Member Info for pickedpeck

Well, it may also be to do with xd date... Special dividend payable for shareholders on the register this morning 16th, record date 17th

'Lancashire’s Board of Directors has declared a special dividend of $0.50 per common share (approximately £0.41 per common share at the current exchange rate), which will result in an aggregate payment of approximately $119 million. The dividend will be paid in Pounds Sterling on 15 December 2023 (the “Dividend Payment Date”) to shareholders of record on 17 November 2023 (the “Record Date”) using the £ / $ spot market exchange rate at 12 noon London time on the Record Date. Shareholders interested in participating in the dividend reinvestment plan (“DRIP”), or other services including international payment, are encouraged to contact the Group’s registrars, Link Asset Services, for more details.'

I wonder why their Nomad lets them get away with this, surely the Private Ltd Co release constitutes inside information as defined in AIM rules. Weird.

Good to see continued steady progress, I wonder if that chunky buy back announcement was the last of the purchases or if there is more still to come?

Glencore market cap has risen by more than ten times the funding gap so far today. They will want the asset, it's just a question of how do they get it.

The company could be sold in a month. The only reason to do it quickly would be continuity, ie avoiding lay off and restart costs. An administrator would need a minimal care and maintenance plan to preserve the asset value, once all the contractors leave it will be a mess trying to get them back.

The cornerstones and debt holders will not want this in administration, value drops very sharply if that happens.

Contrarian. Seriously give it a rest. Taking joy in others losses is unhealthy and unpleasant, and having empathy and pity is more grown up behaviour in a civilised society. Maybe that's something we are taught as children that you missed out on, I'm sorry your childhood created such an urge to gloat and boast.

If you're not out yet then the best last hope right now is a bid. Yesterday's RNS says a few things

1. We are running out of money in a month.

2. It's still a valuable asset with a lot of money spent and nearly ready to go

3. Diligence is not complete and is proceeding at a leisurely pace not matched by point 1.

4. Come and buy us, bargains to be had.

Best ending here for anyone still in is a bid for the company. Right now O and LM would take an offer to recover pennies on the pound rather than be wiped out. Glen would find it cheapest, Vale would be most ironic, Anglo American might like a go too.

There may be a bid. Or more than one. Or none at all. It is the best last hope though.

Revenue is more related to funds under management than the number of transactions. App platforms and websites can be updated, but things like SIPPs tend to be sticky.

Nearly got your 700, in reach now.

I think this will end in an asset sale. The implication is that after initial diligence the cornerstones and the banks have not been able to quickly agree a finance package that works.

Reducing to minimum activity will keep the asset valuable, but this seems now to be all about a sale. I am out, at least for now.

PS - I think we all love to try and figure out how this is going to pan out. I think the gentleman doth protest too much.

TDT,

304 is no substitute for 316, it corrodes over time in even mild environments and doesn't have the same physical properties either. Sure it can be used in some places, but so can mild steel. Anything facing any kind of even mildly hostile environment needs high nickel content.

I think in old money (pre inflationary burst) the price will settle around $20k a ton, that's probably $25k in 2024 dollars. That level won't suppress demand but will make the more marginal projects harder.

The argument for multiple battery types is a bit moot. I can't see one technology dominating in the same way that a large diesel engine has different properties to a three cylinder one litre petrol engine yet both are still selling. You want an executive car with maximum range and performance, Ni 90, you want a car that costs £15k, LFP. Mid range is up for grabs for the next few years, but by 2030 it will all be about solid state batteries anyway.

Nickel has fairly unique properties in transition metals and pure crystals have a very high electron density and even charge distribution. Solid state batteries are a bit of a wildcard, but even there the name of the game is charge density and Ni Cathodes seem to be the way Toyota and some others are going. The car market is so large it's hard to see it evolve quickly to one homegenous type. A Tesla Model X is not going to have the same battery needs or design as a low cost Chinese city car.

Mr Turbot...

I admit the share trades here are a mystery to me. 3 buys all day, 12 sells, volume almost even either way. Yet there is enough energy here for 28 message board posts so far. That's about 10 messages per share trade purchase. Compared to that fellow mining minnow Glencore there are ten times as many message board posts with 0.2% of the number of trades.

With a market cap of £7m ish how much does everyone have invested here? I've inched up my holding several times and now have a lot more than is probably sensible!

TDT

The battery debate is pretty straightforward cost vs quality. Lower cost lower electron density cathode batteries won't choose nickel. Where overall capacity and performance vs weight is important nickel will get chosen. I don't think it will be an A vs B type discussion, the market will be more analogous to petrol and diesel engines. Room for more than one type, and in a constrained market that will be enough to contribute to Ni demand.

How relevant that all is to HZM at the moment is debatable. Glencore are going to be marketing high % Ferronickel to stainless consumers from Araguaia. Drivers are construction, engineering, renewable power, nuclear and precision engineering. It's a good question which smelters will be using FeNi from Brazil, almost certainly not Chinese.

So what's happening to FeNi prices? You absolutely have to think Big Shot is Behind this price drop. Tsingshan control so much production via Indonesia that you have to suspect the current approach of flooding the market may be the play Big Shot wanted to make last year but mistimed it. The strategy is a fairly blatant attempt at creating a monopoly and boosting future prices by causing projects to get shut down due to marginal economics. Indonesia will play ball by creating the subsequent crunch with export duties, esg requirements etc to drive prices back up next year.

Excluding the current need for additional capital HZM will be still a lowest quartile cost base producer and thus able to withstand a market flood and should be around to benefit from the very sharp subsequent crunch. Analysts have a tendency to predict what just happened, I'll make a prediction now that by the end of 2024 the price will be back above $25k per ton, and stay there.

Shares are less than a tenth of a penny each. Hardly a stretch to buy a few more if you believe they will be worth more in future. Ten for a penny, a thousand for a pound, come on...

19 message board posts, 5 trades so far today. It's not hard to understand why the price doesn't move if people committed enough to spend time on a message board are not committed enough to buy on incrementally positive news.

What would make you buy more? I am assuming some might buy before production actually starts in however many years time.

So how do you explain the time you waste here? Have you got to 1,000 posts on HZM yet? Each to their own, why can't you see that and accept it?

It would have been a better announcement if they had included some indication of AVRS financials in terms of expected revenue, P&L, assets etc rather than just the purchase cost.

I agree they do look a good fit, but what's it actually worth?

Horizonte share major shareholders list updated from the register on their website now, dated 31st October. Fidelity as we suspected are out, some other really minor shifts. HL and ii will be PIs obviously.

Shareholder Number of shares % of issued capital

La Mancha : 62,297,182 , 23.09%

Glencore : 47,871,805 , 17.74%

Orion Resource Partners : 28,292,291 , 10.49%

Helikon Investments : 23,771,706 , 8.81%*

Hargreaves Lansdowne, stockbrokers (EO) : 12,917,689 , 4.79%

Interactive Investor (EO): 11,409,461 , 4.23%

Condire Investors: 8,891,404 , 3.30%

azValor Asset Management : 8,638,552 , 3.20%

So could be the last trading day before mid November finance, Monday is probably the earliest possible date for any announcement.

However I think it is much more likely to be further away. I have a feeling that it will be two weeks rathe than one, I think we may see an announcement Monday 27th.

The big question is will FOMO kick in harder than impatience before then? Is it ok to be out when the finance RNS lands? Looks like the transaction volume has dropped off now, with a few of the impatient letting the price drift slightly.