Member Info for phoenixchi

Hi El Prof and others.. I have watched this potential bid with interest and, I must confess, off loaded the majority of my XCH holding last week at close to £1.70. My reasons were as follows. 1/ XCH was a 'trading share' for me, not an investment one. I bought at 1.28 earlier in year and forgot to put a limit order in at 1.43, which was my target. It hit that while I was away and then fell back hugely after KL resigned. Hence, I was pretty pi**ed off having missed my target price through a mistake. At 98p ish I more than doubled my holding and so was pretty pleased by the two bids. After weighing up my other reasons below, I decided to cut out with a very substantial profit which had arisen like a phoenix from a hefty paper loss! 2/ As soon as the bids became public it seemed to me that the XCH board much preferred the Capita one. I believe this is because the board have good relationships with Lloyds of London and are always going to favour a takeover where they can assure the latter that service will stay the same. Perhaps Apollo would be as equally as competent as Capita but my gut feeling was that the XCH board would be very mindful of the service to Lloyds. I also know that one or two board members had some bad experiences with a US private equity outfit when they bought another similar, but smaller, outsourcer some years ago. 3/ There is an old saying with share trading (not so much as with investing) which says 'let others enjoy the top of the market because they run the greater risk of suffering the bottom'. So, all in all I decided the gamble was that a bidding war would ensue that I would miss if I sold. Perhaps it still will but, again, my gut feeling was that it wouldn't, largely because XCH seem to prefer Capita. This said, one major investor seems to believe 1.60 isn't enough. What will happen if they oppose the Capita bid will be interesting. Of course, I could be very wrong but nobody got poor on taking profits, let alone substantial ones! As I said just now, one of the main investors in XCH seems to think £1.60 isn't enough so there is still quite a bit in this but I am out now and can only wish good luck to those who stay the distance - I may well still join the remainder of the race but only with a small spread bet from my profits. Good luck all. phoenixchi

Very good news. It gives nothing away with regard to my connection with XCH to say that not long after Ken took over I met him and asked him what he would pay, per share, if he were CEO elsewhere and mounting a bid. He wouldn't answer! However, a week later I was with another senior executive and he laughed at Ken's coyness and said that, strictly in his view, 1.60 a share was the right price to start with. Now, that was some time ago and value does seem to have been added since. Hence, £1.70 minimum is surely right. Let's hope this comes off but nothing is certain. I would also be interested what would happen if the markets took a proper, almighty crash in the autumn - I hope they won't but my feeling is that it cant be ruled out with so much strife and general uncertainess everywhere. Would that, I wonder, scupper any possible deal? Interesting times but thank the lord i went in again at 98.5p to more than double my holding from £1.28. Still...I am too long in the tooth to be counting my chickens quite yet!!!

As with all your posts, El Prof, top stuff - I have to agree with Ping Pong on that. I hope you are right. XCH has a history of shooting itself in the foot so you never be totally confident with them but all things look positive at present. Fingers crossed.

They did this last week, went up 6p in one day but gave all of it back. Can't work it out unless someone, somewhere is buying up on one day each week. Most welcome, though. Let's hope they retain the uplift this time and move on from there...

At last, a poster who is not a million miles away from my view. A great share but too many posters seem to think there will be a series of 'light-switch' moments sending the share skywards at any given moment. I keep saying - whatever the merits of the share - it is never as simple as that. Go back a month and did anyone see the current big correction coming in world markets quite so quickly? Anyone who did would have made more money out of shorting the market than they ever will from OPAY! My point is that nothing is certain and that includes OPAY. It looks good but you never know what can derail things. We all want fast rises but slow and steady ones will better keep you warm when the cold winds blow. As for the MM's manipulating things! Well, I repeat my question from weeks back: how much does that really go on? Answer: Very little.

Yes, a dead cat bounce for New York that only lasted hours.... Really sad that any good news from Opay is likely to only shore up the SP rather than push it on.

I didn't say you, or mean to imply you, i said 'an air on this board'. Lo and behold another poster comes in a bit later expecting a 15% rise in a day. That kind of over optimism is what I meant. But the main thrust of my post was that there is so much expectation behind this share for both short-, medium- and long-term that it bothers me how the share price has not been steadily rising. Today's fall, which is more than the London market, is possibly OPAY catching up with the doom and gloom from earlier in the week but, by now, I would have hoped downs of this size would have been a thing of the past. Let's hope it picks up again later on. The fundamentals here are hugely better than when i bought in at 53p a few years back. Expectation drove the price massively high then and then came the Skrill thing where we hit £5+. Since then, though, the price has come down considerably, which makes no real sense. My suspicion is that, despite all the future promise, the days of this SP delighting its holderswith fast rises are behind it now. I agree with you that onwards and upwards at a steady rate would be best but I still maintain that a good number of posters on here seem to think there are going to be 'light switch' moments - IE results, FTSE250 - that will quickly send us on our way to the stars. My message is to those investors who think the latter: I hope you are right but it is rarely as easy as that!

R3D2 and others, I hope you are right because I have been with Opay since the 50p days and am many thousands in front. But, despite how good they look - and they certainly do - I still sense an air on this board of investors thinking there is going to be a 'light switch' moment when the share will fly. Of course I hope it does but a word of caution. In your latest post you say that you have backed your view with 'investment, as have many others'. Well, that would imply demand outstripping supply and a share price rising faster then it has done in recent months. Yes, perhaps the MM's have been messing around with the price but how much does that really happen? My point is that if it were as easy as certain things happening and then the share price flying it would have done so in anticipation already. Making money on shares is very, very rarely that simple, In time all signs are extremely good but I just cannot see the price motoring upwards in the way some posters seems to expect. Not because of anything the company is doing but simply because 'if it sounds too good to be true it usually is'. I hope my slight reservations are totally misplaced though!

Terrific write-up El Prof, if a little deep for me on a Monday morning! Analysts. Well, over the years I have had to conclude that they often hold worthless views. If they were bookmakers on horse racing they would be potless almost instantly. You simply cannot value a company at 2.20 one week and 1.00 the next. That is plain daft. But back to XCH. I think it is very clear now that we are looking at one of the most undervalued companies on the markets. I did indeed top up at 98p but what bothers me since is what the new CEO will do. Should they concentrate on changing sentiment about XCH and thus keeping the shareholders happy, or should they concentrate on running the business in the belief the market will eventually wise up? Of course, as with all CEO's of listed outfits, they have to do both. So, my plea to the XCH board is to find an individual who has definite skills in both areas. What I fear is that they, like other listed companies, might take an arrogant view of the market and simply find someone who has the skills to run the business but not the PR talent and charisma to make investors come aboard. Still a good play but I am with this for the very last time now!

In keeping with the previous post to this, does anyone have an informed idea why the share price of Pru has dropped so noticeably the last few weeks? Was it the regulation problems in India? To my mind that did not seem enough of an issue to prompt such a setback in SP. I am well in profit on this share from initial purchase three years ago and am tempted to go in again now because of drop but I would like to see what may have caused the recent reversal. Anyone?

Perhaps it is me, but the tone of some posts is that the FCA approval is all that is required for big rises. Whether I have read that right or wrong, though, surely if a rise was as straightforward as FCA approval and entry to FTSE, anticipation of such would be reflected in increased demand and a rising SP now? There are plenty of gamblers on AIM and surely, this close to what many are interpreting as 'light switch' events, enough would be piling in here for a rise already? Like I say, I do hope I am wrong because a pocketful of cash is better than being proved correct on a message board!

moorhey, Very interesting. Will look at the blog but I don't touch jumps at all. Flat only for me and on course only but mostly using the exchanges from there. Also, a big fan of AW racing in winter where form is incredibly reliable. I don't share tips at all, mainly because I work the horses in a very different way from most punters. For me it is all about grinding out small but very regular profits - and I do mean grind! Ageism - oh yes, at mid 50's don't I know but without it I would not be full time on horses. But boy, it is full-time. Figures, form and price watching all morning and then racing 4 to 5 times a week in afternoon and evening. Still, it is far better than IT work and what I always wanted to do. I love it, despite the stress. Was at Notts yesterday with a small profit but whole afternoon was blighted by thoughts of XCH's fall! To end, back to ageism. if we are both still about on here and I ever do end up mentioning why I have inside knowledge of XCH, you will see ageism mentioned again. Off to Thirsk now. Best wishes.

So, we have to wait to 11th August. Typical but further to my post yesterday, what do we think will happen at the time FCA approval is granted? (I assume it will be granted because OPAY would not be so positive if they didn't already have a pretty good idea). With £15k of shares bought at 50p to £1.12, plus the recent issue, nobody wants to see this baby fly more than me. But I do not think FCA approval is the magic bullet some imagine it will be! I know all the good stuff to come if FCA approval is given but the anticipated price surge will not be as straightforward as many hope for. To start with, if it was as easy as FCA saying 'yes' and SP then soaring do you not think we would have seen a big rise already, as buyers latched on to a potential big profit for a probable positive nod from the FCA? Also, if there is a surge, all it might end up doing is erasing possible SP falls from the next few days. Now, medium- to long-term this does look a tasty prospect but I do think many people on here need to reign in their expectations about what will happen in the immediate aftermath of FCA approval. It is rarely that easy, sorry to say! I can picture in my mind's eye this board the days after FCA approval. SP will surely rise but I can well envisage a good few posts saying 'disappointed' and 'not what was expected'. I hope I am very wrong - my ego has always taken second place to cash on the hip - but don't say you were not warned....

ElProf, Again, the best and most balanced write-up of a company I have read on any forums anywhere. One thing I am heartened by is that you feel Lever is going with good nature and not being forced. After yesterday's news I rather had the feeling he was jumping ship before one or two institutional investors lent on him. I am also in agreement with the sales picture. My long standing fear with this outfit has been that their manic, and often misplaced, obsession with procedures and process was always going to hamper any progress in this area but perhaps that fear can be dismissed now. (As I have said before, I do have very close hand experience of this company but still cannot say what it is. If I could, I am sure all on this forum thread would see why I developed such definite views!) Anyway, where do we go from here? Well, El Prof's views are the best guide, yet I still have one major worry. I now back horses full-time (not a glamour living BTW, i just grind it out using certain pretty dull methods) and so have an intimate knowledge of how bookies work. I know that bookies sometimes get the price of a horse wrong (more often than you would think) but the market place (the punters) usually correct this pretty quickly! Hence, whatever the fundamentals of a horse's profile, the market is usually the best guide to its chances. So, how does that relate to XCH? Well, the problem is with the market view of the company and not its fundamentals. Somewhere along the way, market sentiment has to be changed about XCH. The new CEO might be the key. He or she will have the tools to work with but will have to make XCH popular again. I very much hope the board in their search for a new CEO - if they don't already know who it will be - base their selection on the first task required - IE making sentiment in the City favourable again. I do recall the day David Andrews went. The share price halved when it should have gone up because Andrews had lost the plot! The skills he had in starting up the company, and then floating it, were all but redundant for how a publicly quoted outfit had to run. OK, his leaving was accompanied by some terrible, terrible figures but it was good news he was on his way. Hence, it is odd how the market seems to over-react to the departures of XCH CEO's more than any company I can ever remember. I really don't know why. Lastly, one other small worry. No offence to the individual responsible but the PR with XCH is terrible. They rarely blow their own trumpet enough and miss plenty of chances to push positive news. On the other hand, they time their bad news terribly! So, improvement here please. Anyway, let's hope the faith of those who are left as shareholders are at least rewarded with a bit of a bounce over coming days. With me, though, this the last chance saloon. if we are not around 15% better by end of this financial year I will be away to pastures new! GLA

What really frustrates me is that I went in about five months ago at £1.28 to make a fast 10% Got that spot on and was at target inside a week. Like a greedy tw*t, I held on though and went for more. Now look! My own fault. Never try to catch a falling knife they say, but have just gone in for another 5k's worth because, yes, by any standards they now seem a bit too cheap. (I say by any standards but the only standard that really counts is the current market price!!!) Anyway, let's see what happens. Good luck....

I will be exceedingly happy to be proved wrong!!!

Too right, PingPong. But the board have cost themselves a lot of cash today. Unwin must love Lever this morning, as he is around £25k light on his most recent investment at around the £1.28 mark! I tell you, horse racing is straighter than this stock market lark....

Honestly, guys. I've been with Opay since they were 50p and have almost £15k of shares. It has been a great ride. BUT, some of the posts on here make me laugh. Do people really think it is that simple? Hey-ho, the Skrill thing gets final approval and away the share price goes? If it were, the SP would have gone skyward by now in anticipation of good news. The MM's play this game better than us. They are rarely wrong-footed and expecting some kind of big upward push coming so easily on the back of 1 announcement is daft. Of course, I hope it does go up but remember the old stack market adage: BUY ON THE RUMOUR, SELL ON THE NEWS.... Best wishes, all.

What a stupid reaction in price to the news of Lever's pending retirement. However, whilst it had to be announced at some point, doing it alongside a mundane half-yearly report has caused a big loss to many shareholders. OK, it will probably come back in time but to my mind the apparent lack of understanding by the board over how the market regards this outfit is probably demonstrated by the timing of this announcement. Thoughts anyone?

PingPong1 Thanks for your reply. I had forgotten about the ex-divi, so that's good. But the CMA gave provisional proposal to the purchase a few weeks back and the shares went up almost 8p as a result. But perhaps the final approval due in late May will do the trick. What I find annoying is that I bought in at 1.28 a short while ago looking for a quick 10% profit (because I don't trust the company) but forgot to put a limit sale on the order. Hence, within four days the price had hit 1.445 but I missed it due to being away and now I'm close to 10% down (divi not counted). Ho hum.... Actually, I might try the same thing again shortly but, then again, should I be chasing a possible falling knife?!!!