Member Info for pickedpeck

These notes are likely just for me as it is an end game echo chamber, but NAV now 245.05 less 1.5% discount is still higher than the bid at 232. Still better to hold to cash convert, just had the dividend this morning too.

Tony,

The Copper industry is in a state where new mines being opened are on progressively lower grade ore bodies, all the good stuff has pretty much gone now! The same is starting to happen with Nickel, Indonesian grades are falling and new mines are looking at much lower grades. HZM stands out with Araguaia being a relatively high grade set of ore bodies.

Pretty soon the focus will have to turn to the circular economy for a lot of metals, there simply isn't enough new economically viable discoveries to be made in order to supply future demand.

Entropy is a sod.

Personally I see the US listing as one of the main reasons I have bought here. It's just a stronger investor base for any oil and gas company, in fact it's hard to see why DEC would be listed in London at all as a US based company in the oil and gas sector. It being listed here would definitely put off US investors, does anyone know why it is? Seems anomalous.

As for 20:1 consolidation, it puts us at 1440p ish today. If you only have a low number of shares I can see how it might matter marginally in a Scrip based reinvestment plan, the pesky inconvenience of dealing with actual money! More than 30 companies in the FTSE250 have a higher per unit share price though so it's not exactly abnormal. I guess it all depends on whether you have £100 or £100k invested.

I don't buy the conspiracy thing either, but when calculating a royalty or debt repayment the current price of the commodity must play a part. No one can really know what the price will be next year or the year after, or base a deal on it. We know the banks and others stress tested the original business case at $14k a ton, but now there is only $2k a ton extra to fund the additional finance which will undoubtedly be making it harder.

Its an unhappy coincidence rather than a devilish plot.

And there we are, over 700p net to anyone holding from before the xd a week or so ago. Nice ongoing rise, broker ratings for high 700s rather than 600s may be helping.

Nickel dropped through the $16.5k business case level in the last few days, currently about $16.3k with a chart that looks like a black piste. It must be weighing heavy on any funding discussions whether Royalty or debt repayment. Long term forecasts will still be much higher, but that may feel like jam tomorrow when you need cash now.

Maybe by the end of Q1 the market will have turned again, but it looks likely that it will be at least then before this gets anything like a resolution.

Merging with Three should save a bit of UK 5G capex anyway. It may be a way ahead in many markets to save on capex across the industry. Not much benefit anymore in having dedicated infrastructure at vast cost.

Its effectively the same pool of shares at the same reconciled price traded real time across both exchanges using ADRs. The two exchanges effectively act as one but transact in different currencies and different working hours. Technically it may be a secondary listing rather than a dual listing but the basics are the same.

This article explains it better than reposting it all here:

https://www.marketbeat.com/financial-terms/dual-listing-what-you-need-to-know/

Dalesflyer, insight like that is what we are all here for. If only all posters were like you, it would save a lot of time on reading all those balance sheets and reports.

Seriously, read your posting history back. Have you nothing at all to be cheerful about? There must be something other than the constant stream of misery you've posted. I realise a lot of the dales are in Yorkshire and therefore everything else is bloody rubbish, but even so get a grip man.

Dual listing can take a bit of digesting. Not only stock price variation in trading hours but ongoing currency fluctuation effectively constantly changes prices. In reality prices are currency corrected and rationalised At respective opens and closes, so London may open at NYSE close price corrected for currency, NYSE will open at the LSE current price, NYSE will continue to vary price after LSE closes.

Whikstbthe markets are both open the exchange computers constantly correct the prices through arbitrage and currency changes.

Sorry, citigroup revised their target from 79 to 78... Nuanced doesn't even begin to cover it.

Citigroup note for 79p target. It's hilarious how inaccurate broker notes are. I think I should start a Web site service that scores their predictions!

Look at the broker coverage here it's so wide of the mark it's pointless.

Still 79p from here is nearly a 15% gain... Ooo... Exciting. Not.

I like the Deutsche note from March better. I wonder if they ever have to explain why they were so wrong to anyone ever.

Come to think of it I don't recall a broker note ever predicting a fall below the current level. Anyone else?

What manufactured rise? Not exactly worth the trouble for the scale of rises there have been here in the last 6 months. It would be a potentially believable story if the pe wasn't 1 point something and yield 20%, or the price had risen sharply to 100p plus post the previous announcement of not going to the US.

Seems like it takes dynamite to move the share price.

Those results were excellent. Debt down, profits up, pe 4 point something and a 9% yield. And still the price hovers in the 45-49p band.

Contrarian,

I know facts and your posts are only very loosely connected. It is something you have repeated over and over that the directors didn't buy, but you weren't here in 2018.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/HZM/directorpdmr-shareholding-k8o3rl7x7v2aozw.html

JM bought on the open market, 720,000 shares in that link. Retter and non execs also bought around the same time at lower levels. Until recently that one purchase was worth more than a million quid, now it's not. I think his total holding is near 2m shares but can't remember where I saw it. It's certainly not zero. Certainly more than you have ever held anyway.

Options are a key part of exec remuneration, they tie you in aswell as reward you should the company succeed. Since 2018 JM was given lots of options which are conditional on share price success now also effectively worthless. In the same circumstances I wouldn't have bought more shares either, if it worked the options would have been more than enough return.

All you have ever risked is a few quid here and there. This is JM's life work, effectively his entire career. Starting before the first discovery, prospecting for gold through 15 years of work. Right now without a deal it all comes to nothing. Sure he has collected salary who wouldn't if it was offered. He didn't set it, the board did and you can't blame him for taking it. Some have called him a snake. I don't get that impression at all, he's a straight up bloke that's done his best to make this work and nearly did. Still might in fact although the odds look slimmer by the day.

Stop with all the personal attacks. There is no need. A friend, a fellow investor, a poster here, recently took his own life over how this has turned out. I can't help but think all the bile posted here added to his decision. This isn't funny, it never was. Don't make it worse for fun.

One more interesting bit on this that kind of proves the point is this piece in the FT

https://www.ft.com/content/a3022d0c-dec9-453c-bcba-296a95775c0b

Arcelor Mittal looking for gas supplies outside Europe as prices in EU rise sharply again, with the US the most likely source.

If a big company like that is looking ahead of the winter then it could be we see another energy spike in Europe whilst US stocks may be under utilised.

Obviously DEC hedged to the gills, but may create a positive halo effect to coincide with the US listing.

And another thing...

Wtd is going on with all the post close trades? Huge UT and then a load of dribs and drabs for 2 hours after close. What's going on? Surely can't take the auction that long to close and with such tiny trades?

As a mad theory and knowing what numbwits algotrade programmers can be, I suspect it's nothing to do with individuals, it is bots designed to trade on a wider sector average basis. Lazy gits who programmed the bots just mark down everything in oil and gas based on the oil price movement. Efficient market my ass.

Obviously shouldn't be following either given the hedge percentage. The I guess we all know the market is not rational!

We are back in the 60s, and almost back to 20% yield. I'll be buying more.