Member Info for pickedpeck

Interesting drop back on seemingly no volume. Seems like there is always more going on than meets the eye here. Meanwhile the paint gets ever drier.

Its an interesting article. Hard to believe the 6 year reserves, but culturally 'normal' to exploit now and tomorrow be damned for the Chinese companies. Ore grades will go downhill increasing production costs dramatically a long time before the reserves are fully depleted.

... And to keep existing holders happy and confident that progress is being made accoreing to plan.

Right now existing holders losing confidence would have much more effect on the share price than a few new ones buying in.

Its a nice update, but does point to tight timelines now.

TDT - I think it basically says no one really knows what the market for NPI is going to be like as Indonesia and China are tightly coupled and there is no standard benchmark for NPI.

For HZM this likely means that their NPI from A1 will be in some demand for delivery away from China, but as Glen are buying it all at a price linked to the LME benchmark that's not really a HZM concern. I'd imagine Glen will be looking for a premium for the low carbon impact product, but who will be the end consumer is anyone's guess.

avocet, all that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men (people) to do nothing.

i think when a moron let's loose the dogs of bull**** we shouldn't just shrug our shoulders and let it pass, we should pick up our wits and launch them at the disingenuous half wit like missiles.

It is spelt grammar.

I am minding my own business, it is just that there is an irritating moron in the way of it. What are you even doing here anyway?

What is puzzling me is why they can't just have a grown up discussion and do it as one transaction. Its like Fidelity are adding as money comes in to a fund, maybe the Fidelity fund manager's dad is only paying them a restricted amount of pocket money.

I can even predict that the fee they are being charged per transaction is about £6.50 per trade, the 719 trades and 7148 both have £7 ish over the round number. Today's buy price is 140.35 it seems.

Good grief, give it a rest Ade.

I think the word you are half wittedly looking for is trajectory.

Are you simple enough to think that comments here have even the slightest influence on the Glencore share price? Are you actually trying to talk down one of the largest commodity companies in the world by posting with spelling and grammar mistakes in a chat room? There's dim, then there is special, then especially dim.

Strummer,

You're not looking closely enough. The sells are generally 140.0001 , anything above that is a buy, so the trades going through at 140.24 are buys. The actual spread is not the reported spread. Many days you can work out the levelling transactions, taking out the odd Bed and ISA trade.

The institution getting out is very very likely Canaccord. I am guessing they are selling down their holding for some compliance issue and have placed a 140.000+ limit on their sale with a MM. Sometime in the next 3-4 weeks they should be out even at the modest volumes, then normal share price behaviour will resume. Suggesting it is a PI is just daft, no PI has this kind of holding or influence.

Wow. Good job you let me know otherwise I may have invested here. Oh wait...

One post on HZM ever, and a zillion Random Ramping Rants on... RRR. See what I did there. Anyway you believe in Lithium but not in Nickel. Cool. Weird and Unique kind of cool. It's definitely a niche view.

It's spelt Nickel by the way.

There is an explanation, we just don't know what it is (yet). The share price hasn't behaved like this before, at least in the last decade, someone with a fair bit of clout is holding the price where it is. Why, dunno, how, dunno, for how long, dunno, and what happens when they stop, also dunno.

Thing is the mine is being built, every day is one more off the countdown to first metal. Eventually metal and revenue will start to flow

Seems like there is often a spike in the 2 - 3 weeks after results are published, there has been a slight recovery over the last week or two already. It's sitting bang on my average right now, I bought in the belief that 150-160 is more like fair value.

Theorist, we have been told about the agreement but it has not been published. Tonnage is full mine production, price is linked to LME open market price less a single digit % marketing fee (discount). The current price is subject to calendar determinations too, rather than live spot price at the instant of the invoice. I believe the price is at the mine too rather than at the Dock, meaning Glencore have to pay the transport from the mine.

18 trades so far today, the majority sells at 140.001. Low number of trades, low volume of shares traded. It does smack of there being a both a large seller (Canaccord?) and a number of buyers just about matching each other without us really seeing what's going on.

I think a lot of PI and Pro investors are waiting to see globally what happens next, Ukraine war seems to be at a (maybe temporary) stalemate, China is still sabre rattling over Taiwan, inflation is clearly not under control yet, the US is likely to go into political turmoil as the election approaches and so on. As a result there are no big moves happening on most of the market, either falls or rises, and HZM is just reflecting that wider market pause.

Where there are significant falls is in the exploration sector, junior wannabe miners are suffering pretty badly with many looking like the challenge of raising finance is beyond them given the interest rate rises and reduction in finance availability. That makes it look like HZM raised and are executing just in time. That means eventually value will out.

Meanwhile, while we wait, how about this as a HZM theme song? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UBvSNRGWIO8

Who is that aimed at contrarian? If its me then I have a portfolio, not just HZM. Thanks for your concern though, I'll take it under advisement.

Glencore RNS this morning with Q1 figures shows their Nickel production down 32% year on year, from over 30kt to just over 20kt in Q1. It's their biggest drop across their commodity portfolio.

May the fourth be with you :) , it will break £5 before then.

TDT - Yep, saw those numbers too. I am assuming that there is plenty of exploration potential to replenish the reserves, but I suspect all at progressively lower grades, the high grade easy to access stuff may already be gone. I note the article was already talking about sub 1% ore becoming viable, but viable and economic are a fine balance.

So forecasting a surplus based on increased production alone seems like an odd idea. Supply and demand profile is changing rapidly, and whilst Indonesia will no doubt take up a big part of the new demand I can't see it meeting the full forecast demand and then some.

Indonesia produced 1.6m tons (or thereabouts) in 2022 having already doubled production in 3 years. 2030 demand forecast is anywhere between 4.5 and 7.5m tons depending on whose prediction you like.

This is an interesting set of data combining several forecasts : https://knoema.com/ydolvrc/nickel-price-forecasts-long-term-2021-to-2030-data-and-charts

The current prediction keeps nickel above $20,000 a ton for the foreseeable future, although as we should all know by now the foreseeable future for nickel can be surprisingly short.