Member Info for phoenixchi

Good post.. Yes, I recall the sell off when a larger chunk of shares than today was sold by an institution. The price came back then, as it always has so far with this share no matter what the setback. It seems highly resilient. I bought in at under £1 years back and topped up considerably with the rights issue last year but all my lovely profit is simply now covering losses on other shares which are plunging in value. There was always a big chance we would see market correction this year but this up and down behaviour on the Dow and FTSE seems overdone. You are spot on, 200 point movements are becoming the norm. I should not be like this, as it will start to discourage serious investors whilst encouraging gamblers. I suppose the other thing about institutions selling now is that the end of the fiscal tax year is nearing. I just hope other big outfits don't feel the need to manipulate their books, if that is what it was. You are certainly not the only one who bought into something at the wrong moment. I bought £5k of shares in a property developer on Monday. Fantastic year-end results next day and bang! 14% drop in three days. I have lost confidence in the markets for time being because really good fundamentals are being ignored during these frequent mini bloodbaths. In 30 odd years of share buying I don't recall a set of markets so reactive to even the most non-descripte bit of bad news.

Good post.. Yes, I recall the sell off when a larger chunk of shares than today was sold by an institution. The price came back then, as it always has so far with this share no matter what the setback. It seems highly resilient. I bought in at under £1 years back and topped up considerably with the rights issue last year but all my lovely profit is simply now covering losses on other shares which are plunging in value. There was always a big chance we would see market correction this year but this up and down behaviour on the Dow and FTSE seems overdone. You are spot on, 200 point movements are becoming the norm. I should not be like this, as it will start to discourage serious investors whilst encouraging gamblers. I suppose the other thing about institutions selling now is that the end of the fiscal tax year is nearing. I just hope other big outfits don't feel the need to manipulate their books, if that is what it was. You are certainly not the only one who bought into something at the wrong moment. I bought £5k of shares in a property developer on Monday. Fantastic year-end results next day and bang! 14% drop in three days. I have lost confidence in the markets for time being because really good fundamentals are being ignored during these frequent mini bloodbaths. In 30 odd years of share buying I don't recall a set of markets so reactive to even the most non-descripte bit of bad news.

If I have read the RNS correctly, Bank of New Yoek and 2 other major players have offloaded a chunk of these shares today. I would imagine that is the reason for today's fall - alongside, of course, the panic behaviour completely absorbing the markets now...

Proof that the stock market has become a madhouse now. SMP report terrific profits yet because sales in the locality are sluggish we see the shares dive to even further beneath the NAV. This is happening in many shares now and is a sell off that is being overdone. Hence, time for bargains but personally I do not trust the markets now because rationality has departed. Let's hope it soon returns.

Yes, I have been wondering the same thing. But I have looked and looked through the company data and can't seen anything to cause this drop. I have been watching this share for some time and have to conclude that it seems very closely linked to the FTSE 100. I suppose that is because central London properties are so aligned with success on the money markets. Perhaps I have missed something and perhaps there is an issue but the crucial time will come when the FTSE has a proper rally lasting for a few days. If GPOR doesn't come up with it, then I will think again.

Ok...thanks... (Bought yesterday on the dip)

Broker downgrade to neutral - was that enough, even in a weak market, to cause the drop today? Anyone have views on this outfit generally?

Don't understand your question Whirlow. The difference between the buy and the sell price (the spread) cannot be represented as a monetary figure. It is a percentage and thus the monetary figure difference between the buy and the sell is dependent on how much you are buying / selling in the share. If you buy £10k worth of shares and the 'spread' (difference between buy and sell price) is 0.10% you will be down £10 as soon as the trade is made (that is assuming the share price does not move after you purchase). So, don't understand what you mean by £7.50? Surely the spread isn't 7.5% is it (if that is what you meant)? Of course, on top of the spread and stamp duty (a purchase tax on shares - not applicable to AIM shares) there is the dealing charge. I pay £12.50 per trade (buy and sell) but could find cheaper if I wasn't too lazy! Bearing the latter in mind, there is a difference between the dealing charge at different brokers. Is that what you meant? So, not sure what you are driving at here. PS: Don't take offence but I am assuming this is not one of those stupid 'fishing' threads which some forums are plagued by. People, bored and moronic people, sometimes take great pleasure in seeing how many replies they can generate with a daft post. IF, and I do mean IF, this is one of those I am the fool for replying to it!

Think maybe you have made a stupid mistake in not knowing about 1987 and are now thrashing about talking nonsense in an attempt to cover it. The fact remains that 1987 and 2008 saw very sudden crashes and on both occasions a recovery from the crash was rapid. It is the recovery from the crashes I am talking about, not where the market went after the crash damage was repaired. For the market to still rise 2% on the year in 1987 after such huge falls in the October was very noticeable. 2000 to 2002 was a sustained fall following the dot.com crash. Not arguing about that, just making the point that the markets can very quickly recover lost ground. I implied nothing with my post. You simply wanted to read that into what i said so you could broadcast your 'knowledge' about yearly rises and falls of the FTSE. Trouble is, with me you are debating with an investor and gambler (I am a racetrack bookie) of more than 30 years who has made, and lost, vast sums on the markets. I can spot bluffers a mile away.

Good grief. Are you kidding about 1987? What about Black Monday? US stock market lost 22% in a day, second biggest fall on record. London was equally bad and it looked a disaster at time. the markets dead-cat bounced and then crashed again in same week. Auto trading took some of the blame. At the time, the crash was seen as the biggest since 1929. The fact that US and London markets recovered by year end is exactly the point I am making about how quickly markets can, but not always, recover from huge crashes. Suggest you educate yourself a bit more before questioning posts.

Yes, a crash is a possibility and I personally have sold about half my holdings in the past month. But if you are going to wait for PAYS to be under a £1 you'll be waiting a long while, I'm afraid. If this company went to under £1 then we would not have a crash, we would have the end of the world. Seriously, if it went anywhere near that low it would be snapped up by a rival competitor. I've been investing now since the early 1980's and the thing about a crash is that the genuine recovery comes very quickly. 1987 and 2009 (after 2008) are the most two recent examples. After a crash, most investors are wary and look for firm foundations before re-entering. But there are generally no firm foundations and the market gets up an running with a lot of investors still sitting tight. 2009 was the best example ever. 2008 truly did seem like the end of the world but once it was realised it wasn't the market had a terrific year. A lot of investors did well but an equal amount sat waiting for the train to come back into the station when it was well and truly gone!!

Although we have suffered an 8% drop today, to me it seems like pretty good news that the outgoing investors have unloaded a huge chunk of shares so easily. It will be interesting to see who has bought at £3.46. The drop beyond that is annoying but typical of modern day share investing where too many individuals panic and jump ship at every piece of news. Am watching this very closely now ready to top-up....although the news on US interest rates next week is sitting like a dark cloud over everything at present so care required, me thinks.

Hard to say what the price will do really but someone mentioned to me on Wednesday that they had heard a big outfit was starting to look at PAYS.. This contact works in the city and is quite well informed, although he does have a tendency to repeat trading floor gossip without thinking it through. What disturbs me a little, though, is if someone is looking to take out PAYS why would CVC sell now? I've been with PAYS since they were 90p and topped with, and after, the right issue. it remains my best ever share but it is taking years off me because the SP has to keep climbing over hurdles! Think the time has come to set a profit target, probably around £4.20, and stop fretting on a daily basis....

Don't want to speak too soon but surely much encouragement today from we held our ground here in the face of a rapidly dropping market. PAYS recovered from a point where it was looking like a plunge was approaching...

Honestly... Trying to read anything good or bad into why JL has sold some of his holding is pointless. Who can know what his reasons are aside from him and his closest advisors? When he took the loan out a while back we had the panic merchants out in force and the price took a big dip. Given the rise up and up since then they were completely wrong. So, let's hope we don't see the same stupidity this time. For him to sell because of negative company reasons would mean he has been sitting on one hell of a deception in terms of PAYS's figures and prospects. Anyway, does not the USA tax regime allow people to base their tax affairs on either a calendar year (Jan - Dec), or a fiscal year (12 months from the end of any month except December)? Hence, my guess would be that JL might well be tax planning on a calendar year basis...

I've been with OPAY since around the 90p mark and loaded up more at 1.66 with the rights issue. The company seems on the up and up and I am confident that my substantial gains will be added to. But there is a but... What are the views are here about the PAYS share price if the world economy takes a massive dive like 2008? I ask because not many appear to have learned the lesson of 2008 about too much debt. Regardless of the bank's behaviour back then, debt only increases if people keep borrowing. From what I can see, there is a real ignorance with the general public about money and debt and it frightens me just how prepared to borrow (over borrow) money people are. One only has to watch afternoon TV to see just how many 'quick loan's outfits are out there. All appear to be thriving and the meaning of debt seems lost on most people who simply put everything to do with their finances off 'until tomorrow'. The US and UK governments seem completely prepared to ignore using interest rates as a crucial tool in managing a balanced economy, instead using them as a political thing. In other words, they so fear losing votes from a debt-ridden society they refuse to put them up even when basic economic theory screams they should. I've posted this elsewhere on here but we live in a la-la land where too many people are too foolish with money to sustain things for much longer. Hence, when things come tumbling down in much bigger fashion than 2008 - and I am convinced they will - does PAYS come tumbling as well, or are they solid enough to withstand everything crashing around them and then come back stronger? What do other PAYS fans think?

Terrible journalism by MF. Regardless of their view, what does 'it doesn't have the barriers to entry' mean? Surely it should say, 'it doesn't have the means to overcome the barriers to entry'? I pure terms of the english language that is terrible writing. Those involved with the MF site are idiots and it makes me laugh at a few on here who ignore the amazing rise of Opay and choose to focus on one website's view!

OK, thanks El Prof. That makes sense, alongside Filshare's comments. I have spread bet XCH but it is a shame no bookie offers odds over whether it will be Capita or Apollo who wins out. That's because I would wager a lot of money that Capita win through. At what price though? Well, we shall see! Good luck.

I think the chances of 1.70 being exceeded seem to hinge upon a 3rd bidder turning up, or Apollo increasing their offer. An important point to bear in mind is that Capita probably need only to match the Apollo offer to win the prize - that is if no other party comes in. I say the latter because it seems to me that if Apollo and Capita were to both end up tabling identical offers then Capita would surely win because the XCH board are favouring Capita. I believe they have reasons other than size of bid for this - IE to ensure Lloyds still receives the service they have now. I must confess to being a little surprised at how the XCH board have lent towards Capita so openly from so early on. With two bids on the table did they need to say what they did? You are right Filshare, same as El Prof, that we now have £1.60 locked in. Hence, I have now spread bet XCH in case we do start moving over the £1.70 level. only using a small part of my gains though. Overall, though, XCH's share price should tell us all something about the market! Two weeks ago, the market valued XCH at 1.05 or thereabouts. But two big companies, having now seen the books, place a value of 1.60 to1.70!!! I think we all knew XCH was badly undervalued by the market but it still goes to show that the market can be very wrong sometimes. Anyway, good luck to all still in (and to my new spread bet!)

You may well be right El Prof. I do have a track record of cutting out a bit too early! In July I saw a four figure loss in a company called STM turn into a four figure profit inside 3 weeks. I cut out, as my target had been exceeded but the share then put on enough to have given me an extra 50% gain!!! With XCH, I also think I am a little biased because of how an ex-Director told me £1.60 was the value per share the board had in mind for the company (See an earlier post of mine). But that was almost four years ago now and things have changed since then. I will certainly be spread betting this over the next day or two and then I'll be willing on the price alongside you again! Last thing, though. Why do you think the board are so keen on Capita? Were they mindful to take £1.60 before Apollo came in or is this the way things are played when more than one bidder is circling?