Member Info for PhilGekko

ChrisToffer.... 100% agree. Amazed by how many people invested in SNG because they thought it was hoing the be the first and only solution to Covid.

At 100,000 treatments per month we are way over 1 billion mcap. On top of that - if, as expexted, governments start to add this to national stockpiles - we're flying :) Even that astronomical 100gbp/share is no longer sounds insane!

Just my opinion, could be wrong of course but aounds possible.

Terrier54... good day to hold both 4D and SNG :)

BruceJamieson... it is so sad that our only consolation is the fact that the US, lead by that orange idiot, is doing worse than us. When did it become acceptable that we should be pleased about being second from the bottom at something/anything?
Standrads are not slipping... they've slipped.

Dumbpunter... in biotech/pharma no investment is safe until phase III is completed successfully and treatment is then approved.
Your comment re Pfizer's Phase II trial are very confusing... donyou suggest that one anti-viral (even if Pfizer completes trials ahead of SNG) is suffieicent for the entire Reapiratory Care Therapy Area patient population? That is funny Dumbpunter. Not surenif you intended it to be?

I agree with you btw that people should never over-eztend themselves as biotech investments are considered very high risk. And everyone should do their own research and believe in it.

WelshFalcon... agree with you. ASpirin, Vitamin D, Vitamin C, Zinc and Propolis... that's what's in my cupboard. Yes, there is not enough evidence but all these boost the immune system and aspirin has several useful properties (including blood thinning).

Dumbpunter.... let's assume (like you did in your previous post) that Phase 2 trial in hospital setting (the one with 79% efficacy and peer reviewed in the Lancet) did not happen.

EPIPEN in the US cost 650-700 USD. Epipen! Do you think in a country of 300,000,000 + people there won't be enough of a market for 100k treatments/month (considering what they are used to paying?)
https://www.drugs.com/article/epipen-cost-alternatives.html#:~:text=How%20Much%20Does%20an%20EpiPen,discounts%20may%20lower%20the%20price.

Oakleaf, thanks! Do you have a link by any chance please?

Scinv... just when I thought how interesting and constructive your post was (about virus mutation and the need for a vaccine roll-out) - you go ahead and write this sarcastic comment about ' RM laying golden eggs after dinner'
Where is this dislike (to put it mildly) for RM coming for?
Are you invested in SNG (despite this dislike)?

Beforegolf... agreed. That's why in my opinion 50-100GBP SP target is not impossible (however dillusional it used to sound to me) providing that P3 results are as we all hope they should be.
1-2 billion of revenue (especially if recurring -i.e. governemnt stockpiling) makes this a 5-10 billion company , unless I am mistaken?

Scinv... what I can tell you from years in business is that your line 'Since you have been involved in all these deals in the past' smacks of sarcasm and immediately makes the other side want to disengage for doing business.
I could now spend time putting info together but frankly, in light of the above, don't feel like it.
The fact that I am invested means that I am happy with the points you needed more clarity on. And I would certainly suggest you shoulld seek professional advice before investing a single penny in SNG (I am not an investment/financialadvisor).
Final note: my post says 'I work regualrly with biotechs going through these process'... and I do. I don't conduct multi-billion USD deals daily and never pretended I did.
Good luck with your investment.

Scinv... I don't understand where your sarcasm is coming from and why the need to diss Syanirgen.

If Phase III is successful Synairgen will eventually be involved in a multi-billion USD negoatiation with (most likely) a big pharma. To conduct theae negotiations successfully and maximise their commercial potential small biotech hire external help - very often big name consultancy houses/ PS companies. There will be no epic battle between Goldman Sach and Morfan Stanley ( or similar).These giants regualrly conduct multi-billion USD negotiations and one more or less will not be the end of the world for either of them.
Unlike you (if I remember correctly a very proud virologist) I work regualrly with biotechs going through these processes so happy to share details surrounding this process.

CW25... I think it's neither of the two... for our sake hope it's not a company who's primary focus is apparently IR.
Sounded to me like RM was referring to a big consultsncy name. I would not entrust negotiations potentially worth billions of USD to a relatively small outfit.

Bigjohnnywin... Parexel is there to conduxt trials in 20+ countries. SNG would never have the manpower/expertise do this on their own. Parexel are a world-class CRO and conduct trials like this one regularly (for companies like Pfizer).

ChrisToffer... we will never know. But the fact that FDA are advising on P3 design , SNG's inclusion on Activ2 ,(as per that senate document Oxford12 shared) and a very bad situation US is in do make this a very possible (if not probable) scenario. Too much smoke here in my opinion for no fire.

Oxford12... thanks for this great reminder. I remember this Senate document a few weeks ago, SNG were explicitly mentioned and there is no doubt in my mind we're included now on this trial. Once our Activ2 kicks-off this will put FIRMLY on the radar of US investors. And that is great news for us, companies don't get included on Activ2 by chance and US investors know this.
As a UK national deeply upset that SNG appear to have been pushed into the arms of the USA. Really hope that is not the case.
As a SNG holder love the fact we are now getting even more appealing to the US-based inveators. They know how to appreciate revenue potential when they see one.

Shan... do you think FDA approval of the Pfizer vaccine is a big surprise and will cause a SNG share lrice drop? Do you feel this vaccine approval comes as a shock to many people?
In terma of BoJo messing up brexit negotiations... yes he will definitely screw things up. But SNG is now fully funded and not relying on wider macro-economic developments... some people might even decide to move their money from exposed sectors into promising biotech stocks, and imho we certainly are.

As always, this comes down to one question:

Do you believe SNG001 will successfully complete Phase III/get EUA?

If so, it is almost irrelevant what the share price is now. Because if Phase III is a success, market potential of this drug (especially if further trials show broad-spectrum antiviral efficacy) is truly (in my opinion) astonishing. Would be very difficult to truly quantify it.

If Phase III fails SP will drop massively. I think we all know this, if you don't you should't be investing in biotechs.
So, rather than panic, do your research. Consult colleagues, friends, experts whose opinion and advice you trust and how can validate (or not) the science behind SNG001. Visit Synairgen's reddit page - there is a lot of info and useful research from publicly available sources.

Phase III, albeit appears to be somewhat delayed, is about to kick off imminently. Ignore the noise. Eyes on the prize.
I am not a financial advisor/broker and nobody on this board is - so do not rely on anything people are prophesying but use your judgement. If you think SNG is going to fail - sell and move on. If you feel the science is sound - than stick to you guns.

Joshholdforgold... when I first read 100GBP share price forecast this morning I thought it was utterly insane. Genuinely did. Thought that was utter ramping nonsense.

But I like to quantifybthings so I looked at what volume SNG would need to be selling to achieve this SP and, if this drug ends up being stockpiled, this number is achievable. Ambitious but very achievable. And if P3 resilts are good - this ispossible.
And big pharma will want a revenuenrecurring model and pay premium. What is 10b for a Top10 Pharma company to invest in a cash cow like SNG (if P3 results are great)?

Joshholdforgold... interesting post, made me think frankly as difficult to choose. Would anyone not settle for a TOnof 120GBP per share?

If selling 266k treatments per months leads to SP of 100GBP (as people have been discussing thks mornonh) and assuming that big pharma would have to pay premium to acquire SNG - I would probably go for that.

Robsaunders.... thank, how do you know?