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Adrian / MMoriah,

You didn't just mention the wrong well, the whole post was about the wrong well because you didn't know which well it was that yesterday's PPP's RNS was about.

From the start of your post:-

'They had to shut the well on because of covid. A lot of the initial fluids were probably kill brine used to shut in the well. They been removed by the look. So yes excellent oil flow rates imo'.

The Chalk Talk 1 well was shut in in July 2022 because production had dropped to about 15 to 20 bopd, not covid in 2020.

and just to be clear which well was shut in in 2020 you then quote PPP, this is the last bit:-

'when forced to shut in our City of Gonzales #1 well due to Covid in 2020.'

Hardly only 'mentioning' the wrong well.

Here's the title of yesterday's post:- 'Pennpetro Announces First Oil Trucked from Chalk Talk 1H Well in Texas'.

As you say the well has cleaned up - funny when you were quoting revenues from 500bopd because or the initial 'clean up' rates PPP were quoting of over 800bfpd that you didn't take into account that they were unlikely to be representative of production rates. Who were you trying to kid - 182,000bbls in a year

Of yesterday's average flow rate 50bopd is required before the company makes a positive net cash flow and if Millenium have retained 25% revenue interest (as they have in the Whistling Straits 5 well) that would leave 25 bopd foŕ net income.

Hopefully the next workover which will be of CT 4H, scheduled for December, will yield a similar result, and by then let's hope the figure for the stabilised production rate at CT 1H remains in the 3 figures and the decline rate when calculated is modest - and you can work out which well they're RNSing about.

Toptrader,

you posted:-

'Got a feeling it’s profitable from 30 bopd?'

Yet in the PPP annual report they stated:

'The Group expects to generate modest positive net cash flow when oil production regularly exceeds 50 barrels of oil per day.'

Whilst the about 100bopd is not a bad result it is an initial production rate so the question is if it's fallen from the approx 400bopd, plus a similar amount of water, 8 days ago to 90 to 110bopd now what will it be next week, next month as PPP determine the decline curve.

How good a deal for PPP, and not so smart for Millenium - though they did have 2 years of production data, remains to be seen.

Adrian,

You posted 'Looking good to me.' But ignorance is bliss isn't it.

Testing a formation never mentioned as a target, and only tested when the actual targets had nothing in them - although the Hoya section tested did have oil in cuttings rather than an oil smell. Not sure they could know where the oil that returned to surface came from when the casing that's caused the problem was set.

Of course a 24 week delay is nothing to UKOG who were going to drill HH-3 in 2020 and convert HH-2z in 2022.

On the UKOG board you posted this thread title:-

'PPP farm ing in. They got an RNS out. Great flows'.

In fact they're busy and going to spending money on a workover rig for a Texas well - 'Workover rig for PPP's Chalk Talk #4H well booked for early December'

No mention of the farm-in which was meant to result in the Horse Hill obligation 3D being shot this year, PPP estimated it would cost £350,000.

Last week as 'baxtobax' (account since deleted) you were calculating that this well would produce 500bopd continuously - about 182,000bbls a year because they released an initial flow rate of 840bfpd with a 50% water cut. That was 30 October - about 8 days later it's 90 to 110bopd, no mention of water cut but mention of decline curve.

It's a good result but they need 50bopd just for a modest positive cash flow:-

'The Group expects to generate modest positive net cash flow when oil production regularly exceeds 50 barrels of oil per day.'

Still at least they acknowledge the likelihood of decline - not sure UKOG ever mentioned it for HH - and certainly not so prominently.

This well 1H and their next workover target, 4H, were practically given to them by the operator, Millenium. Not sure if Millenium retained a revenue interest as PPP only mentioned working interest when these wells were taken on (100% but they are paying $10,000 a month fot the facilities,) there's a mention in the annual report that suggests the net revenue interest may be the same as for the hardly mentioned Whistling Straits well at 75% but it isn't clear that these wells are included.

As for look at my posting history - please do, especially further back when the activities I've discussed have come to a conclusion - I was going to put fruition but that seemed inappropriate as for UKOG it was always failure to some extent.

Insidious,

It's the 7 inch perforating guns they're expecting - and it looks like they had forgotten they had 9 5/8 inch casing - from the RNS:- '7-inch perforating guns, capable of fully penetrating the well's 9?-inch casing' - couldn't even proof read and check what casing had been used 9?-inch - they just don't care do they.

As for not long now - 'is expected in around 4 weeks once the guns are on site'

You're assuming that 'in around 4 weeks' is from 13 October' not '4 weeks once the guns are on site.'

Yet another vague UKOG RNS. Let's hope your interpretation of the RNS is right though.

HH1AN2,

'once saw 3 oil tankers turn up get filled and leave' - what you're describing is the 'tanker trick' did you post it on this board, or put a link to twitter - or did one of the others?

and even if it wasn't you taking pictures you were happy to pass on the 'news'

'tankers 30 Nov 2020 14:35

Great to see there's tankers bk at horeshill let's hope they keep coming.'

and what did Adrian think:-

'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Nov 30, 2020

#ukog #Horsehill Tanker trick is on imo. Rope a dope Tony and Wealdoilers falling for it I'm looool. Placing soon?'

Adrian,

Of course you don't want a spotlight on your gaslighting about you and your 'mates' participation in the tanker trick - nor do you want anyone warned about the unreliability of UKOG RNS by bringing up examples of the past.

Suggest if you're going to criticise someone for inaccuracy about people you know (but luckily most don't) you should get the speed right, it was 30kph - and who else cares apart from you, Adrian, who took what video or picture - the intent was the same, manipulating the SP.

But then you spout utter rubbish on here day in and day out trying to stop the SP rot because you've made bad investment decisions . But you definitely haven't got a clue about other posters (except those in your gang who you like as long as they're joining in your ramping) and no idea about O&G E&P. But you're permanently banned so shouldn't be here anyway day in day out spouting your bile and rubbish.

The tanker trick was acknowledged by you and it was about SS depending on you and your pals posting pictures and commentary about multiple tankers leaving the site on the same day in the hope posters would pick up on it and equate it to daily production. This sometimes included waste tankers and maybe a few times empty or partially filled tankers.

Of course your inability to be civil means you even managed to get banned on twitter so not only is your history here missing but so is all your pre 'davethedrill1' twitter BS when you were even more gullible.

Adrian,

I'm not a 24/7 oil and gas basher. Just because UKOG has failed and failed again to achieve any of its claimed outcomes, with me and others predicting that failure, it isn't bashing - it's not only an honest opinion it's also been right not just your ridiculous ramping on hopes rather than kmowledge.

Whereas over the years you've constantly (except when you've sold and want the price to drop) promoted outcomes that have proved to be wrong.

With PPP beware initial rates for a well that has produced 55,000bbls of oil over 2 years and was so depleted that it ended up producing 15 to 20bopd. Depending on the recharge mechanism the pumped rate with about 50% water could drop very fast - we'll see. Definitely a red flag if PPP are coy about rates and what they represent - something Adrian should be very aware having been fooled over the years by UKOG RNS with a variety of flow rates obscuring what was happening.

Ibug,

I've had the same message recently when I've checked but it didn't coincide with any upgrade. But it did happen before in 2022, and then it was OK again. Whether that will happen again, who knows. Pity if it doesn't as it will perhaps tell more about Pinarova than UKOG's prepared to say - just like Basur-3 when AME put 18 July 2021 for 'completion' while UKOG didn't update on the well until August.

It's that sort of deceit by omission (rather than lies) by UKOG that certain posters would prefer not mentioned.

I'll leave this as well then for Adrian:-

'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Nov 30, 2020

#ukog #Horsehill Tanker trick is on imo. Rope a dope Tony and Wealdoilers falling for it I'm looool. Placing soon'

Easy to find just search on X - (trick) (davethedrill1) - there's plenty more about the non-existant tanker trick.

Ocelot

Which they have never used despite being organised in 2021? Any ideas - subject to terms do you know the details of them - it's many multiples of the mcap which means any shareholder would be wiped out. At least if HH-3 is a dud, and no company farms out something it believes has no risk, PPP will have trashed itself as well.

But pboo I'll just leave this here:-

'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Oct 15, 2020

#ukog Which one of the eyes will get drawn in to SS Rope a dope tanker trick first.

My money is on Doppy Tony or Postman Pat ;)'

Looks like your mate believes in it.

HH1AN2 valiantly pointing out it's worth a punt because there will be news eventually.

Not because the pinarova test is likely to be successful or the 3D will definitely lead to PPP drilling HH-3, or even that the Loxley farm out will happen, both essential unless UKOG has a massive raise, or if not in Loxley's case lose the licence and finally the Portland gas storage ready for 2050, maybe. Should be putting in planning soon.

But wasn't UKOG going to start site preparation for Loxley before year's end?

Interim report June 2023:- 'is anticipated that site construction will commence in the second half of 2023'

There are 2 months left but waiting for winter to do groundworks is not a great idea - or maybe like the HH-2z conversion that they claimed would be done 2022 it's not happening, what would that say about the farm out happening?

Adrian,

Still drunk in the morning?

Many times I've been accused of posting BS to baffle.........then it comes true.

But giving examples of past problems to illustrate what can go wrong is not living in the past - it shows that certain situations can, and do, repeat themselves - the oil industry depends on analogous examples.

Unconstrained open space contouring is quite often proved wrong when more seismic is shot - even Loxley has dodgy closure to the east because UKOG has forced a saddle between two seismic lines - is that why they don't want to shoot seismic until after the drill - the HH seismic is obligatory and time is running out and it looks like no more wells sanctioned until it's shot....is that why no more wells have been drilled since the FDP?

But you quoted an Alba RNS from August 2019......which was just after UKOG had a report done by RPS in June 2019 that had 1.4mmbbls net 2C contingent resources that UKOG eventually used in their table of resources in March 2021 21 months later (footnote 6) instead, but probably not in preference, to the billions of barrels of OIP they so favoured listing.

Otherwise what that report had in it UKOG characteristically never published but soon after your August 2019 Alba RNS (and after the RPS report) they didn't deepen HH-2 to log the Kimmeridge, and they stopped mentioning the HH-1 sidetrack into the Kimmeridge, or even dual completing HH-1.

As for horizontals - they'd be mad to drill a Portland horizontal after HH-2z encountered water conduits at both ends of the horizontal - the cost that PPP are expecting to drill HH-3 is probably just a deviated / slant well into the Portland - it will be interesting if they deepen that to log the Kimmeridge. Maybe you've forgotten that Angus test of the Kimmeridge where they encountered overwhelming water in the Kimmeridge - looks like UKOG got lucky with HH-1, but as they've never RNS'd anything of any substance about the Kimmeridge (I know living in the 'passed').

I realise that plenty here live in the past as if the planning permission that's currently under scrutiny was written in 2018 is anything but a fantasy - I prefer to consider the actions of UKOG - and what's happened, or not happened, since.

Even the water injection may not be problem free, hence perhaps the reluctance to do it. Injecting into a fractured reservoir into a thin layer fairly close to a producer is not without risk. It certainly won't act as much of a sweep before arriving at HH-1, or it may find a quick path through the fractures.

They robably hope there's some 'baffling' between the wells, though that might restrict pressure support

Looks like desperation when Adrian calls you up to help out with his version of filibustering.

But it just shows ignorance when you post this ramping rubbish, did you get it off Adrian?:-

'If the 3d seismic is done over horeshill, the drill that follows will surely hit the sweet spot and be a much better producer than hh1 ever was'

Good try but to start with there's the possibility the seismic removes the updip closure that HH-3 is targeting - it looks like that's exactly what happened at Basur with the target for Basur-4 - and like Basur-4 the HH-3 target area contouring is in the gap between seismic lines. The target is a lot nearer the bounding fault than HH-1 and at BB UKOG wanted the sidetrack to be nearer faulting as they expected fracturing to increase, does that equal more possible water conduits.

...and there's no chance of identifying minor fracturing likely to be water conduits.

The sweet spot in the Portland at HH, as described before HH-2z was drilled, is a zone with two thin layers with better porosity and permeability seperated by a shale - and the zone that UKOG described as producing the lions share of oil in the HH-1 ewt. The HH-2z well was steered within this interval - I suppose any vertical or 'slope' well will intersect it, but they won't be trying a 'horizontal' within it after HH-2z.

and Turkey - of course news not results.......as always the news of something about to happen not the outcome.

As for Adrian's Finch challenging since 2019 - that's 4 years of UKOG not claiming they weren't drilling or repurposing HH-2z (for 3 years) because of the legal challenge - but watching as water cut increased and oil decreased with seemingly no desire to better explain to pi what was going on with production - with a workover that included reperforation to improve production that made things worse in Oct 2020.

UKOG ran off to Turkey when they realised the game was about to be up when the OGA published the first month with significant water production. They had already revealed at the end of June that HH-2z was a dud and shut in for a 'long term pbu' (40 months ago) - but kept hopes that it could still be 'stimulated' or side tracked - though strangely a pump used for injection was spotted on site earlier in the year.

Their 'mates' Xodus, of 720 to 1080bopd fame, had a dodgy farm out - were UKOG so desperate to distract from the HH bad news that they grabbed it without proper scrutiny, or didn't they care?

UKOG probably hoped that it wouldn't be possible to find out how deluded their claims were about transformational recoverable oil with unjustified comparisons to the Kurdistan fields when next door was a field (E Sadak) with wells that appeared to decline even faster than HH-1 (from monthly production totals in scout reports) and were difficult to place even on a field already drilled multiple times.

The sham was exposed here when a poster discovered that the scout reports for Turkey weren't being stored securely - and then they drilled Basur-3 which managed - like some E Sadak wells - to completely miss any accumulation. It's only been downhill since then with remapping Basur apparently removing any drillable closure and deciding the Resan part of the structure was too risky - with the Pinarova fiasco only compounding the disasterous entry into Turkey.

For ages I've posted that UKOG should concentrate on Horse Hill where they've actually found some oil that will come out of the ground but without the hype that it would be anything other than a small scale operation. Even that would be far better than Turkey with oil smells and an amplitude anomaly that UKOG failed (deliberately?) to check out with AVA / AVO. As for Basur - Resan either UKOG failed to properly question AME about E Sadak or misrepresented what they knew.

The question is how risky is drilling another Portland production well at HH that UKOG are prepared to farm out 49% of all future production, except that from HH-1, in a 2 for 1 deal costing £4.6mm - with 7% being given for the estimated initial £350,000 for the 3D (cost according to PPP).

As for a Supreme Court win not being priced in I suggest you look at the muted price action around the Loxley decision which was also expected to be a win. Anybody buying after the RNS on the attempted 'pump' and holding will be seeing a 50% loss. Sellers on the pump who bought below about 0.061 could have made modest gains.

Ocelot,

'Hopefully, a successful conclusion to Finch v Surrey CC will help to clarify matters quickly.'

I suppose just like the Loxley decision? I wonder who posted this in August - 'The most likely near-term triggers for volatility are: 1/ Pinarova-1; and 2/ Loxley.'

As for Angus and Balcombe they're probably looking for any excuse to not do anything.

Hoping4,

Don't hold your breath for the development that was envisaged in 2018. The CPR which only assessed the Portland, was based on very little data and a very different map to the post HH-2z mapping - for example Collendean Farm is now mapped in the same fault block as HH-1 and HH-2z was expected to be shallower than HH-1 was deeper. UKOG haven't presented new volumatrics or any forecasts despite having decided, based on a decline curve and any anticipated savings (water injection?) that production from HH-1 had a NPV(3.86) of £0.8mm.

But that development won't be happening, only DoD ( and DL, Adrian and a few posters here) are pretending it will to garner local support from nimbys - and DoD is probably where the Guardian got it from. UKOG ran off to Turkey when HH started looking dodgy.

and if you think I'm being negative it's probably because you're being too positive.

......and.

'Planning consent remains in force and lawful production continues at the Horse Hill site in which the Company holds an 85.635% interest.'

What's against the company's shareholders is not progressing even the HH-2z conversion, but then they even managed to spin out getting permission from the EA to do that ro years by not getting on ŵith obtaining g permission and then slowly performing the work to get sign off for injection. In June still waiting for it, not the Supreme Court decision.

Another Adrian parody account posting on PPP and UKOG........desperate.

So this was BS in the March RNS.

'Planning and environmental consents remain in place for a further 4 production wells at Horse Hill.

3D seismic acquisition is currently targeted for H2 2023'

No words of caution about ongoing legal challenges possibly preventing progress.

As for the PPP farm in we know it wasn't agreed by at least one of the minority shareholders in HHDL, perhaps because the low cost of entry for 49% of a field indicated that even an appraisal well was risky at Horse Hill - though that's pretty obvious following the result of HH-2z and the near catastrophic decline of oil production in HH-1 whilst Adrian on twitter was pretending production was improving because he saw a few tankers in December 2021 / January 2022.

Horse Hill is not old. HH-1 has been on production for just over 3 1/2 years but within 18 months production it had dropped to about 60bopd, 20% of the 300bopd UKOG claimed for March 2020. That's not decline - it's a collapse.

So PPP's farm in is initially to shoot 3D that they were going to do in H2 this year - no mention of not doing it because of the Supreme Court case before PPP was suspended and the HHDL minority partner/s wouldn't agree it.

But there's a good chance the culmination target of HH-3 might disappear with the 3D coverage as it's in a gap between the 2D seismic lines - just like Basur-4 which after the phase 2 seismic is no longer mentioned.

And in this sentence 'if the second tranche of equity shares were converted at a vwap of about 0.08p would mean they are now issuing 2,424,487,652 shares for only a bit more than £1million.'

the vwap should be 'about 0.028p' as I posted earlier not 0.08p.

Should be 'So...... the June RNS has the £2million as the first tranche' not 3 million.

Having another look at what the £3million funding RNS said trying to understand what's changed (and possibly why) since the June RNS - noticed a mistake in my last post - the warrants are issued at 140% of the converted price so for 0.03p that would be 0.042p.

So...... the June RNS has the £3million as the first tranche - and mentions the 1.3billion shares as 'equity shares', but no mention of a second tranche of equity shares.

It appears as if UKOG expected the 1.3 billion shares issued to cover up to just over half the value of the £2 million loaned - 'which represent between approximately 37% and 51% of the value of the First Tranche' - but that's a different first tranche in the June RNS '£2 million receivable no later than 2 days after completion ("First Tranche")' from the first tranche in this RNS - 'The Loan's first tranche of 1,300,000,000 [shares] has been converted by the Investors at an average price of 0.0504 pence per share'. That as I posted earlier should equal a repayment of £655,000 - but UKOG said about the £2 million loan 'the balance of which now stands at approximately £1.4 million'.

So it looks like they've invented a second tranche of 'equity shares' (1,424,487,652) to enable the equity shares to cover just over 50% of the loan - at 0.028p that would be (as I posted earlier coveniently about £400,000 - meaning the 2 tranches would be a bit over £1million plus 4.5%

As for warrants the June RNS mentions - 'In respect of the First Tranche the Investors will be granted 1,125,895,598 warrants' - which should represent 33% of the number of shares expected to be issued to pay off the £2mm which would mean they expected to issue 3,411,804,842 shares in total - if the second tranche of equity shares were converted at a vwap of about 0.08p would mean they are now issuing 2,424,487,652 shares for only a bit more than £1million.

Looks like they did all their calculations based on a SP of about 0.06p - they must have been reading this board and expected 0.06p to be the bottom!

There's going to be a lot of shares sloshing about to suppress any rise if they convert the 1.4 billion shares at about 0.028p.

Evening Adrian,

I've been expecting you from PPP. after 5pm............does that mean, as it says, it will be 4 weeks after the guns are on site? - to test an interval that was ignored, with worse indications than the section of the Hoya that had the failed swab test, until the amplitude anomaly was drilled and had nothing in it.

Speak the truth - hilarious.