Member Info for PhilGekko

Robins... In biotech investing we are all ready,the moment we buy stock , that things might not go well. With any stock, regardless of how promising it might look.

That said I am holding 4D and not letting go for now.

Btw, still trying to find a crystal ball on ebay :)

I am going to leave this here... for those whonthinknthat biotech sector has lost its appeal...

https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/biopharma-ma-2022-different-animal-drugmakers-coffers-lined-17t

Sang... if 0518 is good... it will be exciting I think even for non-holders to watch and see how things unfold.

For holders it would be the mother of all comebacks... and then some. I have a relatively good grasp of what 4D would be realistically worth in case big pharma wants to bring microbiome on board. Had shares in Kadmon that recently got sold (and essentially was a one-trick pony). I can only imagine what 4D with its scope would cost

Crl123... I get you are down, so am I. But 4D is not a binary play, not by any stretch. I am merely using 0518 as it is presumably the first (and arguably most important) catalyst expected in the coming weeks (according to what the company is saying).

DP and AS invested $2m between the two of them at 1.10. Then they also received options (along with IM and the new CFO). So they have a lot of vested interest in getting this back on track, at least I believe so.

As always, it all comes down to how good the data is... everything else is just market forces. GLA

Sang... when I say II - I mean any fund/serious investor looking into innovative biotechs. There are plenty of those boutique funds, especially in the US. And there radars would cover companies that Merck is investing in.

So once those guys jump in I think they start making waves.

That's at least my hope if 0518 is good.

Crl123... thsbks, when I say I'm 'just a PI' it's simply to let people know I am not a professional analyst or some hedge fund troll (dropping P&D narrative as instructed by their bosses).

Look at the fundamentals. In my opinion all that matters. We cannot influence big sellers or buyers, they have their strategies and reasons for doing what they're doing. We also cannot second guess their reasons, or assume they know better than us. They make costly mistakes as well, and then have to sell elsewhere to cover (sound familiar?)

If 0518 data is good... we are potentially into something huge. And market forces will react eventually I reckon , and soon enough, because of the intrinsic value of what that trial could mean to big pharma (and cancer patients worldwide, most importantly).

If data is bad - we are entering a world of pain. For sure. But I am also optimistic that these delays don't have to be a bad thing. Obviosuly, like you, I am waiting and hoping.

Again, to reiterate, just an opinion of a PI :)

Hopeingmore... are you OK?

Crl123....thanks for your post, I appreciate you are one of the holders without ulterior P&D motives and share most of your frustrations. Also massively in red, like you, and frankly in disbelief of what market forces have done with this stock.

That said... I would like to perhaps offer some comfort regarding your points 2 and 8 (if 0518 data update is as we hope it will be). And here's why...

IF 0518 data is good (let alone very good /exceptional) the amount of shares that remains to be sold by SO would be very easily hoovered up by a hedge fund/II or pharma (or indeed myself, for that matter).

Because if data is good - recovery would be very quick (just take a look at July/Aug 2020 SP action) and SO would soon become fairly irrelevant for our SP. Our current mcap is a joke, so one of a few IIs getting involved means SP could rocket very quickly. I think if data is very good it could potentially have a shorter route to market alongside Keytruda.. which means likelihood of a licensing deal/TO goes significantly higher... that in itself should impact our SP.

I am expecting 0518 data over the next 7-8 weeks (based on all the recent company communication, hope no new delays).

Let's not talk about what happens if data is not good, it would be very painful.

Usual disclaimer: The above is my opinion as a humble PI, a battle fatigued 4D Pharma holder so do your own due diligence please.

Alicante Dave... Best of luck to you as well. But wait, you don't need luck, you've been right all along :)

At least you are not spreading lies about 4D, you're just dropping random numbers. Fair enough, don't like what you're doing but you're not lying... just shorting companies developing cancer treatments.

Jokes aside.. Good luck. Hope you close your short on time.

Love it...just drop a number approx. 20% below current SP in a subject line so it hopefully stay on as a thread on the board all day , offer no explanation why/where you've come up with this number... and then wish everyone good luck.

Good luck to you too :)

Why do people insist on continuing to speculate about SO? Just serves as a gentle reminder of the perils of investing in DDDD as some 'big bad seller' is still out there. Why would people do that?
In my opinion, just looking at the recent SP movement, despite continued selling there is now finally some buying pressure, and seems to me like retail & potentially a discreet II have recently started slowly building their positions over the last 2-3 weeks.

To me share price seems relatively stable and now broadly in line withe wider market trends but this brutal sell-off, the painful haemorraging we've been subjected to for months now, I think has finally lost most of its bite and is being absorbed by slowing building buying pressure.

So let's stop second-guessing about what the seller is doing. Patient (4D) appears to be out of coma for now and is relatively stable, still very much in critical care but hopefully this is now the beginning of a rehabilitation period.

We had some 'chartists' predicting this would go to low 20s. They are no longer that vocal as they were a few weeks ago. Obviosuly we don't know if some force majeure (I.e. potential war in Ukraine) could torpedo the entire market and drag us down... but to me seems like we have stopped the bleed for now, hope I'm right.

All in my opinion only, as a simple PI and definitely not an investment advisor.

Yes Sang, my point precisely. That's what I am hoping we'll see in future -real volumes on Nasdaq happening, not someone buying by mistake from a wrong ticker.

HRG... we'll someone new would probably be better. RG is not the only big name in the City.

What I'd like to see is someone building a position on Nasdaq. Once Nasdaq investor army gets involved... we could have daily swings bigger than current mcap. Again, we need good data for someone to jump in first

Yes, below 5% we won't know anyways what he's doing. Which is just as well. Next TR1 I am expecting is someone crossing 3%

So much focus on SO... yes, he is selling but buying has started I think... someone is building a position, I don't believe these are frightened PIs, probably someone more serious who's spent more than 4 min on DD. Just one whiff of a catalyst needed here...

HRGGibbon... I agree with you completely. Failure to attract investment when SPnis tanking isnmind-blowing. What is the purpose of being on Nasdaq if you're not going to drive investment there.

CFOnpassed away last year which definitely didn't help. And imho Duncan is not the charismatic person funds nowadays expect to see selling the company. He is I think a good CEO, but is not a salesman. There are many examples if biotechs on Nasdaq which have inferior pipeline to 4D at 5-10x of 4D mcap... just because of how they wrap up their pipeline potential.

All this is super frustrating. Re Blautix.. let's wait and see. But I do need 0518 data to come in this quarter. Or I need them to offer a detailed explanation. Their comms so far has been shocking.

On the fundamentals side I do think they are super strong, but need to get their act together.

All the usual caveats, not an investment guru, just a PI

Microbiome is treated by the ignorant (as well a shorters and those with ulterior motives) almost as some kind of a homeopathic delusional yoghurt-based witchcraft. Incidentally people thought the same about many other medical advancements over the centuries.

But serious R&D/Lab equipment manufacturers even have a product/ equipment range geared and targeting R&D specifically in the Micriobiome space... maybe it's time to start thinking it might be the future??? Probably means more and more of the scientific community is behind it and realising its potential? Maybe big pharma are not that silly to be investing in this 'Woodford' dog' (whatever that means)? Just my opinion, the way I see it.

Which company has the most patents in the microbiome space? Is it 4D? (genuinely unsure, think it is but might be wrong). The above is just my thinking as a PI, don't have any lab experience.

https://www.eppendorf.com/UK-en/discover/academia/microbiome-analysis/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAjJOQBhCkARIsAEKMtO120pm1h1cqa3l9w_gXz9Hj3ldZQ7ci5k2hncFCASiXr7OY1nQSO4gaAhvDEALw_wcB

He meant neutral for us, 4D investors.

But it isn't completely neutral, the good thing about this news is that it puts Keytuda in the minds of standard PIs who might, by association, start taking 4D a bit more seriously than a 'Woodford's dog'

It raises profile and explaines how important it is to Merck's revenue stream and presumably how interested they would be to get any and every combination therapy option onto market.

Crl123... Thanks mate, hopefully makes some people calling 4D Pharma 'Woodford's dog' think twice before dropping their wisdom here

Quick reminder of how massive Keytruda is in Oncology today- please see below from today's Guardian. According to GD analysts apparently Keytruda is worth over $100bn to Merck (no idea re methodology used - assume they mean in terms of commercialisation value prior to patent expiry date). Do people shorting this stock understand what happens if our Keytruda trial is successful???

Those holding... if we are successful and data is good... we will make money while investing in/helping company that is prolonging/saving lives and improving patient lifestyles. Good enough for me.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/feb/09/immunity-boosting-breast-cancer-drug-keytruda-could-save-thousands-finds-uk-research