Member Info for Penguins

ZYX,

The CLN holders already have £1.16mm to be conveted so the £500,000 due before 16 Feb is just more shares needing to be issued when requested.

Could UKOG issue shrodinger shares that do and don't exist until RNS'd while the SP is above the nominal value, or even below the current nominal value if that happened, but RNS'd after 16 February, re-priced and above the new nominal value.

Otherwise surely there is a provision in the contract as to what happens if UKOG can't issue shares.

Noticable they RNS'd the GM notice almost certainly after they knew that Pinarova was a dud and expected the SP would crash on that news, though the lack of shares to hand over to the CLN holders was an issue after the CLN RNS on 23 Jan as that soaked up the available shares.

As for the GM resolutions UKOG have voters with a gun to their head, though they could have been honest as to what appears to be the reason for the GM - no authority to issue more shares, little headroom above the nominal value with the possibility of going below and still a lot of loan note debt to clear.

Given the 8,438,550,000 shares they had authority to issue when the SP was around 0.07p in early May 2023 getting to 16 February 2024 having raised £3.75mm but still 'owing' shares for £1.66mm of that is not a great result, though probably more of a disaster for pi than UKOG.

Vernonya,

The consolidation is 10 to 1, but it's combining that with the nominal value dropping to a hundreth of the current nominal value that could enable the SP to drop around another 99% before hitting the new 'floor'.

UKOG's problems are the SP being close to the nominal value, all the authority to issue shares at the 2023 AGM is used up and there being (assuming the £500,000 tranche of loan was taken in November, but not mentioned in the January loan note RNS) about £1.16mm of loan notes out there, and another £500,000 tranche before 16 February.

But assuming everything is passed.

After the GM, with authority to issue 50% more shares, UKOG will be free to issue shares against loan notes even if the vwap had dropped below 0.01p before 16 Feb - the new price, 0.1p, above the old nominal value of0.01p, and vastly above the new revised nominal value of 0.0001p.

and thus the death spiral could continue.

If they could agree a deal with the CLN holders who after 16 February would, assuming UKOG haven't exceeded their authority to hand out shares before that, have £1.66mm of notes to convert.

Not sure what the vwap has been over the past couple of dayx but assuming it's about 0.000125 then that would mean over 13 billion shares, plus 4.5% taking it to just under 14 billion shares. Then there's all those warrants (+33%), though they're priced at +40% -- that's 4,5billion shares priced ar 0.0175p. - and of course there's already a lot of warrants issued at higher prices.

Then there's the option for £2 million more loan notes.

Confetti factory is in overdrive. Assuming the consolidation is approved those share numbers are divided by 10 - but the percentage of the company remains the same.

Ocelot,

Maybe if you didn't filter almost all non rampers you might realise that UKOG's projects are up s**t creek - currently without a paddle.

Possibly no wells drilled this year, maybe HH-2z converted and some seismic shot, and lots of tweets about Portland port.

Situation normal, UKOG stringing along pi for another year - faithfully repeated here.

Ocelot,

the only assets that have proven reserves are HH-1, Horndean (10%) and Avington (5%) when it restarts production.

in the last annual report these totalled £1.73mm. Plus about £2mm of 'decommissioning asset (?) and property, plant and equipment. Seems that's what the market recognises - mcap £3.7mm.

The rest is mostly expenditure chasing unicorns - but UKOG don't give details apart from future value of HH (£11.4mm) based on further drilling and hope - but possibly not based on the 43% they'll end up with after a PPP farm in if it happens and PPP drill HH-3 - oh, and it's successful. The remainder is presumably money spent in Turkey, Loxley and possibly some for BB and the Portland project.

Still, as long as ocelot believes.........

You hope

Loxley, there's been no mention of any interest since July 2022 when the 'pre-planned' farm out was initiated; HH, not this week and if PPP have bad news before then, having been silent about the two workover wells since early December, that may be seen as a negative.

Bit of excitement but UKOG will depend on others to move forward on Loxley or HH.

and as long as they get their authority for issuing 50% more shares at the GM there soon could (will) be loads more shares just from the CLN so far (the number depends on about £1.16mm divided by the SP and consolidation) - and they are committed to take £500,000 more before 16 Feb according to the CLN RNS in June.

SRBS,

Originally the deeper accumulation was the Hoya amplitude anomaly they were targeting with Pinarova. Because nothing was found in the Hoya it became maybe the formation they just tested, but before the test they covered the failure with suggestions of a deeper accumulation tbut they don't know where it is.

It's trying to string things out and claim Pinarova wasn't a complete waste of time as some posters have suggested since it was decided to drill it.

UKOG never even presented a proper map of Pinarova, and Kezer with it's 'heavy' oil cut was said to be at the apex of the structure so chasing that will only repeat that result, and Pinarova was only 400 metre away.

According to the RNS there's still £1,300,000 of the loan notes to be converted.

Ibug recently calculated that since the AGM UKOG have issued 8,438,550,000 shares and also pointed that exactly matched the authority to issue shares.

So any shares issued under the loan note before the GM will exceed the authority the Bod has to issue shares.

With a share price of 0.011p the authority requested to issue 50% more shares (regardless of the 10 to one consolidation) will have a value of about £1,650,000.

So if the loan notes are converted which is money already received by UKOG and probably spent there's little left for new raises and if UKOG take the February £500,000 CLN instalment UKOG would again require more authority if the SP remains at this level.

So the authority requested by UKOG to issue shares at the GM far from enabling further fund raising appears to be to cover mostly loan notes already issued, and at the current SP insufficient to cover the supposedly committed to £500,000 before 16 February - any coincidence that's the date of the GM?

Adrian.

you do post BS:-

'When i tweet a decent video . Say of a rig arriving at HH. My tweet gets 1000s of hits :)

Its because they are informative. And as you know Sanderson and PR are crap. So silent Steve makes me populare on twitter with investors and swampies alike. This site use to be good for shareholders but woke Craig in admin and you greens have driven them over to out and in to telegram groups etc.

FOTH 🤠👀'

Can’t remember you posting a video here....and when you tweeted videos of rigs or tankers you chose when to tweet them to your advantage (as pboo has pointed out) – and for tankers speculated about production increasing significantly – when it has more often dropped.

Once upon a time maybe people believed you and thought there was a chance that production could increase, now with oil tankers down to 3 every two weeks unless you’re tipped off, and with BKP now cancelled that won’t happen any more, you’ll be lucky to see one.

As for twitter you even managed to get an account banned on that platform, here you were permanently banned after several temporary bans for being abusive on this and the Angus board. You're now repeatedly banned because you aren't allowed on this board and you insist on posting incessantly - mostly trying to discredit posters that post accurately and justify their opinions about the risks of UKOG projects, and sometimes because you're still abusive to other posters.

Ninetails, as I pointed out earlier the posts by rampers (including Adrian) that the results would be fantastic to encourage others to buy shares, then selling (or claiming to) before the outcome is RNS'd, show that they don't believe what they post,

No doubt Adrian will return to ramp on the next news, and sell (or claim to have sold) if there's a P&D.

Adrian,

First of all will PPP farm-in, you sound dubious.

Even if DL is keen PPP need to get Alba to agree - maybe the terms aren't to their liking rather than DL's involvement. Do they want less of their equity contributing to the 49% as it seems the deal was dreamt up by UKOG so UKOG should lose disproportionately more HH equity, or is the 7% too generous (@ £50,000 per percent) just for some seismic. UKOG were paying about £300,000 per HH percent prior to mid 2019 - Tellurian's 35% cost £12mm, £342,000 per percent.

Then PPP have to fund the seismic 100% - though UKOG as operator will be in charge. The need for seismic indicates uncertainty about where, or if, there is an updip location for HH-3 - it could be like the post Basur-3 seismic that resulted in not drilling the Basur structure at all. Shooting then processing and interpreting the seismic guarantees even if PPP farm in soon the drill will be some time down the road and looking at the latest map it's practically guaranteed the seismic won't confirm that optimistic mapping. Even if PPP go ahead to drill it won't be in H1 2024 and they need to fund £4.25mm of the cost 100% - will the US operations generate the funds to pay and the result may be the well intersecting a water conduit like HH-2z or one nearby like HH-1.

Despite the initial rates RNS'd for CT #1H in November there's been silence since, including about the water cut and no update about the CT #4H workover, is ominous.

Ocelot,

when will you realise that UKOG keep stringing you and others along (I suspect that the rampers tou don't filter who appear for P&Ds and you probably 'recommend' aren't fooled though - selling or lying about selling before results drop) - and the more you repeat UKOG'S propaganda the more ridiculous it is to keep repeating it and then finding out how wrong it is.

UKOG have used the Supreme Court challenge as an excuse for doing nothing at Horse Hill only recently to justify (unsurprisingly) doing nothing at BB (there's a theme here), yet they have progressed everything for the HH-2z conversion, except the conversion - UKOG claim it would save £250,000 a year, surely an easy win - but now do they have the cash to do it, and despite your confidence there are risks that it could make matters worse.

But the judgement isn't listed on the Supreme Court's website for next week.

Whether or not Alba can agree the PPP farmin it would be interesting as to how PPP's workovers are going, unless of course they intend to fund the farm in, initially £350,000 for the 3D, with placings - the radio silence since early December about the CT wells is surely nothing to worry about - it never has been with UKOG - except every time it happens?

Not sure that the Resan licence looks promising, many dry (two now courtesy of UKOG), and a non-commercial 'discovery'. Still spouting BS about the deeper accumulation that they don't know where it is (or even if there is one) - and while operating costs may be cheaper failure still means wasted cash - and there's a suspicion that UKOG are carrying AME's Pinarova well costs. How much has the 'cheap' Tukish venture cost, probably more than drilling Loxley (definitely if you add in the Portland Port gas storage costs so far) but Loxley is risky, not properly addressed in the CPR which has definitely one error, and probably two, in the assessment of the GWC in Alfold - a major part of the decision to close the structure to the east between two seismic lines and supporting the location of the drill site. The Loxley well cost without a farminee would be prohibitive for UKOG, without a massive rise in SP - the new authority, which may be mostly swallowed up by the CLN holders continuing to convert anyway, would at the current SP level only gross less than £2mm. Proceeding to prepare the Loxley site without a farminee at least paying their way would be madness.

Is the next activity such as a drill rather than a plan, or news, about something far in the future - or maybe not happen at all.

Whilst HH-2z conversion could happen soon does UKOG have the cash, and that's just a saving of £250,000 a year assuming it works, otherwise Loxley won't happen unless there's a farm in - and UKOG preparing the site without a farm out is ridiculous, HH drilling needs PPP to be successful - and they've gone radio silent on their worked over wells, and apparently the Supreme Court judgement being in their favour - though not listed for next week.

No doubt there will be chancers piling in but are they really going to hang around for activity with little chance of happening before H2 22024 at the earliest, and quite possibly never - or for the long term Portland gas storage project with no cash flow possibly this decade?

As for Turkey the RNS is full of BS and is vague - something to hide?

Was this test truly justified? - seemed a few here predicted and explained why failure was likely from before the first perforating from the fact the targets were shallow, the Germik only had a smell whilst drilling, the oil in the bottle could have come from anywhere being displaced while inserting the casing and there was no previous well identifying any of Pinarova's shallow targets as reservoirs?

No details - how tight was the Germik, what's the evidence for it being on the down dip edge of a Kezer structure - a well that only flowed 'heavily' (but never quantified) oil cut water. UKOG has never presented a structure map at any level for Pinarova, just an amorphous outline of the amplitude anomaly.

Claiming that any oil found likely indicates it's a spill or leak from a deeper accumulation needs justifying - why? In fact there was no mention at all whether water or oil was recovered during the testing, and acidising suggests the formation was tight.

Investors were sold a pig in a poke - and certain posters were happy to promote it - often the same ones who appear when a P&D was in tthe offing making wild claims and rubbishing posters giving realistic opinions.

and finally what of the claim by AME that UKOG was carrying their costs?

Insidious,

Any chance you can remind us when that's been true for UKOG.

Triumph of misinformation about the Kimmeridge and as so often seen no explanation of risk from the company - and of course clever buying then selling by SCDM and a helping hand by UKOG installing what they called a 'production' completion - suggesting the indications were so good the testing was a formality - they had to remove the production completion soon after as it failed to produce.

Of course despite the failure BB was declared a success as it apparently rediscovered the Kimmeridge was extant across the Weald, only previously realised from tens if not hundreds of previous wells and savvy geologists.

Unfortunately it appears that until UKOG has tried every avenue in a testing sequence they can stay silent - only successful intermediate tests need to be RNS'd immediately.

No doubt Pinarova will not be declared a failure, even zero flow will be an encouragement to continue the search for 'Eldorado' which of course didn't exist.

There's a few typos I can't be bothered to correct in my previous post - but with all the zeros I've misquoted the current nominal value as 0.001p when it is 0.01p -hence the problem with an SP of 0.01825p, not even twice the nominal value.

Insidious,

Explain 'early days'.

They've drilled two follow up wells to two uneconomic 'discoveries'. One a confirmed failure and the other with no success in the primary and secondary target and now testing an interval possibly already tested without any sign of flow.

The 'Turkey' plan was to drill the Resan Basur feature which, whilst UKOG tried to suggest was like fields in Kurdistan, was a lookalike to an adjacent field operated by AME and I would hope UKOG had all the data on - including wells missing the reservoir, unexceptional initial production flow rates and rapid decline. All things UKOG failed to mention.

They've shot 2 phases of seismic to identify a location for Basur-4, but chose a redrill down dip of a failed geothermal,wel,that had 'heavily' oil cut water - though mentioned no specifics - but that heavily oil cut water wasn't in the formation now being investigated.

There are plenty of ells across the licence, Strangely having presumably not done due diligence after Basur-3 was drilled UKOG revealed the Resan part of the structure had water problems, having included it in the OIP / possibly recoverable oil in their initial description of the transformational project.

Now they are probably aware of the initial attempts to test post last weeks perforating they have recycled news of Loxley, repeated claims about interest in the Portland Port project and now requested authority to add 50% to the share pool to fund both of these despite previously having raised funds for the stated purpose - whereas it appears they may not (legally) be able to issue any more shares to the CLN holders - though previously they have held back RNSing the issuing of shares under the CLN for months.

As regards the shares requesting a 10 to 1 consolidation they've also reduced the nominal value of shares to £0.000001 from £0.0001 which was becoming problematic - with any more bad news the SP might have been close to the nominal value and unable to issue shares at a price below the nominal value.

At today's SP a 10 to 1 consolidation would mean a SP of 0.1825p but the new downside limit to shares being issued would be 0.0001p - why reduce the nominal value to such a low figure?

Yet there's posters desperately claiming everything is hunky dory, looks like maybe they forgot UKOG's ability to destroy the SP, and why UKOG go radio silent about results and bought too many on the hope of a second P&D on the Pinarova results - or failed to sell on the P&D that fizzled out on the news of testing starting

So just a consolidation and if the SP manages to stay around 0.2p (after consolidation) raise less than £3mm.

They already raised for Loxley prep - the CLN:-

'The facility provides the company with working capital at competitive terms to fully fund its planned key UK and Turkey activities over the coming year'

and the extra for the Portland project was by the last placing little more than a we3k ago 'The Placing's proceeds will also provide the Company with a further source of general working capital to progress its existing UK/Turkey projects.

Perhaps instead they should:-

1) sell the Portland gas storage project to their interested international trading house, or get them to pay the costs that they've raised for anyway - any cashflow from the project is years away unless they sell anyway

2) get a farminee before starting work on Loxley, proving someone else sees value

3) give a Frank assessment of Resan and HH so that 'investors' can understand what their supporting - and what the Portand Port project is costing.

But they have a problem that there's billions of shares needing to be issued to the CLN holders that they have no authority to issue if ibug is correct - probably the real reason for any further raise.

SRBS,

'Rig up' can just mean assembling equipment.

If there was a rig it wasn't in the pictures on 25 Jan when they were recovering the perforating guns.

Ibug,

Could be they reported the water in barrels not cubic metres by mistake - the well would be uneconomic with that amount of water.

But tweeting about the Loxley CPR several days after showing pictures of a spent perforating gun at Pinarova looks desperate. Are we about to get silence about Pinarova 'testing' while they try and get some oil out of stone.

Since 'implementing' the farm out of Loxley in July 2022 there's been no mention of any interest by anyone in Loxley unlike most companies who will mention there's interest or even negotiations in progress.

Maybe farminees have been wary, probably more of the technical risks than the risk of the High Court judgement going against UKOG.

Strange that this was missed from AME's Business Strategy on their Web site - this is number 4 in the list:-

4- Unlock net asset value of the portfolio..

AME asset base includes large positions in several long-running pieces that generate little to no cash flow. We will continue to high-grade our portfolio and consider divestitures and joint ventures where the underlying values are not reflected in our financials'

So AME only farm out their high equity rubbish.....and UKOG went into the Resan licence joint venture and paid 100% of the first well, Basur-3 and the seismic that should have been shot first - as the well was drilled in the wrong place.

How desperate were UKOG to distract from the HH failures of HH-1 producing water and HH-2z no longer expected to be a producer? PI fed the nonsense about fields in Kurdistan whilst wells on E Sadak, just a few km away, were missing the reservoir and if successful declining rapidly. Surely UKOG knew this but failed to mention anything but an initial rate almost certainly on test.

Then in the 2022 AME Annual Report this about the Pinarova well:-

'The only exception will be testing the Resan shallow accumulation. Not only will these wells be quick and cheap the costs are carried by our JV partners and if successful would be a first in the region'

So.....none of the Pinarova targets were recognised reservoirs in the area and has AME paid any of the costs - or is UKOG paying most (or all) of the costs?