Member Info for Phoebus

I wholeheartedly agree. Fundamentals look excellent. As far as I am aware there are two Tanzanian gas projects that are about to come on line in which small cap LSE listed firms have an interest, KN for SOLO and AEX and Mnazi Bay for WRL. I wanted to get an idea of which project offered greater SP upside so I did a comparable DCF valuation. I ignored expenses and just focused on discounted net revenues to give an idea of cash flow. I assumed a 20% decline ratio, NPV10, $3.07/MSCF and a 15 year field life. I set the initial flow rates at 30 MMSCF/D for KN and 130 MMSCF/D for Mnazi Bay as per RNS. Total gas produced is less than the Mnazi Bay 2P reserves figure, but exceeds the KN Pmean. The valuations are as follows. [SOLO] £6.7M, 0.12p per share or 25% of SP. [AEX] £24.1M, 1.28p per share or 65% of SP. [WRL] £96.2M, 62.4p per share or 198% of SP. On this basis WRL clearly offers the best exposure to Tanzanian gas production, in fact rather impressive low risk exposure it appears. WRL has also already signed its GSA and states it will be able to fund further extensive Tanzanian exploration from internal cash flows. It is also in the process of finalizing a payment guarantee which will assure it off cash flow once production has started, which it states should be in September. WRL is on breakout this morning on Oslo Bors having just hit 4.4 Krone or 35.85p. LSE price still only 32.5p or 10.3% discount. Time us UK investors took more of an interest.

start in Oslo, but LSE still not moved up. Bid now 12.2% below Oslo!

Thanks Jergen. I think you're right about UK retailer interest. They should focus a but more on fundamentals, which look extremely strong for WRL. Free cash flow should be very significant.

currently about 9% below the Oslo price. This is the greatest differential of the last 18 months.

By the way, do you know of a free live chart for WRL on the Oslo Bors. There are many live London charts, but the price is rather meaningless. Thanks.

Thanks for the link Jergen. UK investors seem more interested in SOLO's Tanzanian project, but they should really be invested here instead. When they finally realise I think the SP will already be much higher. Looks like were about to break 4.3NOK in Oslo. :D

Last trade in Oslo 34.4p.

vote of confidence by BOD buying 17 million shares and II overhang gone. We go North!

is 33.65 to sell, a 6.8% premium to LSE. Oslo is the main market for WRL.

LSE price still nearly 7% below Norwegian price.

paid 34.19p on Oslo Bors

RNS this morning to add to a strong underlying case. Decent buying on LSE and Oslo Bors price up 11%. :D

20ppb and 10ppb are only 0.02g/t and 0.01g/t. Hmm...

Gutted to be honest. I can't believe the reaction here. They waited 3 years for the news, it came out of the blue, it was almost impossible to buy, none of my limit orders were filled and almost nobody got in below 8p on the news. Where was the follow through? I thought I'd nailed it getting an initial tranche at 6.67p on the news, but my couple of hundred profit got wiped. I can only guess the share is very thinly traded and long term holders didn't care and just wanted out. AMC gets a mining licence and goes bonkers. Better luck for us next time. Try ALBA if your interested in Horse Hill. They did a placement on Friday, so you can buy at a low. I'm hoping for a 50% drift upwards as they move towards flow testing, but DYOR.

Why not ALBA too? Got their funding away today, so you could get in at a low.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2SlwV7mtsmw

Yep. Good spot there. Will adjust strategy accordingly. Cheers.

Folks are aware that TRAP has said they are short of funds.

As they're not operator I guess they don't have a choice. Plus I think it's a commitment well. Your hunch about funding may be right.

Your figures are correct. http://www.trapoil.com/media/18642/12._trapoil_licence_interests_12.02.15.xlsx.pdf