Member Info for Penguins

Adrian,

Not sure your opinions are too reliable when it comes to court decisions:-

'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Jun 4

#UKOG Thursday Dunsfold / Loxley appeal in court

If UKOG win the SP will fly !'

Firstly that was a hearing, nobody would win or lose, but when the decision was announced 20 July the SP didn't fly, unless you mean like the Red Bull competition where they 'fly' off a pier, and what happened to the Igas (now called Star Energy) farm in?

'Adrian The Fool on The Hill@davethedrill1

Feb 7

#UKOG Am expecting news of a farm out soon at #Loxley. #Igas is the word on the street'

....and no mention it was delayed because of the longing legal challenge.

BP

Of course this and most RNS issued by UKOG are't written to inform - more written to deceive the mug punters and worse enable the rampers :-

'The flow test results are outstanding, demonstrating North Sea-like oil rates from an onshore well,” said UKOG executive chairman Steve Sanderson.'

What's curious is someone posting it now when it has been so thoroughly discredited. UKOG has such faith in the results of the next HH well that instead of raising cash to drill it (or avoid spending money elsewhere) they want to farm out 49% - if they really expected North Sea flow rates they wouldn't be farming it out.

So that brings us to PPP flow rates. A well shut in for 16 months has an improved flow rate from when it was shut in. Anyone who followed UKOG through the HH well test will have seen this on a much smaller scale - with shortish shut ins, usually while another layer was tested, followed by resumption of testing - then an initial rate RNS'd, sometimes half hour, sometimes instantaneous, maybe even a whole day then maybe a volume or an average over a period of time - but rarely (once iirc) a final rate - before the next shut in. Analysis of the numbers almost always suggesting a decline - sometimes rapid.

So now there's been a reasonable month's production PPP need another, then another, etc, and the next well to do the same.

PPP had an opportunity to say something about the current CT #1H flow rates in today's RNS, they didn't - and they've not mention water cut either since the October RNS. It may be nothing, but too often what companies omit in RNS is more important than what's put in.

Only just now got around to reading the Alba RNS, they don't sound too happy:-

'The UKOG announcement, of which the Company was not given prior notice, states that: "?further to its announcement of ................'

Looks like MR S is stepping on Alba's toes - what was the cash to Alba for last week if it wasn't to ease the way to today's RNS.

Did UKOGot mention the quid pro quo was they were about to grant PPP a 6+ month extension having already ignored the end of the previous 6 months allowed to complete the deal from 28 March. Is Alba not happy that everyone will have to drop 49% and expect UKOG to contribute a bigger share.

Now it looks like wait and see if PPP can save up enough cash to pay for the deal. Notice that despite the RNS about the rig arriving on site in the US for the next workover there was no mention of how flow rates of previous workover of CT #1H were going so far in December, and they've still not mentioned the water cut since the very first flows of about 50%.

I was so worried about an oil and gas exploration company not having enough funds for the Portland gas storage project. So it's a relief to know they're still trying to farm out their 'flagship' production whilst still needing cash for Loxley (site prep H2 2023 regardless of the farm out but not done) as there's still no takers for the farm out despite the High Court judgement going their way (see to remember posters claiming the farm in would happen once that was cleared) but do carry on funding, perhaps at 100%, the dead horse flogging in Turkey.

Happy days!

Trish,

'Is all of this a distraction away from the Basur well that once looked so promising?'

Surely not, 2 deceptive non-RNS in a few days, you may say that - I couldn't possibly comment.

Maybe you're learning to spot the UKOG RNS BS methodology,

'It looks as if HHDL's non-controlling interests (principally Alba) have now agreed to the proposed farm-in by PPP'

Did anyone think that the term of the conditional binding term sheet wasn't being extended anyway. The first 6 months was up at the end of September.

But where does it say the minority partners have agreed anything apart from extending validity of the binding terms sheet if this RNS is to be believed 'The farmin remains subject to the completion of the formal farmin agreement and necessary regulatory consents'.

If the minority shareholders in HHDL had signed up to the deal surely UKOG would have mentioned it - though maybe the payments to Alba and Doriemus got them to agree to allow this to happen.

By halving their interest in future production presumably UKOG will have to halve their current 'intangible' assets (that ocelot likes to trot out as if they exist) for HH - so over £5mm down.

With PPP and ocelot repeating the Kimmeridge BS from 2015, and the 2018 HH Portland CPR volumetrics which was before the ewt started and then 45 months of Portland and a radically different map produced after HH-2z was drilled, it shows a level of desperation only matched by ocelots inevitable optimism about the Pinarova test.

Still no:-

'R (on the application of Finch on behalf of the Weald Action Group) (Appellant) v Surrey County Council and others (RespondentsR (on the application of Finch on behalf of the Weald Action Group) (Appellant) v Surrey County Council and others (Respondents)

Monday 11 December 2023

There are no court sittings

Tuesday 12 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

Secretary of State for Business and Trade (Respondent) v Mercer (Appellant)

Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Hamblen, Lord Burrows, Lord Richards, Lady Simler

Wednesday 13 December 2023

10:30am

Courtroom 1

Secretary of State for Business and Trade (Respondent) v Mercer (Appellant)

Lord Lloyd-Jones, Lord Hamblen, Lord Burrows, Lord Richards, Lady Simler

Thursday 14 December 2023

There are no court sittings

Friday 15 December 2023

There are no court sittings

HH1AN2,

'Same half dozen posters day in day out talking down the company and SS, could there be nothing better to do ?'

Well I suppose SS has done such a great job - he couldn't have done worse if he'd put £50,000 on every Euromillions and Lotto draw since mid 2015 (about 1,800 draws) and still, from £100,000,000, have £10,000,000 left if he'd won nothing (0.04p per share).

Well it's better to post what's likely to happen than keep on registering new accounts day in day out, posting incessantly (probably all weekend) and being wrong all the time, and then see all those posts deleted because you're a banned poster - like your 'mate' who'll turn on you should he disagree with you.

Then there's ocelot convinced forever that UKOG is undervalued, filers almost everyone because burying your head in the sand is the best way to know , what's happening - and then the SP drops - now moonlighting from his backing UKOG to helping out YA / Riverfort - 'Need to see volume of 500m, 1bn or more.'

It will be next June/July before the reality of this 'payout' to partners is shown as not being from profits but funded by UKOG - but regardless of the details of what's gone on it will make no difference to the 'group' accounts and ocelot will know that - the only real change being spending £100,000+ on an unnecessary payment to Alba and Doriemus - for what?

The other tactic, if they know nothing about the company, or maybe don't want to look stupid by predicting success (or is it there's nothing positive to say) is to just criticise posters for choosing to post, or make up a story about them being anti-oil, greens or nimbys.

Funny you're not objecting to the thread title that suggests that UKOG is getting £675,000 when in fact the headline should be UKOG/HHDL repays £100,000+ of debt to Alba.

I realise that a lot of posters don't want to see thought out posts and discussion about UKOG and what is probably happening - do you not agree it's unlikely HHDL has £800,000 cash just sitting there waiting to be paid to their shareholders - yet there's Adrian acting as if it's 'free money' for UKOG when it's just recycling the cash from UKOG to HHDL and bck again - and then a good chance it will be needed back to HHDL - whilst in reality over £100,000 has exited the group accounts - though of course it has reduced the debt to Alba and Doriemus.

He's also 'guessing' that there's plenty of equipment on site now, and last week was saying the guns would be there soon -where's your objection to that - in fact any post with an opinion - ie most posts, though some explain the basis for that opinion. Perhaps you don't realise this board isn't solely for posters to criticise other posters, but actually to discuss UKOG, which is what I try to do.

Ibug,

Looking at HHDL accounts I'm not surprised the auditor needs a letter from UKOG saying that any cash HHDL need we'll supply.

UKOG doesn't RNS cash transfers to HHDL so for all we know UKOG 'loaned' HHDL the cash just before it was needed to repay the shareholders - ca £800,000 only to get back £675,000

Is it an inducement to Alba and Doriemus to agree to DL getting 7% of the licence - with more once the 3D is shot and a further 42% of equity in HH is up for grabs?

Looking at the latest accounts for HHDL just taking Turnover, less cost of sales and administrative expenses, and ignoring impairment of nearly £3mm, there was a loss of about £346,000 in the year to September 2022. I doubt there's been a significant turnaround in profitability so it's almost certain that the cash HHDL is doling out has come from UKOG at some point, so a net reduction of £100,000 in the group cash, plus whatever they've given Doriemus.

Usual smoke and mirrors from UKOG.

Ocelot,

When the book value is 90% intangible assets that only exist because of the huge amount of cash the company has spent drilling hopeless wells - but still claims something might turn up to avoid writing off the expenditure in the accounts - then I'd be cautious about their conversion into any tangible assets.

Ocelots graciously including only 50% of intangibles in a value per share of 0.075p doesn't take into account UKOG's record, of converting intangible assets into tangible, with huge write downs every now and then to the intangible assets as they finally have to acknowledge project after project is a lost cause. This doesn't bode well for the current valuation of intangibles - or as I would put it money wasted chasing dreams. UKOG don't detail the composition of the intangibles tally except for an amount for HH,but presumably Turkey will be one of the other main 'cash spent' inputs, so if (when?) Pinarova proves a dud they will be keen to find something (anything) else to investigate to avoid having to write off the cash spent in Turkey, an accounting sleight of hand that seems to reward chasing lost causes.

Ocelot will be well aware of the unimportance of this payment, but companies don't 'recover' just because their mcap has dropped, there has to be a good reason and at the moment it hasn't been proved there is anything in the pipeline that will be successful, if anything everything that has happened suggests the opposite.

Pinarova trying to test again an interval with a smell, HH - UKOG showing no inclination to drill since 2020, and Loxley so far no takers for the pre planned farm out.

Looking at twitter and financial reports it just looks like UKOG has lost interest in its core business and is now primarily interested in an infrastructure and utilities project still in gestation that looks as if it isn't commercially viable without subsidies, and will be years before being operational. UKOG ran off the Turkey for faster return on their investment, the Portland gas storage project certainly won't be doing that.

This is just HHDL following their committment to repay all shareholders debts in proportion to their shareholding - as ocelot pointed out the repayment to Alba could be an inducement to agree the PPP farm in.

But in the case of UKOG and HHDL it makes little difference, it's like you or me moving money around bank accounts you're no richer. UKOG could this afternoon transfer this cash back plus the money paid to Alba, to HHDL without putting out an RNS - in fact UKOG's consolidated accounts would look worse having paid out cash to Alba.

Bizarre:-

'Perhaps the £ total traded today shows the share price has fallen too low?

Agreed, there are 23.8bn shares in issue but that doesn't explain why the current share price should be 0.027p.'

On the contrary, the low volume probably reflects an expectation that it will be possible to buy for less and given the bid almost everyone selling will be selling at a loss with just the possibility a tiny few making a tiny profit.

What explains the mid share price of 0.0255p/mcap of 6.43mm (which is still nearly twice the value of tangible assets - £3,761mm), is that HH is producing about 50 bopd and dropping with an increasing water cut - and the market doesn't believe claims the other O&G projects are transformational in acreage that hasn't and probably won't deliver.

Trish,

Well didn't Adrian suggest 'soon', though his soon stretches a long way. It may be way more than just 'sign off'. If it was simple why wasn't the perforting gun on site earlier in the week and on twitter last Thursday.

Still there's the opportunity for the WWTBOOTOTW gang to show up tomorrow - I'm sure they'll want to.

Insidious has admitted not selling on the 2017 rise to 10p - should have read and taken notice of some of those negative posts about the projects - especially the chances of the Kimmeridge at BB coming good, even the 'X' ramper sold out at over 8p - though probably exhorting others to buy until the moment of selling, perhaps part of the reason insidious didn't sell believing the BS - but all those posts and tweets are gone.

Ocelot is stating the obvious - 'Almost all investors in UKOG are holding' perhaps missing out - 'because they are so underwater and the shares are practically worthless so it isn't worth selling.

Although almost every time there's a placing ocelot hopes they've gone to sticky hands - YA / Riverfort don't fall into that category, even ocelot knows that, they are most definitely happy to sell at lower and lower prices bringing the vwap down as it increases the profit on previous sells - win-win for them, lose and lose more for investors catching the dropping knife again and again - though they must be frustrated by these relatively low volume days and value of trades considering the number of shares in issue.

This on the day the latest CLN was announced:-

'Taken the bull by the horns, securing funds earlier than anybody expected, kept that one well under wraps.

Effectively, a protracted placing. Avoids an initial one-off hit to the share price but likely to have a medium term depressive effect.

As the luckyone has remarked, let's be having those 7 inch perforating guns and some more positive news.'

Another interpretation could be that UKOG knew there would be no 'news' for months, and it would be easy for YA / Riverfort to profit from crashing the SP.

As for 'It seems to me the more the usual suspects try to talk the prise down the more SP rises!' from 'Itsastart'.

I'm minded of this from a post of mine Tuesday - 'Adrian / the most recent set up account posting incessantly'

and predictably a total lack of self awareness. How many years have rampers, sorry positive posters, like Adrian, been trying to push this moneypit uphill only to find it's ended up at the bottom of the Mariana Trench - celebrating 3 days of rises after just over 4 months dropping from 0.0585p, although the bid has more or less stayed the same so now the spread is 12.5%.

Although you've posted on this board for years I'm not sure I've ever seen a negative post from you while the SP has collapsed and you've consistently criticised those that have pointed out, before it happens that at best UKOG won't achieve what they claim and failure is likely.

Either they've been lucky, UKOG has been unlucky or like those being realistic they know that their projects are risky and why, but choose not to mention what those risks are.

So copying and pasting UKOG PR is of course going to be 'positive' - but this board is meant for discussion about the company and posters with knowledge will post about the projects from different perspectives depending on their knowledge base and explain why the're negative relative to UKOG's opinion about the outcome.

At the moment UKOG has had little to say about the outcome of the testing at Pinarova apart from hoping it's successful based on an oil smell and emulsion returning to surface when the casing was set, after drilling had stopped.

As for HH whatever the reason nothing significant is happening, and Loxley, despite the High Court verdict going their way, there still haven't been any takers for the July 2022 pre-planned farmout, and although UKOG claimed they would start site preparation H2 this year thet haven't cleared all the conditions for starting any work.

So instead of doing anything there's a flurry of tweets (not worth an RNS?) about the Portland port project where 'meetings' are the most positive things to mention.

If they started the countdown now with the number of shares in issue it would take nearly 36,000 years at one a second. Perhaps the countdown should start at 3,000,000 which would take about 6 years at one a second, 2,999,999; 2,999,998; 2,999,997; 2,999,996.........

all because they've have a meeting in January this year with a Junior Minister and recently with unspecified people from ExxonMobil and Sumitomo - that's PR not credibility.

What's the estimated cost now? How long will it take now they've been working on the detail for 18 months - what's the NPV / RRR without subsidies - what subsidies / price guarantees will it need?

Yet we get this sort of nonsense:- 'UKOG is creating value in its Portland project and, given its size, in all likelihood substantial value.'

Maybe if, unlike their O&G ventures, UKoG could detail the commercial benefit of the project rather than relying on the Portland gas storage's 'green' credentials of it being a good thing - though perhaps even that is debatable as the market in the next decade is unpredictable - then apart from a huge upfront cost and years to possible cashflow, let alone positive cashflow, those investing in a supposed O&G E&P business, with the hope of making a fast buck on the next P&D, can understand how the business model will work.

It seems at the moment the expectation is someone else will just hand over cash, another company or the government - to no credibility UKOG.

That was written between July 2018 and June 2020

It goes on:-

'UKOG has a portfolio of direct and indirect interests in eight UK onshore exploration, appraisal, development and production assets, all situated within the Weald and Purbeck-Wight Basins of southern England. We are by far the largest acreage holder in the south of England, and the fourth largest in the overall UK onshore, with assets covering 791.5 gross km²'

and finishes with this:-

'We have built a portfolio that has the potential to generate significant returns for the Company and its shareholders. It includes a balanced portfolio of low-risk oil & gas production, appraisal and development assets as well as high upside exploration assets.'

little did they know,

Adrian / the most recently registered account and 22 desperate posts today,

Strange that HH is so good that when Finch loses in the Sopreme Court UKOG isn't going to drill but wants to farm out 49% equity in the licence to PPP. If the well was going to be a 'gusher' and/or risk free surely UKOG would drill it and keep their 85.64% interest and not drop to just under 43.68% (assuming everyone gives up 49% of their interest), making PPP the highest individual interest holder , but not operator- but HH-1 has proved that production drops off fast, and HH-2z has shown the risk of overwhelming water production - and surely they don't need another injector, though the lack of haste in converting HH-2z suggests that maybe injecting into a fractured reservoir with a limited interval of good poroperms is risky.

Are really working hard to help out YA / Riverfort shift those shares, UKOG with tweets about a meeting and the PR duo posting their positivity - though that hasn't made much impact today, not many shares traded so no big dump of shares, maybe not many want to invest in an O&G E&P company that seems to have lost interest in their core business.

But the only ones making money are YA / Riverfort, as they've demolished the SP from around 0.06p to 0.025p since July, and the BoD of UKOG drawing their full salaries whilst presiding over, well nothing much..........unless.........nah, pay them - no, surely no one believes two posters who have been positive about every failed activity. The only thanks they'll get is the opportunity to average down, again.

Unfortunately YA / Riverfort still have £1,500,000 worth (possibly quite a bit more) of loan notes left to convert having so far only been given 2,724,487,652 Equity shares to sell, apparently with no obligation to mention if they've been sold, nor only revealing the price they were converted at after they've shifted them.

Not sure an infrastructure project with huge costs taking years is going to excite traders wanting a quick buck - apart from yourself Adrian.

But when you're desperate latch on to anything supposedly positive and any poster willing to post UKOG PR.

The only posts ocelot can see regularly, apparently, is the daily new ones from Adrian - and it shows, doesn't know what's going on, thinks anything positive from UKOG is a fact rather than an opinion, and usually a wrong opinion.