worse to be able to fund the company's development projects from profits, rather than say further debt or more equity dilution? Or would you rather they have away a big portion of future income to a royalty streamer? Perhaps the company should fund A2 and V from the magic money trees they have been planting? I mean how hard can it be to grow a billion and a half dollars?

I suggest you take your money out of the stock market and put it back in your piggy bank, then before trying again take a course or two, say mathematics and possibly some basic accounting.

I suppose a sharp rise should be expected to bring out the bonkers. We will have Geng and Contrarian here next forecasting a pull back based on astrological alignments causing gaps between ears.

Not that I think its likely in these circumstances, but its not exactly hard to imagine the mechanisms of one of the world's largest miners and mineral development companies twisting some arms and offering some incentives. Lets face it, they have form.

'Play nice on this deal and we will work with you on this other JV we need financing' . Horizonte have one deal in play, Glencore has dozens.
Conversely if you were a mine financing company would you really want to pi*s off one of the biggest players in the industry?

However HZM played a blinder in defending against this by having not one but two mine financiers involved, and not one bank but a consortium. Much harder to convince everyone to dance to your tune.

Lawrence, I agree it beggars belief now that this is still in the 7p old money range. By any measure risk is lower (finance in place, build in progress), reward is higher (Ni Price 2 x base model price).

I don't think it is being held back, no one has the mechanism to do so. Having said that I wouldn't be surprised by an early bid now to test shareholders resolve. Doubling your money instantly is always tempting even if there is possibly a lot more jam tomorrow.

Biggest concern is when. I'd rather it was after nameplate, with a Vermlho FS and possibly partner in hand, with A2 permitted and under way.

I would be happy if they could fend it all off for as long as possible, but even they admitted that M&A is hotting up. At the current share price we are a target, just depends what Orion and La Mancha will take as a return.

Taufour.

No, they previously said they would provide a progress report post debt draw down, they are just fulfilling that obligation. If you watched the presentation its not really fair to say they had nothing to report.

The elephant in the room is the current share price. At current Ni price NPV is around £1.7Bn for A1 alone, with mkt cap wallowing at under 25% of that there either is going to be a significant rerate between now and production or someone will be tempted to bid. As the risks diminish and construction progresses its building up a pressure for one or the other to happen.

If Glen bid 280p tomorrow would they get enough takers to get it? Still under 50% of NPV of just A1 at today's NI prices.

VW, Ford, Tesla. All busy looking to partner with miners.

The only thing to worry about off the back of this is why isn't there any bad news?

British = cynical = suspicious of only good news!

You can use the link https://www.investormeetcompany.com/investor/meetings to pose questions ahead of time. I've already put 5 in :)

Fulmar, I have several T-shirts from that particular tour. The hope I have here is the fact both Orion and La Mancha bought in at higher average prices than today, and I don't think will be minded to take a low return on their investments. I agree PIs are not and never are the main consideration, but the board getting us aligned with two mine finance orgs derisks it a bit. I don't think GLEN can just swan in, offer a price, and force everyone to take it.

Guess a low one then. you miserable sod.

Having said that Polyhalite is a slightly different (non existent) market to Nickel. Building a deep underground mine is a different prospect to shallow open pit. Getting permits in the UK is different to already having them in Brazil. Being unable to raise funds is different to having already raised equity and loan finance with huge contingency. Being 12 months from production ramp up is different than having no hope of getting there. The only similarity is the word 'mine' in fact.

Any PI investing because of a price competition is a f*ckwit. What I would say is that HZM represents an excellent risk to reward investment, with the known risks all handled and only a further 'black swan' event preventing the company becoming a Nickel producer, and very profitable indeed.

I would 100% encourage any private investor considering this Risk Reward statement to do their own research. Read the Investor presentations, the last four years of RNS posts, news coverage, market wide news, and specific Nickel market news. Make their own decision on the direction of the Nickel market and likely future price of NI, and then make a guess at the future NPV of HZM based on whether they believe Araguaia will make nameplate production in Q1 2024 or not. From that they could make an educated guess as to the future share price based on the NPV 18 months from now.

Actually guessing HZM future price is now a lot easier than it was, but it is still GUESSING!

Lawrence - a) is the final bid price, b) is the price 30th June 2024. Your suggestion seems to imply the take out price will be below the price in 18 months time? Are you suggesting we get taken out early, but if we don't then the open market price will be higher?

Fulmar - a) is 'The take out final bid price', zero may be a little low as the forecast price.

Its even harder to predict what will happen with the Ni price for 2023. I don't see anyone able to explain the current rise as LME stocks grow, and I haven't seen many sticking their necks out with predictions for 2023 pricing let alone beyond.

We are close enough to production now that it is all good, there aren't many other new projects coming on line before HZM do. Even a fall back to below $20k a ton, which for some reason remains an unlikely prospect, would be good for HZM in the long run as it would suppress the rush of other projects, making financing harder to get and ultimately constraining capacity.

I would even go as far as to say that the best prospect of maximum long term HZM value would be a Ni price fall to somewhere in the $16-20k region for the next 2 years. Reduced Ni pricing may suppress consolidation activity, definitely suppress new projects, may mean Orion and La Mancha develop some patience based on longer term forecasts, and we get A1 nameplate and A2 built. Full production from those two as the Ni price then recovers, with Vermelho in the development wings, would see a much larger sale price than if we go just after A1.