Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
So still no news on the drilling (how deep are we planning to go?) and no announcement on 2023 strategy (promised for January). Share price inevitably drifting lower. HE1 just got rid of their CEO; isn't it about time KAV followed suit.
Cardinal Mazarin said "ask not if a general is skilful bur rather is he lucky" (often misattributed to Napolean). Unfortunately BT has shown neither skill nor luck.
BT has often stated that the KCB offered KAV its best chance of a discovery. Presumably PL082 was drilled first as it was one of the most promising licences. The failure, so far, to discover copper at the expected depth is a major concern. CSAMT may be great technology but it cannot find a discovery where none exists.
I'm a LTH and very much under water with KAV (luckily my lithium investments are compensating for the losses). I'll continue to hold until B1 is drilled but I am losing confidence in any meaningful discovery.
GLA
@pekingduck
Actually KOD has 39% of Bougouni. You forgot that the Mali government will have a 10% stake and Hainan has 51%.
The news, this week, from ALL and KOD will ignite interest in African lithium miners/explorers and is likely to benefit ATM. Lots of news due from ATM this quarter.
@Bankrupty
I thought ALL still retained 50% in Ricca but you may be correct. The IRR RNS's don't mention the Ricca shareholdings post-merger. I would have thought that IRR (now ALL) would have retained a healthy stake in Ricca in return for the gold licences and A$7m start-up capital. There is nothing on shareholdings on the Ricca website, but the two companies have an identical BoD (Crow, Herbert, Kolff and Harsas).
Like many on here I hold Ricca shares from the IRR demerger. Firering (FRG) are on my watchlist although I don't hold any shares.
FRG sp has doubled over the past few weeks after it was announced that Ricca was funding the advancement of FRG's Apex and Alliance licences in Cote D'Ivoire up to $18.6m. Ricca will buy-in up to 50% of the resource. The Apex licence has lithium and tantalum. Assay results from recent drilling are due this quarter. The RNS also states that Ricca will further fund the project if the MRE surpasses 20mt lithium @ 1%.
I had not realised thar Ricca were diversifying into lithium as it was originally set up as a gold explorer. Ricca plans an IPO in H1 2023, which will presumably fund the Firering project. It will be interesting to see the FRG assays as ALL will have an involvement through its stake in Ricca (50%?).
Anyone following POW will be aware of the delays in their spin-offs. GMR (Nevada) was due in Q2, FDR (Patterson) and NBGC (Victoria were due in Q3. First Class Metals did go ahead but POW had already swapped their stake for shares in the new company. The FCM IPO had no noticeable effect on POW's sp.
The Capital Market is in a complete mess and this is an awful time to be looking to raise capital through an IPO, especially on a non-mainstream exchange.
Last month, in an interview, BT said that the Kanye buy-out had not been completed. In the absence of any further news, I assume that this is still the case. He also said that KAV proposed to put the LVR licences into Kanye, presumably once the buy-out is completed.
At the same time, Ben gave some very optimistic figures on drill rates for the KCB (80m per day RC, 40 metres per day DD). So even using diamond drill, we should be at TD on the first hole this weekend. We should definitely be hearing of progress early next week.
GLA
We are 24-30 months away from production. Upgraded MRE may lift the sp temporarily, but it is likely a year or so before we see consistent rises. In the current macro-economic climate, pi's know they can sell now and buy back in next year at little risk. I've been in since IRR days, so I am sticking around for the long haul.
I assume that drilling will not commence until the Kanye deal has been finalised. In the webinar, Ben also said that the LVR licences would be transferred to Kanye. As one of the drill targets (PL082) is held within the LVR JV, I'm wondering if this is also going to further delay drilling.
Ben has not mentioned what the delay is in finalising the Kanye deal. All these delays are pushing drilling into the rainy season. In the Proactive interview last week, Ben was asked about the rainy season. He replied that the rains were in December and January and that drilling would stop anyway over the Christmas/New Year period. Ben was being somewhat disingenuous as the rainy season in Botswana, in as much as it can be predicted, runs from November to March. When I was up in Chobe in 2000, the rains actually commenced in late September.
I am sure that it is possible to conduct a drilling campaign in the wet season, but it is not something explorers would normally choose to do. In the run up to the rains, temperatures in the Kalahari can exceed 45C. Couple this with high humidity and the peak period for malaria. I can personally attest to the fact that taking prophylactics is no guarantee against getting malaria. It is not without reason that the locals refer to this time of the year as the 'suicide season'.
No mention of an IPO on Kanye, but the fact that they are moving the JV licences into Kanye suggests (to me at least) that a spin-off will come at some point. BT also mentioned that the Kanye deal (with POW presumably) had not yet been 'finalised', which I imagine might delay drilling.
I watched the webinar. There was more detail on the Kanye targets. BT also said that the LV licences would be taken into Kanye, so Kanye will be all the KCB licences plus Ditau.
BT was as bullish as ever and said that they had identified the first three targets and that KCB will be drilled this year BUT they had not yet decided whether diamond or RC drilling. No mention of drilling the B1 conductor in KSZ.
IMO with the uncertainty over the type of drilling; no drilling contractor yet appointed; and the rainy season coming to NW Botswana in November I suspect timescales are likely to slip into 2023.
Feel a bit underwhelmed. GLA
Another diappointing RNS today and no surprise that the sp has dropped.
I am a LTH and KAV is my second largest investment. I do approve of the use of modern technology to identify targets but I am concerned whether we will see a drilling campaign in either the KSZ or KCB this year (which is supposed to be the year of discovery).
With regards to the GRS, do we know if Mindea have a suitable rig? I an oil and gas rig is required, then that will take months to organise. A lot of drilling supplies (e.g. casings) are on very long lead times. Does KAV have the funds for this?
It will be easy to organise an RC rig for the KCB but the clock is ticking. The rainy season starts in November. Botswana has a fantastic main road network but a lot of the gravel roads are the notorious 'black cotton'. The rains in Botswana start in November and KAV have not told us if this will impact the drilling campaign.
It is obvious that BT is playing his cards close to his chest. Still no sign of the B1 and Ditau assays even though other explorers are saying the logjam is easing.
Sorry for the rant. I'm here for the long haul. GLA
I am surprised (and disappointed) at the timing. Surely it would have made more sense to raise the money back in November when it was announced the start of work on the FS. The drilling could then have gone on in parallel with the other activities. I suspect that today's news will mean a delay to the FS which was scheduled for round about now (i.e. 6 months from November).
I wonder if the recent rise has anything to do with the forthcoming spin-offs. PJ has said that both GMR and FCM are due for spin-off in Q2. Suspect we should hear something on these in the near future.
The only other things due in Q2 are the appointment of a drilling contractor for FDR and an update on the Hanetti drilling..
Interesting news re Sandfire. Ben is on record as saying that the KCB offers KAV's best chance of a major discovery.
A bit odd that we have been concentrating on KSZ and Ditau (and were prepared to prioritise Molopo if the deal had been accepted). It would be nice to get some information on our plans for KCB.
Just look at the comparisons with CORE (ASX:CXO):
Resource ALL 30mt (Target 50mt); CXO (9.8mt (Target 16.2mt)
Output ALL 300kt p/a; CXO 173kt p/a
LOM ALL 12yrs (Target 20); CXO 8 yrs (Target 10)
Mcap ALL £335m; CXO £1.33b
Core will be in production by the end of this year. Its sp will have a premium as it is in a Tier 1 jurisdiction and its Finnis mine is only an hour from Darwin. On the other hand ALL has significantly more resource.
This year there are three events that could see a re-rating of ALL:
June - PFS
July/August - ASX listing
Q3? - MRE update from current drilling programme
GLA
Interesting interview.
ALL is often compared to CORE (I recall Victor talking about the comparison). ALL has similar resource level to CORE, but CORE are about a year further advanced. CORE has a market cap roughly FIVE TIMES that of ALL. On that basis we could be looking at a £3 sp come Q1 2024 even without the expected MRE upgrade. GLA
Cheers @bankrupty, great watch.
I hadn't realised that lithium hydroxide gave longer battery range (as opposed to lithium produced from brine).
Lots to look forward to this year including the PFS (June) and results from current drilling campaign (Q3?). The PLL CEO was pretty confident of increases in MRE and LOM.
It will also be interesting to see the results of soil sampling and airborne survey in the Cape Coast licence. A listing on ASX would also be a positive.
I've been in IRR/ALL since the sp was 8p and I'm not looking to sell before production (Q1 24). Back in January, I set targets for 70p by the end of the year and £1.20 by the time it goes into production. This is now looking a tad pessimistic.
GLA
The biggest holding in my portfolio having first bought IRR shares at 8p. Since topped up multiple times with an average of 20p. My target is 70p by the end of 2022 and expect further upward pressure on the sp when the PFS is published. DYOR
GLA