Member Info for pickedpeck

Fall seems over done but 7.5p of it is the dividend and the usual dividend tourist sell off. On the other hand if you think long term then days like this are good opportunities to buy at value.

Looks like you got your wish, just five years later. Not a great deal for holders here although the interim dividend compensates for the SHRS discount to NAV and calculation used for replacement shares.

Well obviously Parys Mountain doesn't have rain or pollution issues, someone just thought making the landscape look like the surface of Mars for 100 years would be pretty. If you think planning spoil tips, water pumping, and waste disposal won't affect AYM and NRW will not want a say on it then good luck with that.

Opening old Welsh mines deals with the same processes and bureaucrats. It was just a thought.

I wonder if it would be easier and more cost effective to just have one management team and admin between AYM and ALBA, call the newco Cambrian Mines 😁. They both appear to be in the same waiting game boat with old mines and trying to get permits / mines reopened. AYM are bound to fall foul of NRW too at some stage.

Economy of scale and all that while other is no actual mining going on.

Sorry pressed the post message too soon there. I meant to add nice win and should underpin a rise through the final dividend xdate this week (9th). You would normally expect a fall in the amount of the decent sized divided, but with this we may not.

Should underpin a decent rise as it will be nicely profitable work.

Lawrence - do you ever consider looking at your average is a distraction. It's far better in my view to make decisions based on where you are today and what you think will happen next rather than look at the decisions you took months or even years ago.

For shares you have already it's hold or sell based on whether you believe they will rise further or fall.

For cash it's whether to buy now or wait for less risk or a lower price.

Averages are about ego and whether all your decisions are good or not. I can tell you with 100% certainty that they are not all good, just like everyone else. Does knowing that help or distract?

It's hard to time if you're trading rather than buying to hold.

The support level seems to be 16p, the couple of times it has tested that it has bounced pretty well but in a news vacuum we could test it againbas people get bored and wander off. On the other hand FOMO based on the potential for an offer or a finance RNS may escalate and we rise. Either is equally probable to happen and impossible to call.

Billy - don't peak too soon 😂

I don't think you will see an RNS until the week after next at the earliest. Any price target is nonsense and based on assumptions until then.

Just to add to that, the week of the RNS volume was over 116m. Accepting a portion were day trades and some churn, it's still a big volume. Prior to the announcement PIs held probably in the region of 25% of the company, or about 65m shares, and a number of those did not sell.

To be fair Rover that list on the HZM site is dated 29th of September. It's very likely Fidelity are out as they RNSd the threshold broken. Helikon also notified a smallish sale, as a foreign entity I am not sure what the reporting requirement is for them. We don't know about the others but following 2nd October the volume churned was large, probably too large just for PIs. The three cornerstones haven't moved either to sell or buy though.

It would be interesting to have access to the register now.

Will be an interesting few weeks ahead.

Actually Contrarian, you were right on the price action before the drop, but had been wrong so many other times it ultimately didn't matter. If every day for a year you predict disaster then claiming one time you were right is a pyrrhic outcome at best. Have you ever predicted a rise?

Also you have no idea where I am up to regarding profit or loss, or what else I have invested elsewhere, or anything about my personal situation. I've never posted those details because it's my business and I don't need to either brag or whinge about it. Sure I have bought back a big interest here, too big to day trade, but don't be presumptuous about everything else.

Well done making enough for a night out in Bognor Regis though.

Sorry Contrarian, I forgot you posted your buy at 70p on the way down. How is that trade gojg for you? £700, the last of the high rollers.

I'm not posting any of my trades or how many shares I am holding or not. It's my business thank you very much.

I think what we saw on Friday was a spike on Peel Hunt buy rating plus some unfounded rumours. I think the price will have its up and down days until we see the funding RNS. The RNS may come next week, or be as much as three weeks away, but I would expect something in November.

vale did the original dfs. are you saying they got it wrong and are ******s because they disagree with you?

maybe la mancha and orion having done due diligence are ******s for putting up the money for the feasibility study, as they plainly disagree with you too. i would imagine having provided the money for that specific purpose that's what they actually wanted done with it, and maybe have a contract to that effect.

maybe even glencore are ******s for just having 18% of the shares in the company, having sold the xstrata assets to hzm. perhaps they should not have invested yet and waited for the mine to be built. i mean why bother at all if they have the off take.

you are the one with vast holes in your arguments and calling anyone a ****** that disagrees with you. i'm not bickering. i am flat out saying you are wrong, and are presenting half truths and misdirection to support your flawed argument. in your first post about vermelho you neglected to mention it's not a straight nickel mine and also will produce cobalt. you are also forgetting that it's production cost is also lowest quartile because of cheap hydropower. the cobalt and low production cost make the lower ni grades more than viable vs indonesia with no cobalt and coal powered electricity.

no one is asking you to put your hand in your pocket to fund it. mining capital companies will do due diligence and decide if its viable, oh wait, they have already done that for the pfs and funded the fs.

1.92% currently being mined at Araguaia.

It's really easy Headder. No one is factoring in Vermelho at all at the moment. If it has a business case then it might get finance, if not it won't. On the surface of it there is a return because of the low production cost with ready infrastructure, low cost clean hydro power, shallow pit mining and reasonable effective grade. That's what Vale's DFS said anyway.

Indonesia doesn't have infinite supply of 1.7% either, they are importing from the Philippines now at much lower grades.

The 46kt was Vale's assessment when they spent $300m on developing Vermelho, scrapping it in favour of Goro as it would have led to over capacity. HZM bought it for peanuts at the bottom of the cycle, even just as a straight asset sale it should be on the books at a higher value.

I'd sooner read the final DFS report rather than your negatively speculative posts to be fair, but perhaps the additional resource value is because it is a Nickel Cobalt project rather than just Nickel, with the Co production being factored in to the return as a Ni equivalent raising the effective grade and payback.

Why all the negative narrative Headder. Every post seems to be twisting facts to fit a negative agenda. I can't imagine why, the price is already under the asset value floor. What are you hoping for?

Just to quote a source for the 100kt plus...

BMO Conference presentation Feb 2023, slide 4.

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/en_20230301-bmo-conference-presentation.pdf

Totak PFS / FS of three projects 107kt p.a.

Vermelho will likely be resized down from 46kt to the 29kt for initial development to control capex.

Araguaia North does not have a current FS in development but was previously sized at 32kt p.a. By Glencore.

Araguaia South 29kt for lines 1 and 2. There is potential to add more lines to extend this further.

By the way, Glen haven't managed over 100kt for a while. 2023 YTD (Q3) 68kt FY projection ~85kt , 2022 81.6kt.

Billy,

If you really want to dream about the long term future then the ultimate estimated potential of all the current assets is 105kt p.a. production, that still gives a 35 Yr mine life against best guess of reserves. The 60kt p.a. is the relatively short term (5 year ish) target of just A1, A2 and Vermelho first line. Araguaia North, Serra do Tapa, more Araguaia South lines and so on extend that a lot.

A major buys this and they could mine that 100kt plus, or more than Glencore or Anglo American current production, and probably top 2 or 3 in world production outside Indonesia.

That's without further exploration. The Araguaia license is more or less the size of Sussex and has more exploration potential to extend reserves.

Obviously we need to compete the first line at the first mine as a gateway to all that potential. But the Ni in the ground hasn't gone anywhere, and the potential is what attracted all the blue chip backers in the first place.

Obviously none of that will happen without a deal this month, but there is a big incentive to get one done.

So £1.7m was just a made up number then?

I also am guessing the 'other' and share based bonuses go out of the window if the schedule isn't met. Share based payment will be the taxable value of anything granted and not necessarily cash value.

The 5m in options only has a value above the option price, so if the bulk granted last year were at 170p (? Anyone know the actual figure) then they are worth a CGT taxable 1p each IF the price gets to 171p, 30p each if it gets to 200p, and nothing at all with a share price of 170p and below.

That salary for a CEO is not that unreasonable. He is getting it for taking a £10m mkt cap junior explorer through bargain basement asset acquisitions, PEA, PFS, initial fund raises, DFS, complex low cost Export credit, bank debt, and equity raises, negotiating an extreme low cost power supply, a 100% off take contract, and getting a green field mine permitted and almost built in Brazil. Anyone here done that? Not exactly washing cars or walking dogs is it. What do you think he should be paid?

You're also a moron if you think for a moment that JM was at liberty to 'tip off' anyone outside of an RNS. Firstly it would be illegal, see what happened to Elon last year, secondly the board would have been controlling the message not JM, third the Nomad forced their hand on announcement before it was quantified and likely also prevented suspension, fourth the cornerstones would have had every expectation of being informed and controlling the news first. What do you expect? JM to phone and tip off every PI personally? Or just you?

Yes the schedule and mine build is compromised, the market herd baling out dumped the price and set the new value. Could it have been done better? Probably, but anyone that has run a very large and extremely complex project like this knows sh*t happens. You earn your crust by how you deal with the sh*t. Bringing in a new ops director, having an independent engineering assessment, walking the key stakeholders through the issue and forming a detailed action plan is what you would do. Jury is still out on whether that is enough to give them many choices on completion of the build.