Member Info for Pharmhall

Yes, Lee does have a substantial following. Although in retirement, I am not too fussed about divis, preferring capital appreciation over which I have more control. Also, even in tax exempt accounts like ISAs and pensions, there is a hidden 10% withholding tax on all dividends, courtesy of Gordon Brown all those years ago! I'm really happy that MSI has a strong balance sheet.

Given that ELIX put out a trading statement on 18 Feb, results should not surprise – Sales >£111m (i.e. above top of guidance range £108-111m); Adj EBITDA £31m; gross cash £7.5m (no debt, all paid down). So it all comes down to the outlook statement. The Feb RNS also stated that January was a record month, so the question is whether business has been affected by all the Trump shenanigans. Overall, I think not and am expecting a positive outlook statement in the morning.

John...my reading of this comment on liquidity is that he is referring to MSI's strong cash position and no debt.

JL...you were clearly sharper than I was on Billington, so am now in loss. I did get nervous when Severfield issued its second profit warning, but thought BILN was better placed, so stayed invested (wrongly!). However, I do like the company and think it will recover later this year. Severfield gave a slightly more optimistic update this morning, so this might help to reduce the BILN losses.

RM...Yes, very much still in BPM. I like exposure to the insurance market, but know that it is specialised. I also know that MGAs (Managing General Agent) take much of the credit (and premiums) and none of the risk, and I see that BPM is invested in several MGAs...that, to me, is knowing the industry/market. I also think the BPM NAV has increased substantially since the last update, but this is not being reflected in the share price. Next known update: Final result to 31 Jan likely 2nd week June.

I'm mostly in cash in US, but did pick up some Marvell in fall out at $50.2. Still think US is hugely overvalued, especially after today's rise. Jackson is looking good, well off its peak.

In UK, I'm almost 100% invested, but will look to lock in some substantial profits if markets continue to recover e.g. Barclays, Aviva. But most of my holdings are in small to mid cap special situations and I think their stories are strong, so awaiting results/news . I think Senior is looking very good below 120p. SRT has moved up well from around 30p to 60p, but I think that this only just the beginning of its story, every time it dips into the low 50's it recovers back to 60p quite quickly. MTI looks good in low 40's.

I have no idea what zero trades are...also, I look very little at trading. I do my fundamental analysis, set a price that I would be content to buy/sell at and stick to that if those targets are reached. For example, I set a 900p buy target on MSI earlier this year and bought when it was offered at that price.

I agree with your comment about recognition of 1H business being booked in 2H, hence I simply do not understand why the brokers have sales lower in 2H than in 1H. But simple errors (in my opinion) like that is exactly what provides the opportunities.

Guys...I have access to Halo (market forecasts) and decided to take a look what is expected, as I cannot get anything from broker (Shore Capital). I was surprised to see that the forecasts are for sales, EBIT and PBT to have no growth and be lower in 2H'25 compared to those reported for 1H'25. Even with declines in the three non-core businesses, the defence gains should far outweigh them, so I do not expect this scenario. It might explain the sluggish share price performance. Let's hope we are right and the market is wrong.

JL79...Not sure how you arrive at your figures and multiples. I agree with the £20m PBT for 2025, but on a 25% tax charge (it was 26.5% in 1H'25), EPS would be 92p (not over 1200p), which puts the shares on approx P/E of 10x, much lower than defence average. On divi, with +2p for 1H, even a flat 2H would give 21.5p, but I think it will be even higher than that with some growth in 2H divi.

I think outcome of strategic review will be released separately, especially if it has important decisions. This would be followed by the good numbers, giving it two bites of the cherry. This would be lost if it is all rolled up into a single announcement (unless, of course, the review is negative!).

Still a big supporter!

I pressed Shelley for online access last year, to no avail. I think we should make a concerted effort again this year, especially since she is now a Board Director and has fiduciary responsibilities to shareholders.

Unsurprisingly, the 1H results were in-line with expectations , given the recent IPO and trading statement. Key is the outlook. With the prospects for increased European defence spending, RCFX his moving quickly to utilise its IPO cash on new Bristol office, more staff (especially marketing and Business Development), new AI approach to defence development. As I have said previously, very good medium term growth prospects and definitely a share to tuck away for the long-term.

In my opinion, there are a few things going on at same time that is causing the drift:

1. When you look at forecasts, there "appears" to be a big drop in sales in 2025. But this is due to the sale of its Consumables division which accounted for £26.4m of sales in 2024. The core business is forecast to grow from £4m in 2024 to £12-15m in 2025. Key question is whether it can get this level of sales traction.

2. Company has recently changed NOMAD and broker from Cavendish to Deutsche Numis. Why was this? Why not add another broker (but retainer costs more). It will be more difficult for PIs to track forecasts now.

3. Cash position. There is no issue here. After the disposal CREO had £31.2m cash. While this will deplete in 2025 (to about £22m), this leaves the shares trading on a prospective EV of just 2x 2025 sales.

Expect everything to be confirmed in results, slated for "April" (was May last year).

I appreciate that some people will have been in SRT a long time and are still cynical. However, yesterday's interims should really change that view. Also, Cavendish is awaiting confirmation of funding for a new order before putting out new forecasts. But I do not think you should wait. Putting the target £84m sales on the same margin as reported for 1H sales (but likely to be better) , and doubling the SG&A spend and financing costs, gives you £17m pre-tax. A full tax charge (unlikely) would give £14m net income, or 5.5p per share. High growth and a strong medium-term outlook should command a 20x rating, but even on 15x gives you 75-80p. As I say, don't wait for Cavendish numbers.

On HILS, I think I will wait for a "bad market day" for an opportunity to buy. Yes, Spring statement will be interesting given her hands are tied. Many of the current sound bites are very anti-labour/union, so the statement might go down badly or cause a lot of angst in the party.

I'm still in WG, not sure why there was a sudden dip late on Friday. I also noted the RC Fornax pop. It will probably take the full year numbers and next presentation to get more people interested, but I am increasingly convinced that company is really well positioned in the new era of major defence spending across Europe.

RM50: Apologies I did not respond to your query about HILS and RNWH. Both have been on my watchlist for some time, but I've never taken the next step. HILS always looked too expensive, especially relative to COST etc and RNWH it was more timing and availability of funds for a new holding. I saw HILS results last week and thought them satisfactory relative to expectations.

Good story !!

Unsurprisingly, given the recent IPO, there was not much new in the release, apart from some new contracts which will contribute to FY2025. Broker seems to think these will be fully additive to the £8m revenue forecast in the Prospectus. I agree that, in the current climate, the know-how and contacts of the management team position this company well for the long-term and the shares should be bought and tucked away. The only item that investors need to be fully aware of is that, based on current forecasts for 2026, the large increase in the number of shares at the IPO will likely lead to a small EPS fall in 2026 - its just the maths - leaving it trading on 11x P/E for 2026. However, further contract wins over the next 12 months would likely mitigate the increase in number of shares .

rm50: i have been a very long-term trader and holder of costain. currently, it is vying with msi as my largest position, and i have healthy profit having taken big position at 40p...but i am in no hurry to take profit as its well positioned, good orderbook, cheap, and i see 150p easily as being nearer fair value. bought kier recently (before results, so losing at moment, but it is also a very safe play for the same reasons.

i used to have bby, but when i saw an employee in my local builders merchant, i asked him how thing were going at bby...he responded "pile of ****!". i relied, "you are referring to the lighting contract in cambridge", to which he responded: "no, pile of **** goes right to the very top. they all have their head up their ar**s!". i went home and sold all my shares in bby as in good profit...then watched the shares fall from over 400p to below 200p as market also became aware of problems. apart from being being bigger, i have never understood why market prefers bby over cost or kier. it happened again over weekend with ic/ft promoting bby.

Ps: I am doing a mini-spreadsheet comparing Costain, Kier and Balfour Beatty. While I think all of them are incredibly cheap and really well positioned for UK infrastructure projects, I think my analysis will show that Costain and Kier (especially following the fall on interim results) are the better options. I'll let you know outcome when I've finished my analysis.

No to buying Senior. I was surprised by the market reaction (positive) to Senior's results, which was unjustified in my opinion. Forward rating far too high to get me interested. I'm a patient bloke and think we will see 140p again, which would be more tempting.

RM50 : You have done well on your trades. I am currently out of both Concurrent and Chemring after big rises in defence stocks early last week. I am watching and waiting for opportunities to return. Am aware of, and have been watching, MTI. I was hesitant on flat EPS for 2024 and Israeli-based, but they have won several new contracts, so should augur well for 2025. Will look for opportunities after results.