Member Info for pickedpeck

My strategy is simple. Buy when cash is available at any price below 75p. Hold until at least February's dividend, receiving 10% ish return from dividends. The company will be listed in NY on December 11th. I don't think a rerate will be instant, it will be at least two quarters of results before US investors start to pick it up. If the results are as expected and analyst coverage is positive as a result I also expect a share price recovery to around 125p within 12 months, or 2400p as it will be then, that would be a 66% capital gain from my initial purchase price, more from today. My current average is about 73p BTW.

That makes no sense at all.

The price has dropped today by almost exactly the dividend - so far. You do know today is the xd right? It's 9.30am, a bit early to call for the CEO's head.

As posted by Gavster recently, all the actions the company has taken which would normally boost the share price have led to further falls. Buy backs, dividends, profitability, hedged stable income, whatever.

I am not being made a mug of. I got a dividend this morning which is similar to the annual dividend on most of my holdings, except here I get it every quarter. And yes, I did buy more. A lot more.

Clued,

El Nino is a major oscillating pattern of currents in the Pacific Ocean. It happens naturally approximately every 7 years, and sometimes lasts a few months up to 2 years. It causes major changes in the surface temperature of large parts of the Pacific which in turn changes weather patterns around the globe. Some areas get a lot warmer, some get colder.

In particular it has been known to disrupt the jet stream location, the current of air which massively influences the weather in Northern Europe. It generally pushes the jet stream further South meaning Northern Europe gets colder arctic air pulled down.

In North America more or less the opposite happens when there is an El Nino, the Northern states and Canada have a milder wetter winter whilst the Southern US is colder.

In past years that has meant a collapse in demand for natural gas in North America, and a simultaneous spike in demand in Europe. This year North American gas can be exported to Europe to make up for the non availability of Russian gas, softening the effect in North America of depressed pricing.

Basically gas in N America is cheap at the moment because of El Nino, whilst Europe is struggling to find supplies.

In relation to climate change it seems likely that the extra heat energy in the Pacific is going to make this El Nino very strong.

For DEC there are effects shortx medium and long term.

Short term (3 to 6 months) the depression of N American prices will make non-hedged producers really struggle. In the 2015 El Nino many producers went under.

Medium term (6 to 18 months) European demand and the ongoing lack of Russian Gas will mean prices recover quickly. DEC hedges for 2025 and beyond should be very healthy with less suppliers available to meet demand, and some cheap assets to buy up.

Longer term most governments are committed to reducing dependency on natural gas, there will be huge need to properly cap off and retire non economic wells. El Nino will mean more non economic wells in N America and DEC NexLVL business could see demand for services grow pretty fast.

CEO should be measured on business performance not the share price. If they manage to generate the £3.3Bn FCF and reduce debt in the second half then she will have earned her crust.

IMHO the turnaround here lies in the second of the corporate priorities, simplicity. A simplified business focused on core markets and offerings should be simpler for investors to understand and management to operate. If they can divest the difficult market positions and use cash generated to reduce debt then all good. Spain next, would be nice to see that sold and the money used to pay down debt.

Just to add, 2010, that 13 years ago the BBC is quoting, was in the top 10 of El Nino effects in winter. This El Nino is already showing signs it is going to be stronger and longer.

Winter is coming.

BBC News - Coldest November night in 13 years for parts of UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-67564025

Just to restate it, an El Nino winter in Europe is normally significantly colder than normal. Europe is already struggling for natural gas supplies, with industrials already making deals with US suppliers.

Natural gas will be in the headlines soon.

Weirdly dropping in the run up to the xd aswell. There is no explaining this other than the market believing the divi can't be held long term and /or fossil fuel business is no longer welcome on LSE.

Mkt cap £19bn, FY24 FCF forecast £3.3Bn.

Am I losing it or is that M&G TR1 a notification of crossing the 5% holding in a foreign company? Surely that means they have been buying while the price has been falling?

It's been a long day and I didn't get much sleep so this isn't making any sense.

I did. I had a bit in pre xd, now have a lot more. Xd usually drops the price by more than the dividend I agree, but sometimes not so hedged my bets a bit.

I have a daily ritual of kicking myself hard for not piling into RR when it was 68p. It was obvious that it's scale and revenue and it's criticality to national infrastructure would mean it wouldn't fail. But soooo many people were calling it a dog or doomed, people that had ridden it all the way down to its final support level.

VOD is paying 11% dividend. Has asset disposal options to pay down debt. No one is stopping using mobile networks soon and it's merger with Three will create organisation savings, reduce investment costs, and bring competition to the wholesale marketplace.

Just like RR if you have ridden it all the way down to here from it's previous highs then it will appear to be a dog. Buying from hear with the yield, financials, and as a recovery play may have a certain amount of pedigree, chum 😂

I had a few before xd, just more than doubled my holding.

You missed out 'huge share buy back in progress', but we know the reaction anyway. I've bought some more, I have to admit the amount I have is making me nervous that there is something I am not seeing.

Not wishing to be a doom merchant nor an optimist. But there are absolutely precedents where a company has run out of cash and equity holders have been greeted in the morning by a suspension followed by administration, followed by a phoenix company rising from the ashes with entirely new ownership, ie no PIs.

An example is African Minerals, Ticker AMI.L in which there are quite a few parallels. The biggest difference here and a possible cause for optimism is the fact HZM has not yet been suspended whereas in AMI suspension came before the director clear out. That could be a factor of there being some money left still, or an indication that the new structure will be a continuation of the old. No one on the the outside knows.

Another buyback notice. The volume of buy backs is not insignificant in comparison to normal trade volumes, a couple of hundred thousand a day on average! I wonder how long they will keep this up? Shares are obviously very cheap right now, I am sure that's already been done to death in terms of what the cost avoidance of the buyback is.

So you think they stepped down voluntarily? Let me make you an offer you can't refuse...

CEO, CFO, Chair and leading non aligned NED all pushed out. Regardless of who comes in the clear implication is that someone used their power to sack the board. No one investor has that clout, and it wasn't put to an EGM.

You could infer that this means a change of control has effectively happened, and with it being La Mancha and Glencore people moving in that they have already effectively taken over the company.

There is also mention of restructuring. What structural change could they mean? It's a pretty simple structure right now, to me the implication is that they intend to restructure equity ownership.

For La Mancha to put up enough money to get this done they would pass the 30% ownership threshold. That means a mandatory offer for the rest of the equity. By having the ability to sack the board it implies they have Glencore and Orion onboard already, so 51%. If they have already cut a deal with those two they can offer everyone no choice with whatever they offer. It would be pure speculation as to what they will offer, but they will do the minimum the regulator will allow.

it's absolutely nothing to do with training. my partner is a senior sister in an nhs itu and part time nursing lecturer at a university.

her department has ongoing critical staff shortages. the biggest problem has been staff retention, but also the ability to recruit. without nurses from 'elsewhere' her department would have to close more frequently than it does at the moment. yep, even now, with philippino, indian, spanish, and african nurses all employed there staffing is often too low to allow any new patients to be admitted to their itu. the next nearest one is 40 miles away. people die every day due to staffing issues, but our collective genius answer is to want to make the problem worse?

i'm a techie. ok, started as a data scientist and mathematician with a physics degree, but ended up as a c level exec running global teams with thousands of staff. i can tell you based on evidence and personal experience that despite offering crazy salaries and running training programs our inability to recruit and retain capable resource in the uk directly led to offshoring work to various other countries including india, the philippines, colombia and prewar ukraine. those were highly paid skilled jobs we were absolutely unable to viably fill in the uk, and the us and germany as it happens.

that last point is worth knowing. this is not a uk problem, it's a developed world problem. the same story is repeating across western europe and north america. it needs a proper grown up, non ******, pragmatic discussion on wtf we actually do about population dynamics in the context of a long term plan for the economy.

and it is still absolutely nothing to do with boats.

Go to an NHS hospital anywhere in the UK and do a head count of staff born here vs staff that have been born elsewhere and have come here since.

In reality it doesnt matter what the skill level is either. We don't have enough natively born workers entering the jobs market to fill roles either with skill or without it. That doesn't make the job need less real.

For technology based companies this has often led to off shoring work as the supply and demand for skills means local workers are very expensive compared to many other locations with similar skills. Offshoring work is far worse for our economy than employing people here who then lay UK taxes on wages and expenditure.

The boats are an emotive topic but mostly irrelevant in the scale of the numbers being discussed. It's a focus because it fits the rabble rousing agenda of a number of politicians appealing to some basic instincts. We should have a look at some data instead.

The working age population in the UK has increased by about a quarter since 1980, from about 33m then to 41.5m now.

Meanwhile the birth rate in the UK is declining by about 0.5% a year on a long term trend, and even with that decline remains one of the highest in Western Europe with only Ireland and Sweden just very marginally higher.

Based on births alone our population would be declining. In the 60s there were 18 births per 1000 people, now there are just 11 and the trend is downward. Do the maths from that. Over a generation population based only on birth would decline by about 20%

Right now we have about 1.5m unemployed people (round numbers). Since 2008 to date the unemployment rate has roughly halved from 8% to about 4%. There are currently around 950,000 job vacancies in the UK. We can argue about what those numbers mean, but they show a trend of the numbers of people available to work compared to jobs to be filled gap consistently narrowing despite ongoing levels of immigration.

The long held trope about British people not wanting to do some jobs is not true. It's just a simple calculation that there are less workers being born here and entering the jobs market than there are jobs available to be filled. That means locally born workers with an advantage in the jobs market are able to choose jobs they would prefer, avoiding things they don't want to do or are not qualified for. We can neither make enough doctors, apple pickers, nurses, or people to work in care.

The availability of those jobs is what is attracting people to come here, and the same is true for almost all of Western Europe and the US. Without immigration our jobs market, care systems, agriculture, and broader economy could not function.

Our economy is predicated on growth rather than managed contraction.

We could take several approaches to this.

1. Have a grown up discussion on how our economy works and what it means to add migrant workers to it.

2. Incentivise the local population to reproduce a lot faster.

3. Migrate to a wealthier economy with the same problem and become part of their solution!

The basic underlying problem is one where the government are not properly managing the consequences of necessary immigration by expanding public services like housing, schools, and healthcare to match the expansion of the population. As a result with services in constrained supply the race card is pulled out and the stress is blamed on a handful of brown skinned people crossing the channel, risking their lives to get here and fill jobs we need them to do.

98.5% of 245.95 is 241.37, would be lovely if they could just add a little before the end date!