Member Info for phoenixchi

If the market throws a wobbly on these results it makes itself look more like a casino than ever. No M&A or dividend action announced but the figures look very good. Fingers crossed that we will see a positive reaction this morning.

I didn't mean that post to come out twice, BTW...

I've chosen this post to reply to but it could have been most of the recent other ones. Honestly, i cannot believe much of what I read on here. A lot of posters make it sound like a big hike in the share price is like flicking a switch! Some can't sleep and some are as nervous as hell. What is that about? If you desire that kind of excitement and quick profit from an investment, back horses instead. One or two experienced posters believe we will see a big announcement tomorrow, while a smaller number think the results will be a damp squib. Yes, in its former guise of OPAY we did see the big leap when Skrill was announced but will lightening strike twice? On the other side of the coin, their last trading update said they were trading above expectations. Hence, I doubt the ful year figures will be a damp squib. That said, the market now has such high expectations they may well regard anything as disappointing. So, who can tell? But investing in shares is not backing horses and many PAYS punters here need to calm down a bit. I hope there Is something special tomorrow morning but I wil not be losing sleep waiting for it. This, I'm afraid, is what happens in a bull market. Too many people become involved looking for fast money. In this case I hope they are rewarded but let me repeat the below YET AGAIN.... The stock market is a vechile for transferring money from the impatient to the patient!!!!

I've chosen this post to reply to but it could have been most of the recent other ones. Honestly, i cannot believe much of what I read on here. A lot of posters make it sound like a big hike in the share price is like flicking a switch! Some can't sleep and some are as nervous as hell. What is that about? If you desire that kind of excitement and quick profit from an investment, back horses instead. One or two experienced posters believe we will see a big announcement tomorrow, while a smaller number think the results will be a damp squib. Yes, in its former guise of OPAY we did see the big leap when Skrill was announced but will lightening strike twice? On the other side of the coin, their last trading update said they were trading above expectations. Hence, I doubt the ful year figures will be a damp squib. That said, the market now has such high expectations they may well regard anything as disappointing. So, who can tell? But investing in shares is not backing horses and many PAYS punters here need to calm down a bit. I hope there Is something special tomorrow morning but I wil not be losing sleep waiting for it. This, I'm afraid, is what happens in a bull market. Too many people become involved looking for fast money. In this case I hope they are rewarded but let me repeat the below YET AGAIN.... The stock market is a vechile for transferring money from the impatient to the patient!!!!

I think you are right, spending 100 million in a buy back would be odd, and a strange way to spend company money, if your profit figures were looking disappointing. But the level of speculation on here about where PAYS are going is beginning to get a little out of hand. I have a great deal of respect for Wolfhound and I hope his predictions about M&A activity are spot on because I am in to PAYS for 26k at an average price well beneath today's SP. Yet, the more we all speculate on here, surely the greater the chances of a dip come the 7th if the results are only thought to be 'as expected' and / or no M&A activity is announced? Wolfhound, is your expectation of M&A based just on charting? If so, could not the resemblance to prior the Skrill announcement just be a coincidence? Now, let me say it again. I've been in and out of PAYS since the OPAY days and a price of under 90p. It has been the best share I have ever had in 30 years of playing the markets. It also continues to give and give, even offering the chance to top up back in December on the shorting day. I never expect to pick such a brilliant share again and I would love it to keep on paying off, but I now believe a bit too much is expected by new buyers of this stock and when results don't seem as startling as they used to be, there is a fair bit of baling out. Hence, a rapid and big hike next week will probably need a big announcement to provoke it. Then there are the shorters. Again. Wolfhound gives the best read on where we stand with them. Yet, their possiblebackground prescience still bothers me. Hence, let's show some caution on here now and wait patiently for the ever-closer results day. But before we do, let me contradict my post a bit by offering this as a possible piece of good news next week. Perhaps, instead of M&A activity, PAYS are to announce a policy of paying dividends? That surely, would be welcomed by the markets, providing their figures add up, of course. Doubtful the BOD would get such figures wrong, though! We shall see very soon.

Anyone know why this took a hit today? Was it profit taking after recent rises or, as I fear, had word leaked out that the exclusive negotiations about SMP part selling their Nine Elms investment have broken down? It was odd today because the SP leapt 7.80p in very, very early trading. Figures from that early in the day can be unreliable but the reversal that came pretty soon afterwards has made me think that news has leaked but wasn't fully grasped early on. I hope I'm wrong because this share is very under valued and with a reduction in Nine Elms liabilities it should leap forward. We shall see.

I hope I'm wrong but I doubt this 'big announcement' will be any corporate news. Having looked at the Twitter feeds for Skrill and Neteller, I'd bet that this will simply be some new way that Skrill and Netleller can be used to make payments. Will such an announcement push the SP up? Well, if Skrill or Neteeler have signed some deal which would enable their respective payment methods to be used in a huge amount more places it might but personally I doubt it. Sadly, this is a drawback to online forums. People become excited about nothing. If PAYS was announcing anything corporate wise, I doubt they would use Skrill or Netller to do it. I hope I'm wrong and we see a big jump some point tomorrow but I am not holding my breath in this instance.

Should read 'are not checking', not 'we checking' Preemptive text is a curse!!!!

Wolf....this is most definitely having a go at you. You have just become the conduit! I have been looking on forums for other shares tonight and on three of the five I have looked at, people are commonly using the word loosing, or loose, when they mean losing or lose!!!!! Either it s a bad drop in spelling standards, or pre-text is running wild and not enough we checking what they type. To lose is to be defeated, or not have something you once had. Loose means NOT TIGHT. Come on guys and gals, spelling errors are one thing but using completely the wrong word is another....

I agree. Just like horse racing. Value is entirely subjective because the market is what the current value is at any one time. Different from cards, or roulette, where the odds are fixed. But, of course, the more investors who believe a share is cheap (IE their perception is that it is 'value') the more buyers this should produce and thus, hopefully, exceed demand until the price rises.

While I agree completely with recent posts over the positive side of the one, the overhang of another shorting attack still bothers me. But, having given it some further thought, I wonder what other regular posters and long term holders like me, think about the following? Obviously any outfit looking to short a company would want to do so with as much scope as possible for the SP to fall. Hence, if there is a possibility of M&A news with PAYS, bringing with it a hike in the SP, would it not make sense for any shorters to delay their attack until any possible news emerges? Through doing so they could then attack from a higher price position and thus have more to gain from a fall. Of course, through doing so they increase their risk because the SP then has more upside. But it seems to me that these professional shorting outfits are very much prepared to gamble and tend to really go for broke rather than be happy with medium to good gains. Now, if my idea here is correct, and it is only an if, does that, mean any possible further shorting attack is more likely to come close to results day, or news of a M&A, comes out? If it does, it would be good to see the SP here start to motor northwards on the rumour of an M&A. In that way, 'buy on the rumour and sell on the news' would be even more applicable! Naturally, this is all speculation on my part but, let's be fair, most of the chat forums on this site are about speculation of a SP move one way or the other. Personally, I am not convinced that is always healthy because it raises hopes and can lead to disappointment if there is no news but there you go...

I agree about being nervous over the shorts at results time. I've said it more than once but the market has come to expect so much with this outfit that even a good update seems to mildly disappoint in recent months. But if we did suffer another shorting attach, would not the large tank of Paysafe money still to be put into the buyback shore us up? If we assume that a lot of the shorters from last time did not cut and run during the rise back to over the pre-short levels, then a further attwck would expose them even more. As far a I can see, if we had a further shorting attack the squeeze to take profits would fly the SP back up again. However, I am currently investigating the best way to fake a covering position for results day, just in case!

The panic reaction to BT has not helped here but Telecomms have not been a market favourite for a few weeks now. I traded VOD from £2.02 to £2.15 recently but had to sit and suffer down to £1.85 ish first. This was becaus I thought there was an established trading range from around £2 to £2.35. Luckily, I did make my profit but I am wondering if the trading range is lower now. Would I go back in again at around £1.80. Probably but if they hit £1.50, something would either be amiss or it would be a tremendous buying opportunity!

Since the start of 2016 I have developed a sure fire system for the stock market. It is as simple as this. If I buy a share, the next day see it short on a spread bet. Run it for a week or so and you'll make good money!! It really has been uncanny. Nearly every share I have bought since Janaury 2016 has bombed for the first few days. Some have recovered wel and some not but AZN is the latest example. I bought on Monday at £46.24. Since then big drops and two partial recoveries but the last 2 days have been terrible. Yes, Trump says he wants to sort out the drug companies and Azn have lost a big hitter to Gsk but I did not think I'd see such downward moves like this. Or has it been the news on their lung cancer drug trials? Or, as I suspect, a perfect storm? Any closer followers know more about the drop? Surely Azn are not in trouble are they, or do they often move up and down in these big chunks - even given they are over £40 a share. I genuinely thought that the negatives were in the price I bought at. Have I dropped another clanged though? Thoughts welcome.

Having been in and out of PAYS for almost 5 years, and currently well in, I've seen this kind of thing with increased frequency during the past eighteen months or so. In the OPAY days, every update or set of results seem to produce large SP rises - and thoroughly enjoyable it was - but that could not carry on forever. Eventually the sheer growth in the company was going to make it harder to produce spectacular results after spectacular results. Also, there was always good news to be anticipated, a move to the FTSE350 from AIM, the purchase of Skrill, to name but two. However, again, it couldn't always stay like that. But I have noticed that a lot of investors in recent months come on board and possibly expect the mega rises on news that those of us enjoyed in earlier days. I hope for their sake, and mine, those kind of rises return but I suspect a more pedestrian and regular set of rises will become the order of the day, especially when the shorting is over and done with. Naturally, some startling news on the M&A front etc etc would probably send the SP skyward but I'm do think the regular large jumps upwards are gone now. Still a great share to be in but the old saying about how the stock market is a vehicle to transfer money from the impatient to the patient does need toe borne in mind. Lastly, as an example of how PAYS has moved on, let's not forget that in the OPAY days the big hope was how the US would legalise online gambling and we would massively benefit from that. Nowadays, this aspect of the business is rarely mentioned.

I think that's an excellentt point, Wolfhound. I cannot imagine that the big players who shorted us down in December have sat on their hands since then watching the price climb back. If so, what was the point of their exercise? If these shorters are still mostly sitting on their sells, then either they have all made a massive mistake or they know something we don't. But the more I think about this shorting business the chancier it seems. After all, they short big time but then have to buy back eventually to actually realise the profit. Hence, as soon as they start to buy the chances of the SP moving back up greatly increase. So, it seems that among the shorters the biggest winners will have the fastest fingers! They may as well back horse in running on the beating exchanges. Anyway, I'm going to stop worrying about the shorters. I don't normally use stop-losses but have put one in for the next few days in case of another shorting attack, starting tomorrow. Whether it will do me any good IF the price is ever subject to the huge and very fast plungers it saw that day in December I don't know but it will stop me going down as far as last time. And if it ever does plummet like that again, I will simply load up again. Let's keep our fingers crossed for tomorrow now.

Thanks for the reply, G Smiley. What is so amazing is just how greedy 2/3 of the shorters appear to be. After all, around 400p to 220p was a huge fall and surely enough to satisfy the shroters even after their fees for borrowing the stock. Even more so when you consider the risk they face if the loans are recalled. I would agree with you that the buyback by the PAYS management was a shrewd move but morally this aspect of the modern stock market stinks. It has actually been of benefit to me because it gave me the chance to lower my average price by around 50p and I congratulate you on taking much bigger advantage than I did! But, something doesn't sit right with me about shorting when it is was been used in the fashion it was in December. I might just be old fashioned, though! Anyway, here's to the update. Do you think, though, that the 100 million Pays have put aside for the buyback will be enough to ward off the shorters? This worries me somewhat, I must confess.

Anyone know why this one has taken a sudden hit Friday and so far today?

I completely understand the view that the markets are due a big correction. I have that feeling myself but two things to consider. 1/ I keep meaning to research this properly, but I have the feeling that historic market highs have never been reached with interest rates as low as they are now. Personally, I think keeping interest rates so low to service a debt ridden set of economies is foolish in the extreme. Eventually the bullet will have to be bitten and those who have run up such stupid amounts of debt will have to suffer. But for now, where else can the money from those who have it actually go? The stock market seems the only place where returns can be made. Hence, I wonder if we might see markets continue to rise, albeit in pretty stop start fashion, until more sensible economic policy is put in place and banks have to look for funds from the public instead of simply borrowing them from governments at ludicrously low rates. 2/ it seems to be human instinct to always think the opposite is going to happen at extreme times! In a slump we think it will end soon, yet it often goes on and vice-versa. As a result, continued involvement in the markets but with very strict stop losses, and perhaps even with insurance through shorting, is not to be dismissed. Let's not forget the opposite of this back in 2009. After the uproar of 2008, the markets rose by large amounts the following year once it was realised the banking crisis was not going to be the end of the world. But how many of us, and I was one, sat there waiting for the train to come back to the station so we could get aboard? It never did and only those who ran after the train throughout 2009 reaped the big rewards.

An interesting discussion. Each to their own and a strategy of being content with regular, smaller profits, is certainly not to be dismissed. It is rare for those who trade shares to hit the fabled 'ten bagged', so a more realistic approach is definitely sensible. But surely the amount of profit taken should be a reflection of risk against reward? A quick 10% on Vodafone is realistic because it is pretty safe share with a good dividend as a bonus should a holding cover that period. Indeed, I have a strategy for looking for shares which pay a reasonable divi and which look to have recently begun an uptrend - I gave up trying to catch falling knives a long time ago! However, 10% on, say, an AIM company which has wildly fluctuating profits would not be enough reward. Hence, risk and reward should be the by word. Also, it took me a long while to learn my lesson about taking quick profits, say at 10%. Nowadays I will aim for an initial 7.5% but then run a stop loss up behind that figure should it be achieved. Too many times I have seen shares go on to rise much further after I have got out, so now I stop loss in a 7.5% profit and let the share keep running upward if I am lucky enough to have picked a winner. Knowing a profit has been locked in is a comfortable way to check the daily prices! Lastly, I don't agree that 90% of share buyers do so on gut instinct. A lot do but not 90%. If that were the case then the market would be an even bigger casino than it is now! BTW, I recent,y bought in to VOD at 202p so the drop after that to 188p was taking me pretty close to my stop loss figure. Now, though, with the divi factored in, I am pretty close to moving my stop loss to the point where I lock in my 7.5% profit. Thai one is bit different, though, because if it were to hit 230p before I was stopped out along the way, I would cut and run. I currently don't see higher than 230p under any circumstances.