Member Info for phil01

As they ssy a person hears what he wants to haer and disregards to the rest. It ismentioned in the same video that he states that they have about $1B RFQ pipeline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7PP9JOOuaOI
about 13mins in.

Now for some basic logic. SEE can win absolutely 0% of the open pipeline and still have 60% market share. To estimate in either direction you need to know what %age of the DMS market will involved custom work with the car manufacturers Vs %age that a car manufacturer does not need custom work and are happy to just go and buy an DMS validate part as a component from Qualcomm, Arriver, Voeneer of this world.
For the later type of sourcing it does not go through a bid pipeline, so coming to a conclusion that in order for someone says that SEE must have 60% market share translates to SEE will win 60% of current open pipeline is absolutely logically wrong.

My expectation is that the majority of DMS implementation except for the high end cars, will just buy DMS as a component from these 3rd part Tier1 suppliers, ( again supposition on my part).
Hence SEE may even decide that they are not going to be ding any custom work for OEM, not bid for any pipeline, and still control 50% of market share, all these depends on the volume of work requiring custom fit Vs volume of car manufacturers who are happy to by pre fitted DMS for the Qualcomm's of this world.

Seeing-2020,

You are free to listen to who you like it is your money. But I would rather listen to PM who says that they may not be bidding for all open pipeline. I know I would rather trust someone that is actually managing the company than anyone else from the side lines.

Even basic logic says that even if they win 90% , that is 90% of the ones they actually bid, but you may of course assume that they will also win the ones they did not bid for also. Your money your logic.
Irrespective of what we think the market will move on facts. And currently the market is saying that everything in your head or mine is pure speculation.

Personally posting pipeline figures will not do much for the share price. We seem too impatient and trying to run before we can walk. Pipeline is what is available for every one in the DM space to bid, that does not necessarily mean than it is going to be won by SEE, as such it has not been factored in the broker note. Not to say that Pm also mentioned a question of resources need to go after the full pipeline. So for all we know although there is potential $900M pipeline, they may only be bidding for $300 of those and if they win 40% of what they bid, that again changes the whole equation.
We are invested so we read the tea leaves and assume that SEE will get the majority of it, over at SEYE , the King of DMs, they assume that they will win the majority of it. [Agian I restate that PM did state that they will decide on what level of the pipeline they will be bidding for depending on return on investment as well as resources required. That decision he said they will make in the next two quarters.]

If you are comfortable in your analysis, you are not planning on selling this year, and are willing to wait till end of 2022 when the proof of the pudding will come through in the numbers, Why the impatience. For me even if the price goes to 25p this year I am not selling so i am not unduly worried at current price, it will go up when company starts demonstrating revenue and not because market read some tea leaves which we are reading.

As a Chinese saying goes (paraphrase): 'If you know happiness is in your destination then there is no need to hurry.'
Based on our analysis, assuming we are right, then the end game is assured, so why give yourself a heart burn worrying about the meanderings in between.

RNS on Tue, 3rd Aug 2021 gave the FY21 trading update with expected revenue etc.

All we are really waiting for is for it to be officially confirmed and more importantly the wordings regarding current business background. Also a break down of the results to show growth in DMS royalty licence since they have confirmed the number of cars with DMS this year. That to my mind is the key, as according to PM this will be doubling year on year.

That is exactly the problem. It is supposed to be H1 results not an update.

Maybe just me, but not exactly impressed with results nor the way it is presented.
Supposed to be a H1 result but it is far too verbose.
It is meant to give a summary of key highlights within the result timeframe ; post reporting date high lights and maybe future looking statement and financials. This seems to be a blow by blow account of each and every RNS plus release dates a more than necessary detail of behind the scene attempt to influence policy making. I almost lost the will to live ploughing through these and just have to cut to the chase to look at the financials. A verbose report is always a good indicator that the result have been poor and they are trying to divert attention. Below is analysis of my key take away:
Good:
1. Forward looking statement reconfirms intent to make the Euro 15M this year.
2. Officially confirms the project in France, (even though I already knew that but not sure how imminent it will be).
3. Money in the bank
BAD:
To be blunt the financial results is very poor and very much down on Last year's H1. Will surprise me if they make their prediction of 15M this year.
Revenue: H1 20 = 770,308 H1 21 = 481,720 > down significantly
Administrative expense: Up in H1 21 expected
Loss before tax : H1 20 = 1,846,410 H1 21 = 4,038,562 up significantly

My Final comment:
Current H1 result does not show much progress It will be a minor miracle if he is to deliver Euro 15M for this financial year when he only delivered 400K in H1. that means that almost all the 15M will necessarily be delivered this second half of the year.

My position;
Hold fast in a wait-and-see mode, not adding to my position nor selling to see exactly what transpired but the current set of H1 results do not fill me with confidence. The waffling in the result by making it too verbose, using 60 words where one word will do. This is unaudited so I can't blame their broker for not picking up on this. I will be worried if I know for sure that this was a deliberate attempt to conceal ; redirect attention.

That's just my view. Again logging off and coming back at year end to see where we are.

DerSack, you post does not really address any of the issue raised.
Yes we know the price for exclusivity, that they will grant a lease as these are still stated in today's RNS.
But ALSO added is the issue of fixed dividend share, with no mention on the coupon rate. Putting my business management hat on, I will surmise that the Fixed dividend share was probably for the balance £282,000. So they are in effectively rather than paying the money to Rotunda they are effectively borrowing the money as a loan for a fixed return rate. However that is just me speculating as it is not clear. when it comes to making investment decision I do not like to speculate. I would rather deal in facts. Again if this is borrowing at a fixed return rate then I imagine we could discharge it when we feel and just pay capital plus accrued interest plus penalty.

Unless someone can clarify, then no point speculating about it. I have sent question to the person that should know and if it is not legally sensitive he will clear it up. As stated I am also curious to know what is different about this project, because in all other projects we have retained the OM contract but not in this instance. All these details helps me get a good grasp of EQT operating model and line of sight to profitability.

Some people will sell at the magic £11, so it will fluctuate a while at this level and consolidate a bit till those people have got off the train then it will push on higher. May be within you range of £12-£12.50 pre results.

Good to have news but difficult to know if it is good news or great news without more information. Definitely a great news for Rotunda.
1. Issue of preferential share to Rotunda: What is the rate of dividend on the share; ( yearly rate or quarterly if payment is yearly or quarterly).
2. Do Rotunda give up this share once the plant becomes operational and they start getting 20% of profits or do we continue to service this preferential share as well as allowing them to have the right to get 20% of all profits?
3. EQTEC will retain a portion of the OM contracts implies that there will be another company also who have an OM contract for the plant. How much of the OM contract is EQTEC to retain?
3. Since we are already giving away 20% of the plants profit, it means that when we are trying to find an operator to fund and own the plant, it may provide minor challenge. the operator will know that he is funding to build a plant for which he is entitled to only 80% of the profits.

Just nit picking as I tend to want to know details before shouting at the roof tops about deal quality or moaning about poor performance. At the moment i will go with not a bad deal as I do not believe a CEO will deliberately go for a bad deal, but not sure whether we or Rotunda got the better of the deal.

I am not sure Allenby will change their target until after the Q3 results, which will usually be between 10-15th October. They tend to give a low ball estimate so that they can upgrade it with each result that smashes beats expectations. I am fairly confident that this next set of result will not disappoint.

We may break £11 today. Can't wait to see what the Q3 results in about 3 weeks will do to the share price.

Not really sure what DP has to do to get the praise he deserves for a good job. If he gives a tentative timeline , with qualification that he may not control the speed of events, he is flogged for giving a timeline and missing it.
If he does not give a timeline since others has control of speed of events, he is flogged for not providing timeline.
I am sure that DP is putting in more than 8hr per day on the role and not sitting on he breach sunning himself. Fair minded people will think that that is about as much as we can expect from our CEO....he puts in the work and push as hard as he can from his end. Everything else will fall when they fall. In this deal it is stated that .."....The local partners, ewerGy and ECO Hellas will provide a Managing Director and local relationships .....", hence speed will depend on those that are actually managing the project.

Colin seems to be quite impressed with the Occula development

https://www.linkedin.com/in/colin-barnden-1081376/detail/recent-activity/

His view:
Am assuming there is some big PR push coming to explain it all to the investment community. Frankly this is the kind of advanced technology development I would more commonly expect from Apple, Google or Nvidia, not from some obscure AIM-listed company from Oz.

Not exactly sure but my reading of the RNS is that they are unveiling their 8th generation offering?

I am not really sure what generation they currently have. If I am wrong then it may be just PM releasing an RNS in response to everyman and his dog in this BB asking him to release an RNS.

Bandstand,
Mute point discussing it now since AAA has gone away. Lets just watch and see how it plays out. If AAA list on any official exchange without buying anything else and are able to get a listing price of 80p per share equivalent, remind me and give me your Paypal email and I will send you £10 to have a drink on me.

Boombang,
Surprised you bought. Thought you are an AAA holder who believes that BOOM need AAA rather than the reverse. I personally think that AAA need to buy a solid company before they attempt to list anywhere, else they will get a huge shock with the price that they will be able to list at. They may try again for BOOM or attempt to buy another solid profitable company to give their attempt at listing some gravitas.

AAA has a penchant for raising money for acquisitions, so I will not be surprised if they do a placement and raise enough money to come back with an all-cash offer for BOOM. The longer they wait however the more they will have to pay, Q3 results is just round the corner in less than a month, ( mid October). I expect Q3 result to again beat analyst estimates and another analyst upgrade.

I don't think that they will announce anything at the moment. They have already stated that SEE is in, if memory serves me right, 5 production models with additional 30 models due to come online in the next 2 years.
To me this is just one of the models that they communicated will be coming onstream within the next 2 years so I am not sure if this is a contract extension, [ can't be if they already know about it and communicated ].

At least that is how I am reading this in light of their previous communication regarding additional models that is planned to be in production over the next two years.

They could however communicate the models that have come on stream once it started hitting the dealership.

All they have done is filled the expiration of the waiting period as they progress the Magna offer which is currently the only recommended offer at the moment. Discussion with Qualcomm is also still in effect but until they deem it as being a better offer the Magna process is still proceeding to a close.

Still a long way for this to run. As for breaking up of the business, I don't really think any investor cares, they are getting a purely cash offer, so Qualcomm can do with the carcass whatever they want once they have paid for my shares.

Now I can understand why Cenko has not added any value on the aviation side. From this article it appears that the true value on eye tracking in simulators is still at the trial stage.
AAF installing the tech i their system is not really global validation as you expect AAF to be a patron for Australian Tech.

Hopefully by mid next year there may be an indications that this tech is going main stream in the simulator and aviation space with an announcement of a licensing from L3 Harris. The MOU with them has now been a while without any further news if they are taking the MOU further of if it has not led to anything.

Like most investors, I have god a few wrong over the years. The difference is that I think for myself so if I get it wrong I take full responsibility for my decision and learn from it to guard against making that in the future . it is neither the managers fault nor the guy/al in the BB that said I should buy.

If the management is poor and I invest then I have made a mistake of not correctly appraising the management before I trust my hard earned into their care. If I listened to the guy/gal in the BB and committed my own money then I mentally flog myself for letting some else invest my money when it is me that will feel the pain.

It appears that for some people it is always some else's fault and no accountability on their side. Unfortunately the first rule of investing directly in the market is taking personal responsibility ...else the person should find a fund manager who will make that decision on your behalf.