Member Info for Pharmhall

The Jeffries event is well worth listening to. CEO comes as quite conservative, diligent and with a very credible strategic plan. One mine generating cash, second comes on-stream early 2026 with 95% of the development cash already spent and two further mines for development in future. Excess cash will be used in the following order : first to cut back debt from $500m to less than $400m (1.0x EBITDA); secondly, window for shareholder returns via share-buy-backs (dividends not mentioned); thirdly, to develop the next generation mines (but this is further out (2-4 years). Very clear objectives with shareholder returns in short, medium and long-term.

https://www.tasekomines.com/investors/events/

Cheers RM

Interesting idea....take a look at my comment 5 mins ago on TKO

A reminder that CEO of TKO is presenting at the Jeffries Conference at 2:50 EST (19:50 BST) today. After releasing good interims along with a positive outlook statement on 6 August, I expect the presentation to go down well with US investors. Only problem is that there is so little stock available, with just one trade today...but that is the opportunity...create demand in an illiquid stock and it will be chased higher.

Hi JL & RM...I, too have been looking at valuation. Because the properties are all part of the ongoing concern for each division, I don't think you can just put a value on them unless they are surplus to requirements (very unlikely) and the operations can be amalgamated into the other sites. The usual approach of corporate bankers is to use EV/sales and/or EV/EBITDA multiples. For an "un-trendy" industrial business EV/sales ratios usually fall in the range 0.5x to 2.0x; and for EV/EBITDA, the usual range is 5.0x to 12.0x dependent on growth rate and cost savings potential for the acquiror(s).

Before applying these multiples to the three non-defence businesses, it should be noted that we do not know the split of depreciation between the businesses, so have to use EBIT rather than EBITDA; also, profitability is somewhat depressed in these businesses, so EV calculations based on EBIT come out low. Applying 1 x prospective sales gives you an EV of £31.5m; applying 10x EBIT gives you £12.7m, with the average being £22.1m.

The market cap of MSI is £199m, take off the cash £27m), leaves an EV of £172m. Take off £22m potential disposal proceeds gives an EV for defence of £150m, or 1.5x sales and 6.9x EBIT. Using Cohort as a comparator, CHRT is trading on 1.1x EV/sales and 10.4x EV/adj.EBIT.

Hope this helps.

Well spotted...9-12th September.

What are you talking about. It was the manufacturing scale-up to satisfy customer demand that caused all the problems over the past two years. Improvements to the manufacturing process to reduce wastage and improve yields has been the key focus of the last 12 months. Recent signals (via RNSs) have been encouraging and progress is being made. In 2Q'25, the average yield had risen to 72%. Cracking the high volume yields to get consistent and sustainable yields of 85-90% to satisfy in-market demand is where profitable, cash generative, growth will be derived.

Company already has a loan in place for the capacity expansion, and is using either factoring or up-front payments from customers for immediate working capital needs while it improves yields. This seems to be working well. Given the hugely dilutive last funding round at 1p per share (albeit it did make a substantial amount available for existing shareholders to participate), I think management will be wary of a funding round until it has proven to the market of sustainable high yields. If it can show the latter, any funding would be done at substantially higher prices and will be well received and supported. My fingers remain crossed.

JL...Over the years I did very well on Diageo, originally bought as Grand Metropolitan; however over the last couple (+) of years, I have been observing changing drinking habits, particularly amongst the younger generations, so have been completely out, as I see this as completely changing Diageo's growth prospects. Also, I may have a somewhat chequered view as wife is a hepatology consultant!

Hi RM & JL....I think Costain is a really safe play at these levels. My holding had got very large, so I sold 50% at 160p . Even with the recent fall it is still a significant holding, so I am with you on this one.

I'm looking at two stocks in particular, Avingtrans (AVG) has results on 26 Sept and I think they will be really good (it had a trading statement recently), but its what company says about outlook.

I also want Ashtead Technology (AT.), but will not overpay and it has had two jumps recently, taking it away from my target in-price....I will just have to remain patient.

Thanks for your useful input and explanation. Don't get me wrong, I am a long-term supporter of FTC, but I will set myself a target price to buy at (lower than current levels) and simply be patient. But as the saying goes, never does any harm to lock in a profit, so I'm happy with my trade so far.

JL & RM...I agree regarding food inflation. Our diets are limited in variety, but only high quality (caring for aged parents)... so increases are obvious. I reckon our food shops are up about 40% and that is with growing most vegetables, salad and fruit ourselves (FYI, we eat 1-2kg of tomatoes per day, even more when we make soup! RM, your rise in bills to the tune of £100-150 a month made me smile (LOL)...our is more like £100-150 per week. Govt has no idea and totally out of its depth.

I like FTC; however, I recently sold into the run up to 170p, purely on valuation grounds. It was starting to look a little over-heated on 28x 2025 EPS. But these were other factors that swayed me:

1. I don't understand why sales are forecast to fall in 2026 (albeit very modestly)

2. Why the EBIT margin is expected to half (approx) in 2026

3. If all is so good, why has broker a price target of only 194p (ca.24p upside when at 170p)

I will continue to monitor, but until I understand points 1 and 2 better, I think its best to stay away.

I, too like FTC; however, I recently sold into the run up to 170, purely on valuation grounds. It was starting to look a little over-heated on 28x 2025 EPS. But these were other factors that swayed me:

1. I don't understand why sales are forecast to fall in 2026 (albeit very modestly)

2. Why the EBIT margin is expected to half (approx) in 2026

3. If all is so good, why has broker a price target of only 194p (ca.24p upside when at 170p)

I will continue to monitor, but until I understand points 1 and 2 better, I think its best to stay away.

I'll also post this on Filtronic board

Repeating their usual practise of maximising tax benefits, the directors have sold beneficial interests to move the same quantity into their SIPPs and ISAs. At least it shows some faith in company prospects.

Except that Monday will be a Bank Holiday....so Tuesday!

JL & RM...I much prefer Cohort. All the analysts loved it after recent results and the shares rose substantially to over 1750p, which left it trading on about 32x prospective P/E, which was far too rich for me. It was also too rich for the CEO and four other directors, who lobbed out 560k shares for £9.7m. Since then it has seen a declining trend, but at 1200p its a whole new opportunity and much more reasonable (ca.22x ).

Myers has been a consistent seller recently and good that he no longer has a declarable stake (it might not be 0%, it is simply below the threshold of 3%). An investment in EAAS is all about the future and all results up to and including 1H'25 (released in July) bear no resemblance to what might come in FY. All recent statements and outlook are positive and company appears to be cashflow positive. Worth a small punt.

Glowacki....whereas STX records all the sales in the US, income in most other territories is only the royalty stream. It's partners record the sales in those countries, so the RoW income bears little reflection on in-market sales.

Cavendish has just dropped results research report on to website. Management focused on "...improving market strength and commercial traction for the business, as Shield remains on track to turn cash flow positive by the end of 2025...". Forecasts maintained which suggest STX will hit cashflow +ve by end of year. Target price maintained at 23p.

Spantrout, I'm sorry, but I think you are totally wrong. No new shares are issued each month to Lanstead. Lanstead subscribed and paid £1.875m for 50m shares in the last fund raise – recognised in the RNS on 21st Feb. On completion of the fund raise, IMM simply gave Lanstead its money back and Lanstead pays IMM back in equal monthly instalments of £0.268m (£1.875 divided by 7) over 7 months from an agreed start date, with a reference price of 5p. If the share price at the end of the month is 2.5p, then Lanstead would only pay £0.134m for that month (£0.268m/2); conversely, if the IMM share price were 10p, it would receive £0.536m for that month. No new shares are issued, they were all issued in February.

On 21st Feb, Lanstead held 80m shares (16.13%); on 21st May, it was down to 64.9m (12.99%); today it is down to 44.9m (8.99%).