Member Info for pickedpeck

ihowells a) 580 b) 460
Soundbuy a) 560 b) -
Oilyrags a) 520 b) 450
LawrenceH a) 600 b) 500 (I'm assuming you got these the wrong way round L)
Nthof theRievr a) 500 b) 400
BwanaMakubwa a) 475 b) 400
PickedPeck a) 420 b) 380 (3x in 18 months and I am the pessimist!)
TopGun333 a) 400 b) -
Contrarian123 a) 85 b) 80

I was worried for a bit there that my prediction would be closest to Contrarians!

I could add these up and take an average, and try and sell it as a consulting note!

The chart says there is a gap caused by a triple white cross candlestick, but the bollingers mean the moving average can be assumed to be in the house of the rising sun, or possibly Jupiter Rising., that one with the roller skates. I can see a tall dark stranger investing in your company too, but his stochastics are off and so the head and shoulders knees and toes pattern means a steady inverted rise before hyperbolically falling.

There, whatever happens I have it covered with a prediction now.

Since 8th November HZM is now up 68%, not a bad monthly rise. There are lots of round number trades gone through over the last couple of weeks. PIs tend to buy in more random chunks, I think there may be a new institutional holder building up a position. The bank news this week may also have tweaked some order books!

Yep.

Rover - I don't think there is any possibility of us not being taken out at some point well before Vermelho gets built.

It is all but openly stated company strategy, the assets are too valuable to be independent, and the mining industry will be cash rich and consolidating. Even the current ownership structure means we are set up for it, with both La Mancha and Orion having finite investment timelines (3-5y) as core business strategy.

Glencore already owning a big chunk makes them the most likely buyer, but it is not entirely impossible that a rival could bid. However if you accept that both Orion and La Mancha will want an exit at some point, it is hard to imagine how that could happen other than a bid.

Not many offers so far then!

Soundbuy a) 560 b) -
Oilyrags a) 520 b) -
BwanaMakubwa a) 475 b) 400
PickedPeck a) 420 b) 380 (3x in 18 months and I am the pessimist!)

Not like Wasa not to have a guess!

In an egg and bacon breakfast, the chicken is involved, but the pig is committed.

Up until now the banks have been chickens, but after today they are now definitely in the pig camp.

Ther are now no major barriers or risks left to becoming a major nickel producer. As a result I am prepared to start a sweepstake for either:

a) The take out final bid price
b) The closing price June 30th 2024

Whichever comes first. I know 18 months may seem a long time, but with the share price around 7p old, 140p new, we could well be, in the words of Jez Martin 'Be many multiples of today's share price by then'. (quote from October investment presentation, 45:15 into https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diE1iCpZWac)

Blimey.

So where is Contrarian anyway? Amusing penultimate post from him.

"For the record I am out since my entry. As I said swing trade only - Expect this to drift down again."

That was posted with the price at 100.50 , so bang (not) on the money as usual. Most humans would put their hand up and say . 'yep got that wrong', but we get stony silence instead.

There is still over a year until first metal, and a lot can happen good or bad between now and then.

https://www.panafricanresources.com/investors/news-sens-rns/

Not exactly hard to find.

I understood that the Kent town ceased to exist due to a contestant's unfortunate choice on Noel Edmonds 'Deal or No Deal' show.

One other thing, China appears to be easing off covid lock down restrictions, opening up their economic activity further. That is bound to create demand for raw materials over the next month or three. ECORA's mining royalties are all over, but the destination for a lot of the commodities is China.

Check out the area just to the SE of the plant build site, unfortunately partly covered with cloud. That's new activity, and that's where the ore will be coming out of the ground.

Even more undervalued now. The price movement here has been very surprising I have to admit. There seems to be no rational reason for the drop.

Weirdly, and I accept this is a bit of a conspiracy theory, a lot of the trades on ECOR are bot based Automatics. I do wonder if the name change has skewed the bot algorithms. Social media listening and web sentiment scraping feed into the bot algorithms, and with very little web noise apart from complaints on the name change the sentiment on ECOR would appear to be negative. It's the bots that are selling this down, and I don't think the new branding and growth strategy has picked up enough recognition to over ride them yet. When was the last time you saw an unequivocally positive post or news article on ECOR? Mad but possibly true.

However, in the Q3 trading update we got this from Marc Bishop Lafleche, Chief Executive Office of Ecora:

"The South32 royalty portfolio acquisition has positioned copper, nickel and cobalt at the centre of Ecora's commodity exposure with the Company poised to benefit from a strong fundamental demand outlook over the next decade.

We expect a strong finish to the year with key commodity prices underlying our portfolio currently in excess of average Q3 price levels. As a permanent source of capital to the mining sector, we are well positioned to respond to opportunities which may present themselves as a result of challenging market conditions"

I'm buying on the basis of that statement, and because I expect a bit of a santa rally on this with the next xd on the 12th Jan, and because it has been sold down by dumb ass bots.

Logically I agree with you, it's just the price doesn't seem to be reflecting that logic at the moment. I've been expecting a price pull back to around $20k since Big Shot hit his own foot, he should know more about supply and demand than anyone. I have to admit to not really understanding why the price is still where it is, plainly something I am not seeing.

Interesting angle. The new found opacity of the market adds to the complexity of the situation. If this situation was accurate right now then the price would already be lower, and the longer contracts for 23 24 ands 25 would be showing a decline in price, whereas the opposite is currently true:

CONTRACT BID OFFER
Cash 26900.00 26950.00
3-month 26900.00 26950.00
Dec-23 27490.00 27540.00
Dec-24 28435.00 28485.00
Dec-25 29260.00 29310.00

The rising longer contract settlements imply an expectation of shortage rather than surplus by those contract dates.

Goldmna Sachs switched from Sell to Neutral, price target from 1460 to 1900. Talk about poor timing, if you were following their advice you would have been selling into the rise until today. Predicting what has already happened isn't particularly valuable.

There are lots of ways of calculating price targets here, personal or corporately.

Starring with the obvious NPV based one. Loosely Araguaia Stage 1 NPV is around £1Bn at the current Ni price. If that's all the company had, and it made it into nameplate production, that would be the company baseline valuation. That translates to about 380p a share, as recently validated by BoA. Their current valuation (12 month target) of 190p is 0.5x NPV for stage 1.

Stage 1 can be more or less valuable based on the Nickel price. If it rises, as almost everyone expects, then the NPV goes up sharply. In round numbers about 50m per $1000 on the nickel price.

Araguaia Stage 2 adds between £750m (original HZM estimate) and £1.2Bn to the NPV. If they get that far, which seems unlikely, then in 2026 the company valuation should be 650-700p based on Araguaia alone.

I don't believe Vermelho will ever get to production under HZM ownership. Having a FS makes its valuation investable, 10% of £2.5Bn NPV could be added, or around 100p per share.

Aside from NPV we could use Orion and La Mancha price entry points and return targets. Both bought the bulk of their shares at 140p with a stated aim of 3-5x return, or 420 - 700p per share. Aligning with NPV and their 3-5 year investment timescales means they are aiming to sell for that valuation after Stage 1 full production, Vermelho FS in hand, with A2 in build. I'd guess they are really aiming at over 500p in around late 2024 into 2025.

Glencore started their stake at 10p a share in old money, or 200p in new. I still think Glen will be the most likely buyers, but when and at how much is anyone's guess. My guess would be at a similar point, nameplate production for A1. Its the point where they get the fastest return on capital and biggest upside regardless of price. I am hoping for an Orion / La Mancha auction between Glen and Vale, or others to push the price up.

Other wild cards could happen. Partnership on Vermelho, I think a sale seems less likely. Three way partnershio between Tesla, HZM and Glen anyone? Who knows what that would mean for valuation. I don't think it will happen until credibility has been established by getting A1 to production.

For my own target I like income based targets. $250m from A1 annually would put them between $1.5 and $2.0Bn on a PE or eps basis with a still huge upside. That's 450-500p in round numbers. So... My current price target is 500p by 2025.

0.5% of Araguaia Stage 1 NPV. Makes full stage 1 NPV 380p in their view. Given the cost savings made with the equipment purchase and also some of the advanced spend in readiness for Phase 2, the NPV of Ph 2 should be significantly higher, but at least double would be a baseline assumption.

If we get that far then Vermelho comes into play.

I hadn't twigged that La Mancha, Glencore, and Orion collectively own 51%. That's a suspiciously coincidental number.

To be fair, not many people would have predicted a European war, interest rates to multiply by 10x, China to be still enacting lock downs a year after the rest of the world stopped, and the price of electricity to quadruple.

Considering HZM was raising very large amounts of debt at the same time as the open offer their timing turned out pretty well, despite the subsequent roller coaster ride.

Along with ABF (Primark) BME look set to be retail winners in the current climate. In Dec 2021 they hit 644p, I can see a recovery to above 600p by March. Inevitably BME will have to include inflationary costs in prices, raising the raw figures.