Member Info for picardy9

Anyone following POW will be aware of the delays in their spin-offs. GMR (Nevada) was due in Q2, FDR (Patterson) and NBGC (Victoria were due in Q3. First Class Metals did go ahead but POW had already swapped their stake for shares in the new company. The FCM IPO had no noticeable effect on POW's sp.

The Capital Market is in a complete mess and this is an awful time to be looking to raise capital through an IPO, especially on a non-mainstream exchange.

Last month, in an interview, BT said that the Kanye buy-out had not been completed. In the absence of any further news, I assume that this is still the case. He also said that KAV proposed to put the LVR licences into Kanye, presumably once the buy-out is completed.

At the same time, Ben gave some very optimistic figures on drill rates for the KCB (80m per day RC, 40 metres per day DD). So even using diamond drill, we should be at TD on the first hole this weekend. We should definitely be hearing of progress early next week.

GLA

We are 24-30 months away from production. Upgraded MRE may lift the sp temporarily, but it is likely a year or so before we see consistent rises. In the current macro-economic climate, pi's know they can sell now and buy back in next year at little risk. I've been in since IRR days, so I am sticking around for the long haul.

I assume that drilling will not commence until the Kanye deal has been finalised. In the webinar, Ben also said that the LVR licences would be transferred to Kanye. As one of the drill targets (PL082) is held within the LVR JV, I'm wondering if this is also going to further delay drilling.

Ben has not mentioned what the delay is in finalising the Kanye deal. All these delays are pushing drilling into the rainy season. In the Proactive interview last week, Ben was asked about the rainy season. He replied that the rains were in December and January and that drilling would stop anyway over the Christmas/New Year period. Ben was being somewhat disingenuous as the rainy season in Botswana, in as much as it can be predicted, runs from November to March. When I was up in Chobe in 2000, the rains actually commenced in late September.

I am sure that it is possible to conduct a drilling campaign in the wet season, but it is not something explorers would normally choose to do. In the run up to the rains, temperatures in the Kalahari can exceed 45C. Couple this with high humidity and the peak period for malaria. I can personally attest to the fact that taking prophylactics is no guarantee against getting malaria. It is not without reason that the locals refer to this time of the year as the 'suicide season'.

No mention of an IPO on Kanye, but the fact that they are moving the JV licences into Kanye suggests (to me at least) that a spin-off will come at some point. BT also mentioned that the Kanye deal (with POW presumably) had not yet been 'finalised', which I imagine might delay drilling.

I watched the webinar. There was more detail on the Kanye targets. BT also said that the LV licences would be taken into Kanye, so Kanye will be all the KCB licences plus Ditau.

BT was as bullish as ever and said that they had identified the first three targets and that KCB will be drilled this year BUT they had not yet decided whether diamond or RC drilling. No mention of drilling the B1 conductor in KSZ.

IMO with the uncertainty over the type of drilling; no drilling contractor yet appointed; and the rainy season coming to NW Botswana in November I suspect timescales are likely to slip into 2023.

Feel a bit underwhelmed. GLA

Another diappointing RNS today and no surprise that the sp has dropped.

I am a LTH and KAV is my second largest investment. I do approve of the use of modern technology to identify targets but I am concerned whether we will see a drilling campaign in either the KSZ or KCB this year (which is supposed to be the year of discovery).

With regards to the GRS, do we know if Mindea have a suitable rig? I an oil and gas rig is required, then that will take months to organise. A lot of drilling supplies (e.g. casings) are on very long lead times. Does KAV have the funds for this?

It will be easy to organise an RC rig for the KCB but the clock is ticking. The rainy season starts in November. Botswana has a fantastic main road network but a lot of the gravel roads are the notorious 'black cotton'. The rains in Botswana start in November and KAV have not told us if this will impact the drilling campaign.

It is obvious that BT is playing his cards close to his chest. Still no sign of the B1 and Ditau assays even though other explorers are saying the logjam is easing.

Sorry for the rant. I'm here for the long haul. GLA

I am surprised (and disappointed) at the timing. Surely it would have made more sense to raise the money back in November when it was announced the start of work on the FS. The drilling could then have gone on in parallel with the other activities. I suspect that today's news will mean a delay to the FS which was scheduled for round about now (i.e. 6 months from November).

I wonder if the recent rise has anything to do with the forthcoming spin-offs. PJ has said that both GMR and FCM are due for spin-off in Q2. Suspect we should hear something on these in the near future.

The only other things due in Q2 are the appointment of a drilling contractor for FDR and an update on the Hanetti drilling..

Interesting news re Sandfire. Ben is on record as saying that the KCB offers KAV's best chance of a major discovery.

A bit odd that we have been concentrating on KSZ and Ditau (and were prepared to prioritise Molopo if the deal had been accepted). It would be nice to get some information on our plans for KCB.

Just look at the comparisons with CORE (ASX:CXO):

Resource ALL 30mt (Target 50mt); CXO (9.8mt (Target 16.2mt)
Output ALL 300kt p/a; CXO 173kt p/a
LOM ALL 12yrs (Target 20); CXO 8 yrs (Target 10)
Mcap ALL £335m; CXO £1.33b

Core will be in production by the end of this year. Its sp will have a premium as it is in a Tier 1 jurisdiction and its Finnis mine is only an hour from Darwin. On the other hand ALL has significantly more resource.

This year there are three events that could see a re-rating of ALL:
June - PFS
July/August - ASX listing
Q3? - MRE update from current drilling programme
GLA

Interesting interview.

ALL is often compared to CORE (I recall Victor talking about the comparison). ALL has similar resource level to CORE, but CORE are about a year further advanced. CORE has a market cap roughly FIVE TIMES that of ALL. On that basis we could be looking at a £3 sp come Q1 2024 even without the expected MRE upgrade. GLA

Cheers @bankrupty, great watch.

I hadn't realised that lithium hydroxide gave longer battery range (as opposed to lithium produced from brine).

Lots to look forward to this year including the PFS (June) and results from current drilling campaign (Q3?). The PLL CEO was pretty confident of increases in MRE and LOM.

It will also be interesting to see the results of soil sampling and airborne survey in the Cape Coast licence. A listing on ASX would also be a positive.

I've been in IRR/ALL since the sp was 8p and I'm not looking to sell before production (Q1 24). Back in January, I set targets for 70p by the end of the year and £1.20 by the time it goes into production. This is now looking a tad pessimistic.

GLA

The biggest holding in my portfolio having first bought IRR shares at 8p. Since topped up multiple times with an average of 20p. My target is 70p by the end of 2022 and expect further upward pressure on the sp when the PFS is published. DYOR
GLA

In the words of Senator Hiram Warren Johnson "The first casualty of War is Truth".

Hi HappyDazes
I'm really jealous. It has been a few years since I was last in the Serengeti. I was due to visiting the central Kalahari next month to witness the calving (springbok, zebra, gemsbok) but had to postpone the trip as our Aussie guide is stuck in Western Australia.

If KAV were deliberately delaying news (good or bad) to ensure the most advantageous terms for the Molopo Farm deal then I think it would be open to legal challenge from the vendors.

IMO the delay is more likely due to some major problems with the drilling. Perhaps, waiting for repairs or spare parts. I can't understand why KAV would not RNS this but no doubt Ben has his reasons.

Totally agree AJ

I'm as impatient as the next investor but I really hope that BA plays the long game here. Lithium prices are only going one way. IMO BCN investors were shafted by their BOD and Ganfeng and I wouldn't want the same to happen here. We have 6 gold assets across two jurisdictions. A gold sin-off could easily have a market cap of £15m.

ALL (through Piedmont) has funding to production and its market cap is now 5 TIMES that of KOD. At present any JVs would likely be with the Chinese (Piedmont are fully committed in South Carolina, Quebec and Ghana) but perhaps we could investigate getting funding directly through EV and battery companies.

Any takeover of Kodal would likely undervalue the gold assets. I wonder if Kodal is thinking of following IRR in spinning off the gold assets. Hasn't harmed IRR (now ALL) as their sp has doubled in a few months.

We must be overdue an update on the 6 gold projects. At the least, there should be a note about re-commencing drilling at Nielle.

IMO there will not be any announcements on Bougouni until the Feasibility Study is completed. According to the November RNS, this was going to take 6 months to produce (May?).

There was a broker's note for POW yesterday which explained the potential benefits to POW (and by inference KAV) from spin-offs. Interestingly, they did not list Kanye for an IPO in 2022; POW have four other spin-offs that are likely to go through sooner.

With regards existing shareholders being able tp participate in IPOs, Paul Johnson (CEO of POW) has stated that it is his intention to open up IPOs to existing shareholders. Not sure if BT agrees but the two of them are pretty close.