Member Info for Peterashbeck

The weald as a whole has not turned out as any of us would have wished it to.

Well done to all those who took profits when things were at their highs. For the rest of us, lessons learned for next time.

It is definitely one to buy and leave but not necessarily for as long as you may think. This needs to break 3p first but then it can really motor.

Decent end to the day. I wonder what it will finally close at? Not that it matters in the long term but for some reason closing on a blue day makes me feel better, even if I have no intention to sell at the moment.

racandfz - yes, of course you are right.

Getting something as fundamental as that wrong rather ruins the gravity of my post I am afraid. I should have been more patient!

Maxreinier, I agree with much of what you say. This will definitely bounce back and as we ease out of lockdown both the highs and the lows of this share price will get higher.

This game, as Warren Buffet wisely said, is about a transfer of wealth from the patient to the impatient. Often the impatient are not temperamentally suited to investing anyway and they frequently lose money on what they naïvely term as "investments" but I think that with greater clarity they would agree were actually "gambles".

The impatient do no research. They invest in a share because of what they read on a bulletin board like this. They do not buy early when the price is low, they buy late when the share is already on the top movers boards. They get spiked out, they lose patience and they sell at a loss before the price rises again. They come back for a second time when the frenzy is back and they start to believe the hype on these boards that the price is not at the top but it is just the beginning. The price still goes up and they hold all the way up and all the way back down again. Then they blame somebody else for their losses and try to put together an action group to sue the company. Then the lawyers take even more money off them before they finally give up and decide that they are not temperamentally suited to investing anyway.

The moral of this story is: do your own research and don't be impatient.

Any action group trying to sue companies over share price crashes on AIM are on an absolute hiding to nothing. They never get anywhere and the only way they can win is by not spending any money in the first place.

The lawyers love it when these naïve bumpkins arrive. I've seen it dozens of times. They come in with their made-up ideas of how they have been robbed and of course the lawyers tell them that they have such a great case that they are going to do the job on a no-win-no-fee basis. But this is just salesmanship. Fast forward a month or two and the same lawyers that promised that the case was cast-iron and wouldn't cost them a penny suddenly start demanding a small retainer for their work, just to cover costs. The bumpkins cough up as the retainer is only small and it is divided between many people. Fast forward another month or two and a further request for money arrives, this time bigger. If they pay it a third arrives etc etc.
And all this is before they even come to the killer - that should it ever go to court the barristers are going to want another large chunk payable up front and with no guarantee of winning.

I can remember reading dozens of times about shareholder action groups being formed when the shareholders have lost money on their investments but I cannot think of a single time that they have been successful . It is just another way that the foolish are parted from their money.

The spread is far to big to be investable at the moment.

Yes, excellent post RS2002 - recommended.

Flip of a coin with one side being sky-rocket and the other being merely steady growth is no bad thing.

I'm going to join you in that.

I always find it very suspicious when people refer to the MMs having no choice but to move things up. It always seems to be said when a share price is actually moving down.

Oil and gas never shuts down. It will 100% have been producing.

I have to say that I am very impressed. This is two market days in a row that Zenith have announced very significant news with major potential for the company’s future and the thing I like about it most is that they are two such different deals.

The Tilapia deal is a real opportunists bargain and is a good sign that AC is really on his game when it comes to squeezing other companies for their assets in the post-Covid world. Bringing the price down for the same asset from £1 million to £200k is a real example of that and is a clear case of getting a potential bargain from a distressed/uninterested competitor as they change management and direction.

The Sidi El Kilani deal is a completely different kind of deal but possibly even more important for Zenith. Not only does it bring some much needed production revenue to the company portfolio but it also shows that AC can sit at the same table as the really big boys and be taken seriously. The Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company is about as opposite to AAOG as you can possibly get and has almost unlimited cash and vast amounts of assets. It takes a completely different negotiating strategy to do a deal with them as instead of picking up a bargain from a distressed competitor, you are instead trying to pick up a bargain that is too small for them to care about. They also have to take you seriously enough to feel that they are not wasting their time. AC now has a relationship with them and has even said that he is looking forward to doing further deals with them in future.

In terms of the assets themselves, they compliment each other beautifully. With Sidi El Kilani we have an assets that will immediately give us production revenue. We have paid £500k for this and it generates gross revenues of $15 million (which at 22.5% is £3.37 million to Zenith). Obviously this will be down somewhat in the short term but the really important thing about this is that it makes ZEN one of the rare small cap AIM oilers to actually have any production income at all.

The Tilapia deal is completely different. This is an asset that needs money put into it but it also has the potential to be a massive company-making deal that was once marketed as a $100 million market cap. It is miles away from generating that money but the stake in the asset is big enough that it can be farmed out bit by bit at higher and higher valuations while still leaving ZEN with a big chunk of a big number. It is a “jam tomorrow” deal but there is a lot of jam potentially on the plate.

So the two deals put together make a lot of corporate and commercial sense both for today and in the future. It is a nice balance of an asset that will bring in revenue and an asset that could be company making. This is exactly what I was referring to last week when I talked about finding companies that will outperform the market as the recovery kicks in. This is definitely one of them. The BoD have been busy when others are resting.

Well it has been a very interesting day here today....

It started off very positive with the AAOG news and the fantastic discount that the board had negotiated on the purchase price of an asset that could be company making. However, the day got even more interesting when Brokerman Daniel leaked that ZEN are also in the process of purchasing the Tunisian assets of the Kuwait Foreign Petroleum Exploration Company which produce 700 bopd.

If this is true and is pulled off for a sensible price, then it would be quite a week for Zenith Energy and I would expect the share price to increase substantially from here when the news is formally announced. It would certainly be a very good sign that this is one of the stocks that is set to outperform the market and multibag when the global recovery kicks in.

Like I said the other day, the price here is going to rebound significantly when the global recovery starts to kick in. Today we have a 20% rise just on the hint that America is starting to get back to work - and even though cinemas will be in the final tier of the lockdown loosening.

Imagine what is going to happen to this share price when things start to actually genuinely loosen up globally? I am not sure that this will hold the gains today as (IMO) it is just early morning optimism - but for me this is a sign that this share is a surefire recovery play and will rebound like gangbusters when restrictions start to be lifted in the US and UK.

GLA

Like I was saying the other day, as the global economy moves into recovery mode the stocks that are going to bounce back the most are the ones with a significant flow of news in the pipeline. A rising tide will lift all boats, including companies that are basically directors lifestyle cos. However, those stocks that are really going to reward their shareholders the most are those with boards who have a coherent strategy and the balls to take advantage of the chaos that is out there.

This is not just true of share investment, it is true everywhere. If you look at what Ole Gunnar Solskjær said about Manchester United the other week it was basically (and I paraphrase) "Manchester United are going to take advantage of this global crisis. We have money and we are going to take advantage of those who need cash by hoovering up players who would previously not have been available to us on the cheap".

Essentially, ZEN have just done exactly this to AAOG. They ahve taken advantage of the Covid crisis to renegotiate the existing deal to the massive benefit of ZEN and it's shareholders. It is a buyers market out there and especially when you are the only customer then you can name your own price as long as you have the balls to do so and the money to back it up.

The fact that ZEN have pulled this off is a very good sign - not just for the Tilapia oilfield deal itself, but also for the company going forward. Quick and ruthless response to changing economic situations is exactly what I want to see in a company management and if they can keep this up ZEN will definitely be one of those stocks that has the potential to multibag as the global economic recovery comes online.

The price will improve as time goes on. 96 million shares sold today and the price remains static. A good sign that.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52275201

Fair enough Andy - apologies.

I tell you for a fact that I would far rather live in the USA under Trump than China under Xi. In the former you are constitutionally entitled to freedom of thought and freedom of speech. In the latter if you say the wrong thing then you disappear. It is acceptable to their people because they are no longer poor, but allowing them to export their brand of ruthless dictatorship globally will result in a worldwide hell. look at the way they treat their own people and then think how they view westerners. The general population are already making it clear how much they hate Africans: https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2020/04/coronavirus-africans-china-targeted-200413185723311.html