Insidious13 Dec 2023 20:54
You're making claims based on what you want to happen, not what, from what has happened so far in Turkey,is likely to happen.
So far, after signing up to a supposedly 'potentially' transformational deal with AME who 'consider divestitures and joint ventures where the underlying values are not reflected in our financials', they drilled Basur-3 on a map that massively overestimated the size of the prospect. Then they shot 2 phases of seismic to find a location for Basur-4. Having found some oil in some shotholes they came up with a working hypothesis to essentially link this oil to an amplitude anomaly, that wasn't a DHI (Direct Hydrocarbon Indicator), in the Hoya (ie not Basur-4). This became the Pinarova well located near Kezer-1, a geothermal test that had flowed water with an oil cut in the Hoya, presumably AME and UKOG hoping the least they would get would be the same.
There were oil shows in the Hoya in Pinarova but a swabbed test did not return any oil but that wasn't in the anomaly section anyway. Belatedly UKOG RNS'd after TD was reached that there was an oil odour during drilling the Germik (above the Hoya) and, after drilling it when casing was set, emulsion returned to surface. Already cased the perforating guns used were too small and UKOG interpreted that the guns had not penetreted the casing - so 6 months later those guns are in the country awaiting shipment to the site.
Already UKOG are preparing the ground for failure with talk of a deeper accumulation at Pinarova being where the shothole oil might have come from.
No direct oil shows, just a smell, and a slick of oil from somewhere when the casing was set are not encouraging signs that the Germik will flow - not sure, apart from saving face or lack of understanding how long or how expensive it might be, why they've persevered with securing the bigger guns when could they have drilled slim hole to that depth again then been able to test it either open hole or with smaller casing in weeks and probably cheaper. Couldn't have been just to delay the bad news?
In the meantime YA / Riverfort have been busy making sure they don't lose. Still no RNS about the conversion price of the 1,424,487,652 second tranche equity shares they've been given. Today's vwap is about 0.0216p so just to show how profitable it can be to drag the SP down-
On November 14 there was a 60,000,000 sell at 0.02708p - value about £16,248.
OK small beer, but if they were to convert the shares they've been given at today's vwap the it would reduce the debt by £12,960 - meaning they would profit by £3,288 or about 25% - plus 4.5% added to the loan, and some warrants, price based on a different fomula.
Of course today's sale at 0.205 would have lost about £665, reducing the profit to about 20% +4.5% - and it'll be even easier for them to profit if the SP rises in the next 15 days with a guaranteed 'buy' price of 0.0216.
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