Member Info for Penguins

Adrian / the most recent set up account posting incessantly

A desperate underwater trader hoping for a P&D on anything to sell asap offers advice

Go long

on a project that won't be up and running until the end of the decade, and UKOG mention meeting Southern UK's 'predicted' storage needs in 2050 - a lot can happen in nearly 3 decades..........

There have been lots of bullish tweets since this venture was announced about meetings, joining talking shops, progress - if ExxonMobil get involved they won't be funding UKOG in their O&G E&P ventures. nor as an equal partner in any venture. I'm sure anyone who has had a serious job will have had dozens of meetings where either promoting something have had 'positive discussions' that lead nowhere or have been positive reviewing opportunities, with no intention of taking anything on- if anything just finding out what's going on - Sharks and prey comes to mind.

I suppose for UKOG just getting a meeting with Sumitomo and ExxonMobil counts as a positive achievement as everything else hasn't lived up to expectations and most have failed.

The best outcome of what is a project with huge up front costs would be if UKEn was bought out and SS went with it, which I suspect has been the plan all along.

Adrian,

I've already told you on 27 November at 22:41 - it's called research nd it's from the latest PPP Annual Report -- but not the version RNS'd.

I wondered whenyou'd turn up here with what at the time was one of your at least two accounts running at the same time - yet another permanent ban breaking of the rules.

If you think that the lowest price trade of the day is a buy then maybe saying you're new to this reflects the level of your understanding - though you're not new.

Vwap today based on the published trades and prices is 0.0238p.

Seems someone is keen to see an ever lower SP

It looks like the arrangement of the first and second tranches of equity shares was/is to give the shares to YA / Riverfort who then sell them and then at some point decide on a conversion price which could be a vwap from the previous 15 days.

It looks like this is what happened with the first tranche selling during July and choosing the conversion price in early August. UKOG have yet to RNS the conversion price of the second tranche, but YA / Riverfort will still have about £1.5mm of loan to convert when they ‘ve finished selling the equity shares, though at least the conversion SP and amount should be RNS’d soon after it happens rather than what appears to be happening.

Seems an incredibly good deal for YA/Riverfort, plus they get 4.5% of any conversion value added to the loan, and one third of the number of shares converted in warrants – priced at 140% of the 5 day vwap prior to the conversion date.

CreamCrckered,

Depends on your definition of 'speaking' - SS has not done an interview for a long time - and those he's done have been just a bit of PR with soft questions.

As for the RNS they're as uninformative as they can be, as you say could be days, weeks, months getting the Pinarova guns to the site - no indication from the company.

They've only had £2,500,000 of the £3mm - and that's a CLN loan, aka death spiral financing- as would be any extra. UKOG have been uninformative as to when shares have been converted and thus issued, the first tranche of equity shares appear, because of the price, to have been converted in early August with forward selling starting in late July which coincided with the start of the 'drift down' from around 0.06p, although total shares in issue only updated recently, . The second tranche of equity shares have been added to the total shares issued, but UKOG haven't mentioned at what price they've been converted at - or are they not 'converted' despite being given to YA / riverfort.

Not sure of timescale but looking at the 3 month graph the SP has definitely drifted lower from 0.04p to 0.025p in that time.

I agree, 'no oil' in Turkey is not true - but is there any commercial oil in the licence. Even Basur, which was trailed as a lookalike to the E Sadak field to the south-west doesn't get a mention any more - now testing an interval in the PInarova well that wasn't a primary or seconday target, that might have had a valid (no flow) test already and isn't a recognised reservoir in the area that had an oil odour whilst drilling that wasn't even mentioned in the next RNS after it was drilled, just when the main targets failed. Not sure that sounds the most encouraging build up to the test.

It will be interesting to see, in the likely event the test is a failure, how UKOG spin it.

It always helps to read and remember what is in an RNS even if it was more than 6 months ago:-

PPP to fund 100% of a new crestal infill production well, designated Horse Hill-3 ("HH-3"), to be spudded after the completion of a PPP 100% funded ~12 square km high-definition 3D seismic survey (the "Farmout Programme"), subject to an aggregate cap of £4.6 million.

Sort of shows the poor quality of the journalism.

Hmmm,

'soon' - don't hold your breath trish. Could be anytime from tomorrow to Xmas 2025 in over 2 years time = 'soon', though I'm sure it won't be that long as everything happens so fast in Turkey.

We've seen that word used plenty of times on here by Adrian in his dozens of accounts - but of course those posts are gone, but then there's always twitter:-

'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Feb 7, 2023

#UKOG Am expecting news of a farm out soon at #Loxley. #Igas is the word on the street

Fairly recent, nearly 10 months

Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Feb 1, 2022

#UKOG looks like Pingo and his Green scum bags are up to their deramping BS again on

@LondonSouthEast this evening. Scum bags. 100 bopd production figures from the OGA coming very soon. Production will be double September imo'

Over 100bopd 'coming soon', highest average OGA / NSTA figure since then was 63bopd (not double) in October 2021 after the September shut in, not to mention Adrian's fantasy tales about other posters - 'Pingo and his green scumbags' - and he wonders why he's not liked........

'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Sep 20, 2021

#UKOG Morning all. I just got banned again for predicting this RNS. Shame on you @LindionSouthEast Viva UKOG! Water injector soon.'

'soon' - still no water injector more than 2 years later.

As for HH. The Supreme Court's list for next week – no Finch, and according to you that means no news of the PPP farm in, nor the injector that’s been years coming.

Tuesday 5 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

Nasir (Appellant) v Zavarco (Respondent)

Lord Hodge, Lord Hamblen, Lord Leggatt, Lord Stephens, Lady Rose

Wednesday 6 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

R (on the application of AM (Belarus)) (Respondent) v Secretary of State for the Home Department (Appellant)

Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Sales, Lord Hamblen, Lord Stephens, Lady Simler

Thursday 7 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

R (on the application of AM (Belarus)) (Respondent) v Secretary of State for the Home Department (Appellant)

Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Sales, Lord Hamblen, Lord Stephens, Lady Simler

So Adrian, which will come first - Perforating Guns or Supreme Court decision, and will either be before 2024 - 2 more weeks of court sittings before they break up.

The question wasn't criticise someone else's estimate of when the guns will be on site, it was when will there be sign off - good question.

I don't know how complex it might be considering the site is within the 'Kurdish' part of Turkey, but as you're so critical of another's estimate, presumably because of your extensive knowledge of Turkish regulations regarding the transport of explosives, perhaps you can enlighten us as to your estimate of when sign off and then arrival of the perforating guns will happen at the Pinarova site?

Of course you won't be here when the guns do arrive.

The Supreme Court list for next week:-

Tuesday 5 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

Nasir (Appellant) v Zavarco (Respondent)

Lord Hodge, Lord Hamblen, Lord Leggatt, Lord Stephens, Lady Rose

Wednesday 6 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

R (on the application of AM (Belarus)) (Respondent) v Secretary of State for the Home Department (Appellant)

Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Sales, Lord Hamblen, Lord Stephens, Lady Simler

Thursday 7 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

R (on the application of AM (Belarus)) (Respondent) v Secretary of State for the Home Department (Appellant)

Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Sales, Lord Hamblen, Lord Stephens, Lady Simler

Just hearings next week. Maybe UKOG can get the perforating gun paperwork sorted and finally get round to findng out if the first Pinarova test was invalid or not - perhaps it's time for another tweet about the Portland gas storage project.

Looks like pboo's turned up to help out - That's so sweet.............such loyalty to Adrian who'll turn on you just because he disagrees with you.

Saying things backwards is nothing new for you.

But while you're here perhaps you can explain why you were happy to repeat the Weald Action Group's ridiculous claim, as if it was true, that Horse Hill would produce 452 tonnes of oil every day for 20 years but conversely also argued that the precipitous decline seen in HH-1 was 'normal' when it is far from it. UKOG were quite clear in the planning application that the export of oil would decline.

You also keep coming back here to repeat your claim that UKOG haven't drilled for 4 years because of the legal callenge yet you also claim that when a well is drilled it will be a gusher - so would rapidly recover drill costs and generate good cashflow even if a few years later the planning permission was found to be 'unlawful' - UKOG could string out appeals, and chances are the law would be changed.

More telling is that in the highly likely event the challenge to the HH planning permission is defeated even then UKOG aren't drilling - unusually they've farmed out (well they hope they have) an appraisal well for 49% of the licence, suggesting it's in fact risky, for £4.6mm which is probably not enough to pay 100% of a 3D and HH-3 - and the need for 3D first suggesting there's structural risk as well as risk of high water ingress as seen in HH-1 and HH-2z.

As for Pinarova presumably you're hoping, like ocelot and insidious, for a P&D on news of the perforating guns arriving on site, arriving in Istanbul didn't cause much if any interest though.

The next news will be the results of the test. The swab test of the Hoya, where they had oil shows in the section below the Germik, failed to recover any oil. Nobody has any idea what UKOG are hoping for from this test, not much, maybe another sample - with only a smell of oil while drilling, and emulsion being displaced from the well when the casing was set after drilling, but no shows whilst drilling nor any mention of either the smell or emulsion as being associated with the Germik until the well reached TD with no success.

Yet you go on about successful wells elsewhere in different formations as if it's relevant to this test. UKOG hasn't mentioned if the oil was from the same source as E Sadak (or not) despite it being an objective of the oils geochem work.

Insidious,

Is the 'good' news, you're presumably hoping to sell on, the arrival of the perforating gun at the site - maybe not waiting for the test to be successful as UKOG didn't consider the 'strong oil odour' was even worth mentioning at the time - and instead tweeted a picture of the oil that returned to surface (without saying where in the well it came from) when they announced the swab test that was performed in the Hoya following 'proper' oil shows - though that failed to recover any oil, and TD logging presumably showed zero pay to test.

With UKOG it certainly is never too late to jump on board and be a part of this fantastic journey as since 2018 every time it leaves the station it breaks down, the rampers jump off and then it's towed back.

Then there's still £1,500,000 of CLN's outstanding - despite Adrian (as his last avatar) suggesting YA & Riverfort have somehow dumped £20,000 worth of shares every day since before the loan was announced inJune - mind you he was happy to repeat a claim by the Weald Action Group that UKOG were going to produce over 3,000bopd for 20 years as if it was true.

You posted:-

'JimSnicker

Posts: 23

Price: 0.025

No Opinion

RE: Oil experts 🤣how many bopd is 3.3 million tons of crude over 20 uears? Today 00:18

Penguins.

So you are calling Sarah Finches partners liars.

The figure comes from The Weald Action Group.

And you call Sanderson and UKOG liars. And Adrian and any body else who says things you dont agree with. You need tobget some help imo. You are losing it.'

Not sure who is 'losing it' - but I don't believe the Weald Action Group are stupid and the numbers listed below are from the planning application for the maximum number of HGV movements per day and how long each period of that number of HGVs would last at Horse Hill. As UKOG are currently running about 3 tankers a week, including water tankers, after about 44 months of production (this chart 8 a day) it just shows how ridiculous this chart is.

However what the Weald Action Group (WAG) seem to have done is ignored any decline (just like rampers have in the past - now your're all over it!) and calculate 16 x about 200bbls per tanker ignoring days of no tankers (sundays and BH) and calculated tonnes from that - which equals about 3,200bopd or about your 452 tonnes per day.

To me deliberately ignoring what's in the planning application they're disputing is lying.

In fact even using these numbers and not declining the number of tankers each period and not allowing for no Sundays or bank holidays or shut downs for maintenance results in 35,520 tankers, of course even that's wrong but it's an impossible maximum ignoring how decline happens. Whereas it looks like the WAG has taken 16 tankers x 20 years x 365=nearly 117,000 tankers.

Here's your calculation 'The self proclaim oil idiots . Sorry experts . Dont want to tell me the awnser. So i will give it instead.450 tons times 7 barells is 3150 BOPD.'

Strangely close to 16 tankers every day for 20 years - funny only recently you were claiming the horrendous decline at HH was 'normal' - who's the 'oil idiots'?

From the planning permission documentation, Transport Statement, page 8, HGV movements (in and out per day):-

4 Months 16 HGV

24 Months 12 HGV

48 Months 8 HGV

60 Months 4 HGV

104 Months 2 HGV

I see you've gone again - maybe next time you're here you can explain why you support figures from what you call 'green activists' that are so ridiculous and make you mind up as to whether decline happens or not at Horse Hill - UKOG do even if they got the speed of it completely wrong.

Still believe that one person has stopped UKOG drilling wells to produce loads of oil, the sort of amounts I assume you're dreaming of would rapidly repay the cost of drilling.

Much more likely UKOG didn't want to drill - even after they win in the Supreme Court they don't want to drill - luckily DL has turned up to super ramp any drilling.

HH hasn't been flowing all the time since 2016. A few hours in 2016, then 2018/19 intermittently during the ewt, then in 2020 it started production at more than 300bopd. By the end of the year it was producing an average of about 100bopd. You don't seem to understand that that's not normal decline for a decent clastic reservoir. Starting at 250bopd the worst case in the 2018 CPR would have meant 100bopd after year 3 (not after 6 months) based in part on a review of analogue wells and fields as the 2016 testing was only a few hours.

I keep telling you that these protest groups are using the highest figures to scare locals into being nimbys, and get greens to protest.

The figures the protest groups are qoting are from the planning application created in 2019 after minimal testing and assumed wells would produce up to 1000 bopd with gradual decline.

The reality is that following testing and production UKOG didn't deepen HH-2 to log the Kimmeridge, didn't sidetrack into or dual complete HH-1, and very soon after production started purchased minimal equipment used for testing to continue production of the Portland.

As I posted earlier UKOG have avoided publishing a CPR and they've not published any predictions for production from HH despite generating a decline curve - but they have put an NPV value on HH-1 production based on the decline curve - and that's £800,000 - seems they've lowered their expectations since 2019.

You have no idea of the background of posters.

But the expertise of the professionals at UKOG is probably on par with FTSE100 companies, posibly they have already worked in one, the difference is the quality of acreage the company can obtain, and the spread of risk.

An 'operator' like DL probably saw the opportunity to promote the Kimmeridge knowing there would be oil shows minimum once the Sherwood was a fail in HH-1. The original testing program didn't expect flow from the Kimmeridge or significant flow from the Portland. The flow from both was probably a surprise and possibly both attributable to more fracturing than usually seen - which may bring good initial flow rates but significant and rapid decline - but once the genie was out of the bottle UKOG weren't going to issue anything negative - leave it to posters and tweeters to extrapolate the chosen extracts of reports and flow rates to extrapolate. Why no CPR since the atart of the ewt.

Doesn't mean that the professionals in UKOG weren't aware of any of the realistic outcomes suggested by 'experts' on this board - just that the company keeps choosing to RNS the most positive or advantageous 'interpretation' or as you put it 'investigating the signa.

Anybody can express an opinion here, just some are more likely.to be right than those that try and denigrate experts, and as vernonya points out anyone claiming every well will be successful is already ignoring the odds.

Ocelot,

I suspect most Angus investors would prefer Angus to drill another well at Saltfleetby a field that definitely exists, than waste money bailing out UKOG's pre planned farm out of Loxley that's been available for about 17 months.

BP,

But the #1 apologist for UKOG would like everyone to believe that UKOG hasn't drilled more wells at HH because of the challenge by one 'greenie' to the planning permission that has remained in full force since Septembe 2019 when it was granted.

The return on the claimed (though unrealistic) minimum 720 bopd per horizontal well would in 3 years have been easily £10,000,000 per year income at $60 oil (like the rampers I've ignored decline) - and the challenge has shown how easy it is to 'game' the system and stretch out the legal manoeuvres - even losing UKOG could probably continue producing for 3 more years before every avenue for appeal had been tried, then maybe apply retrospectively for planning permission putting the onus on SCC to assess the wider implications which could take more years..........

The planning application and those wonderful flow rates were a result of the early days of the ewt, maybe after the ewt there was a more realistic understanding of the Portland and Kimmeridge that they didn't bother to mention to 'investors'. The water influx was just the final nail in the coffin - or was that also anticipated, it always was a possibility with a fractured reservoir.

Hence no more wells, no development of the Kimmeridge, and now farming out 49% that UKOG paid £300,000 plus per percent for (Tellurian's 35% was priced at 342,000 per percent) for less than £100,000 per percent to PPP.

King Midas in reverse....

And Adrian I don't hope Pinarova, or any well will fail, it has failed already in terms of its objectives. The test of the Germik was conjured up when all else failed and I don't expect it to be successful partly because of that and also because the first test may not be invalid.

UKOG originally tried to pass off the emulsion now claimed to be from the Germik (how can they be sure where it was from as it was displaced by the casing being set) as being associated with the Hoya interval, that was below the casing point, that they were going to swab test and then had to use it to support the Germik testing - caught in a blatant attempt at deception - even DL (who you thought knew what was going on) was fooled.

You posted:-

'Adrian Adrian Adrian. So that if i reply to you . You can all get on to admin and say it must be him he is replying to the name. FFKS get a life and let some real investors speak for a change. I does make you all look a bit scared btw :)'

A permanently banned poster who is a trader, not an investor, setting up 2 or 3 accounts in a day looks desperate.

It's easy, just lie and say you're not Adrian, you've done it before - does that help, after all it isn't just that you set the sunmoon account up today and waited until after 5 o'clock to go full Adrian that gives the game away.

You posted:-

'Its ridiculous to accuse Alladin and UKOG of just drilling a well for no goid reason than to get paid'

Pinarova was drilled for a very good reason – it was cheap. According to AME the cost is carried by UKOG who probably wanted to drill because nothing else would have happened in their licences this year and they needed news. The tale of shothole oil and the amplitude anomaly kept the Resan licence dream going. AME were planning to shoot some seismic to the north of the licence in 2023 which isn’t as glamorous as drilling. Did they hope that the Kezer well ‘oil shows’ and flow of water with an oil cut might be repeated only 400 metres away at Pinarova, and they could mess around with testing and maybe even get an oil flow figure, however pathetic. Of course the carrot of a deeper accumulation has been emphasised as a back up after failure.

The possibility that the small guns failed to penetrate the casing was a chance to spin out Pinarova.

You posted:-

'Its a good move while UKOG awaited planning appeals on Loxley and Horsehill'

UKOG entered Turkey because the scale of HH-1 water ingress and continued decline was about to be revealed by OGA production figures, HH-2z being overwhelmed by water had already been revealed in the interims at the end of June, though they were still talking about possibilities other than just using it for injection. Without the Basur distraction (deception?) the SP would probably have collapsed.

As for you having a ‘good feeling’, how many times have those good feelings turned sour as even HH hasn't been anything like as successful as you've hoped.

Adrian,

No doubt there's been forward selling, but they were given 1.3 billion shares straight away, though UKOG failed to update the number of shares in issue then, and failed to inform the market of the conversion price when they were converted.

They're not the only seller, and sells ultimately are matched by buys. Most days they've probably not been able to sell more than about 20 million shares, and some days much less with the odd 50 to 100million day when there was news and/or P&D attempt - and as time went on that represented less and less cash 'converted'.

I reckon 21 July represented the start of selling - with the conversion price of 0.0505p for the 1.3 billion shares agreed around 1 August.

Since then about 93 trading days - about 30 days less than about 60mm trades so no YA / Riverfort sells, 6 days they might have managed about 75 million and 57 days of maybe up to around 30 million, say average about 20 million - that's about 1.5 billion shares sold - near enough the 1.3 billion of the first tranche of equity shares. Even if they managed to shift double that (which I doubt possible) and cleared both tranches of equity shares they would still have £1,500,000 worth of convertible loan notes to convert, even at 0.03p that's 5 billion shares - and that's without the 4.5% add on, the warrants (which will be at a higher price) and the £500,000 due February.

If you disagree perhaps you'd better trawl through every day's trades and add up the 'possible' YA / Riverfort 'sells'. I don't believe they've averaged selling an average of 50 million every day (average price say 0.04p selling £20,000 worth)

But your question was how many left to sell - and that's billions and billions....

Insidious,

Thanks for the tip - will you be selling before the results of the perforating though?

Adrian, you postd:-

'How much have YA left ?'

Loads - billions and billions - but it's presumably Riverfort and YA.

But the RNS is not entirely clear - they said the first and second tranches of the equity shares have been 'delivered' and the first tranche (1,300,000,000 shares) was converted at 0.0504p. But although 'delivered' the second tranche of equity shares seem not to be converted (1,424,487,652 shares) as UKOG haven't mentioned a price.

So there seem to be 1,424,487,652 shares yet to be converted, plus whatever's then left of the £2,000,000 still to be converted, plus £500,000 worth of loan delivered before 17 November.

Assuming a conversion of the second tranche of the equity shares happens at 0.026p there's about £1,500,000 worth of shares plus the 1,424,487,652 second tranche of equity shares that, assuming there isn't a CLN RNS about to be released.

Could easily eventually be (with the February £500,000 added to the loan plus the 4.5% added to the loan for each conversion plus the 33% extra warrants) at least another 11 billion shares issued unless the SP rises

I suppose if number of accounts on LSE is equivalent to the number of times someone has got something wrong (don't know if that's true for BP though) you would win with dozens of accounts - and dozens of times your predictions have been wrong.