Member Info for PhilGekko

Mansion02 - are you suggesting that Nasdaq listing will not happen? Do you have proof?

Perhaps an RNS about Blautix partnership, Covid treatment update or any other pipeline-related news will see 4D move significantly north.
Unfortunately AIM just doesn't appreciate companies with this kind of potential.
Not mentioning Nasdaq because I do consider that a done deal and it is just a matter of time. But can't wait for 4D to make that move.

K-mac... only one interferon treatment was mentioned in Dr. Jha's Senate testimony (bottom of page 3) - SNG001

Enrico... yes, so true. He did change. Maybe the add could be : I changed my name to P. Diddy as there can be only one puff daddy - SNG001!

Just an idea... not sure if this has already been discussed?

Mission accomplished or lunch break???
They have worked hard this morning.

It is endearing to see so many 'good Samaritans' coming to the board telling us to sell.

Nothing has changed - if you believe in SNG , ignore the white noise and hold for gold. Hopefully we hear some excellent news soon on several fronts, especially since sanity will once again return to the White House.

If you are not sure about SNG then perhaps you should sell, take your profits (well deserved) and let IIs take your shares. They are happy to help I think.

Do your own research. Ultimately trust only your research and your opinion when making investment decision. Good luck to us all!!!

Org... that's interesting, thanks for sharing. So he is basically agreeing with us here on this board.

Yes, it will cost more than Lemsip - but if it cuts hospital stays in the developing markets could be a good deal for the health systems.

gggg21 - I remember Citadel short burning on 4D in December. I think they are not aware of the potential landmine they've just stepped on.

Joshholdforgold... wouldn't want to be in their should come appraisal/ performance review time. Not sure how many SMART objectives they will have hit. Not sure what they're being paid but it is too much.

Popcorn ready for the shorter bonfire in a few days.

Porky9.... thank you for your post and for putting some numbers down to quantify.
There are a few points to add to your analysis , I believe:
***Stockpiling revenue - if you look at SNG2021 presentation RM shared in a webinar a few months ago this is a big part of revenue composition and overall planning, iniaddition to regular treatments sold globally for daily/current use
*** BBC has reported that treatment will be £2,000 - RM has indicated/alluded to similar price levels in previous webinars.. obviosuly there would probably be bulk discounts but I donbelieve that pricing level will be higher than 1000 USD
***there should be more catalysts (i.e. home trials results, potential additional trials ) impacting the SP before May/June

SNG certainly doesn't have the manufacturing/logistics experience needed - however does have MAP partnership signed with Clinigen and, if EUA is granted, should have a fairly straightforward client base (i.e. governments) so I hope that should make the transactions faster/easier.

There are several other but thought this would help to start with. All of the above is based on my research and opinion - and naturally on phase III/home trials being successful. We all know what happens if they are not so I agree this is still a somewhat risky investment. I just think that the upside is potentially much higher. GOOD LUCK!

CityTTrader... Holgate refers to millions of doses and doesn't mention 'per month' anywhere. That said, he does leave an impression of things being massively scaled-up, sounded very positive to me.

Hi Org30.... that's interesting, will you sell if it comes to £5 and we are still waiting for the P3 results? Thanks

Spinnaker... Great, good luck to us all. Hope we get to £5-6 over the coming months and then beyond if the results are good. Would be interested to know what your upside forecast is if P3 is a success, assume you've done some risk/reward analysis when you first invested.

Thanks!

Hello Spinnaker..

Thanks for your reply. I am also not a big fan of people dropping random, unsubstantiated forecasts on this board and I am trying to be as realistic as possible. None of us have a crystal ball and we don't know whether the P3 trials results will be positive or not ... if they're not we really will probably lose most of our money (hope not, and do think based on everything I've read that we are more likely to succeed). But that's just my opinion and I hope everyone on this board is an adult and doing their own analysis before making investment decisions.
I try to quantify potential wherever I can and if I don't have the data I make assumptions that make most sense to me /scenarios I believe are most likely to happen.

So, I assumed, based on the fact that the UK has so far had about 335k hospitalisation https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare (which is approx. 0.5% of the population) the government would probably want to have this in stockpile for the next pandemic. There will be way more hospitalizations until the end of this pandemic but used this 0.5% population coverage figure as a ballpark.and replicated it across the global population of 1,5 billion (you suggest it's more closer to 1 billion or just under). I'm trying to find out more about stockpiling protocols and understand how that works but difficult to find online.

All of the above are my assumption, very much ballpark numbers but illustrating what I believe to be the stockpiling revenue potential of this company PROVIDING Phase 3 results are positive and show clear efficacy.

I am concerned when I hear people claiming that this company, if EUA is granted, will be worth 600million - 1billion. I think it has WAY more potential and it's always good to try to quantify whenever possible.

DYOR ... GLA

Apologies... stockpiling 5bn/year. :)

Debarred... interesting point of view. There are a couple of parameters that I think might change your forecast.

***Your vaccine uptake forecast is very optimistic. In many developed countries, at this moment, only 50-60% of the population (from what I've read) is happy to take the vaccine

***Some communities (Guardian wrote today), onlybapprox. 30% happy to take the vaccine

***You assumed people would not get reinfected after receiving the vaccine and also - we still don't know how longe the protection from vaccines will last.

***It will take a logistical miracle to vaccine enough people in the developing countries this year - Covid is with us tonstay for a while

***Developing markets and lower income countries will probably have a different tier pricing in place so I would not discard the rest of the world (you only assumed market size was 3× USA= approx. 1 billion people)

***COPD, Asthma, viral respiratory infections - SNG001 has shown efficacy in earlier trials in COPD and Asthma and chances are it will be a broad-spectrum antiviral. COPD market alone is huge and would have made SNG001 a blockbuster drug in its own right.

***Stockpiling : Governemnts around the world have already committed to stockpiling treatments for future pandemics and this is, in itself, potentially a huge revenue stream for SNG. Let's assume that governments will stockpile for 0.5% of population of 1.5 billion people (USA , EU and 500m peoplenfrom ROW,) - that would.mean 7.5 million treatments sold every 3 years. That in itself is £15 billion - £10bn /year.

The above I believe puts SNG in the 8-£10 Billion bracket in my opinion (based on my research and my estimates).
DYOR.

Rumandpoker... are you invested in SNG?

If not it's very useful to visit Synairgen page on Reddit. It is a greatbplace to give you an idea of the science behind SNG001 and also the market potential.

In summary (if P3 results lead to an EUA)...
100k treatments/month... at 2k GBP per treatment = £2,4 billion revenue /year
That puts SNG valuation roughly at £6 billion. SP= £30.

We need a successful P3 and a smooth scale-up of manufacturing/distribution... but if results are good it will be in everyone's interest SNG001 is pushed into hospitals globally ASAP

The above is based on my research... my opinion only. :)

Matml74... a great post, thanks for corroborating everything.

P3 success puts this company at 10 billion + range, purely based on Covid (and excluding COPD potential possibly, pending successful trials)

Manufacturing scale-up is a big hurdle but it is definitely realistic to assume that US government, among others, would assist scale-up due to the gravity of the situation.

Even though it sounds like a lot of money to all of us - this approx. 10 billion valuation is very realistic (after success at P3)

zwart... wishful thinking or you know someone in Langley?